Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
--
Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

@BigChocFrenzy

Awkward position for the police:

Greater Manchester Policee@gmpolice*

Open letter from GMP's Chief Constable, Ian Hopkins @CCIanHopkins

Is he saying the police answer to Andy Burnham and not Westminster?

If Westminster puts Manchester into tier 3, does that mean they won’t police it?

This is all a bit frightening/ civil war like. I have never had to worry about who “controls” the police before.

UK today

(last few days in brackets)

Cases 16,171 .... (15,650 18,980 19,724 17,234 13,972, 12,872, 15,166, 13,864)
Deaths 150 ....... (136 138 137 143 50 65 81 87)

Richard@RP131 UK chart of cases by specimen date, overlaid with 9-day doubling

Increasingly looks like cases starting to level off, with doubling rate increasing

It's probably already been discussed but have PHE stopped publishing the weekly surveillance reports? The last I can find are from the 2nd October
www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports#history
The report that went into greater detail for each area of concern/restrictions was particularly informative. Perhaps there are too many areas to report on individually now!
If anyone has a link to where they are now (or are they not available any more) I would be grateful. Thank you

Elmbridge numbers definitely slowing down a little

Infections per 100000 for the 7 days up to date given below:

11/10 132
10/10 136
09/10 137
08/10. 148
07/10. 144
06/10. 132
05/10. 128
04/10. 108
03/10. 94

40% of all deaths are in care homes. 40% of the elderly - or the over 80s are not in care homes. Possibly higher for the over 90s but doubt it reaches 40%. It is a massive factor that increases susceptibility and so should be controlled for.

Hmmph imo, attempting to put GM into Tier 3 against the opposition of its mayor - and its Tory & Labour MPs - could meet with mass non-compliance

... and the police don't want to get involved

• they have to police there long after Covid is gone and it can take decades for the public to forgive police who force something against the local public

@Eyewhisker

40% of all deaths are in care homes. 40% of the elderly - or the over 80s are not in care homes. Possibly higher for the over 90s but doubt it reaches 40%. It is a massive factor that increases susceptibility and so should be controlled for.

... but care homes are a rough way of sorting out the most frail of a particular age

If we exclude them, then we are left with untypically fit elderly people

Just as the young and middle-aged who die tend to have serious underlying conditions

That is again sorting out the healthy and the vulnerable within a particular age range;
it's just more noticeable as the age group rises

It is very othering when we see "only XXX people under 60 without underlying conditions have died"

Why add to this othering "only ZZZ people over 80 not in care homes have died"

The police will enforce the law, that's their job. However the emphasis placed on different crimes (and hence the amount of manpower devoted to dealing with them) depends on what they think the local population want. The elected mayor is supposed to represent their population.

@YoshimisMum

It's probably already been discussed but have PHE stopped publishing the weekly surveillance reports? The last I can find are from the 2nd October www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports#history The report that went into greater detail for each area of concern/restrictions was particularly informative. Perhaps there are too many areas to report on individually now! If anyone has a link to where they are now (or are they not available any more) I would be grateful. Thank you

They got combined with flu surveillance and moved to here (it’s in the opening post on this thread too)

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports

[quote BigChocFrenzy]Richard@RP131 UK chart of cases by specimen date, overlaid with 9-day doubling

Increasingly looks like cases starting to level off, with doubling rate increasing[/quote]
It would be interesting (as an ECV parent) to know what that graph looks like for the population aged year 11-16 and also year 12- age 24, as this is where the current spread seems to be happening.

It might be that community spread in other areas is being helped by mitigation measures, which don't always apply to those groups. So it would be interesting to see how the cases by specimen date look for those age groups cf the rest of the community.

@MREx thanks - I'm interested in what proportion of the employed population were furloughed, but too tired to look at it straight away.

I do think GM will go into the top tier in the next few days, hopefully with AB’s support and some financial help too. Politically AB will be in a tricky situation if cases keep rising. But shocking of Boris to blame AB specifically when in fact he, 10 GM councils and all 27 MPs (9 of them tory) are in agreement. He has a lot of influence but very little actual power.

Cases seem to be flattening in GM which is good but obviously we need them to go down and something different needs to happen to enable this. More support for local t&t is most important though why we have to go into tier 3 to do this when it was promised months ago is unclear.

I also interpreted the police statement as saying he answers to AB not Westminster which is interesting.

[quote alreadytaken]@MREx thanks - I'm interested in what proportion of the employed population were furloughed, but too tired to look at it straight away.[/quote]
It’s in the ONS report that was linked above, figure 6.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-statistics-september-2020/coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-statistics-september-2020#geography--countries-and-regions-at-31-july-including-gender-breakdown

Can also get them on a spreadsheet if you prefer
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/918762/CJRS_Statistics_September_2020_tables.xlsx

Why are cases levelling off? (assume they are)
No real measure has been put in place, tests are still very hard to come by (London), no SD, no masks...

slight sidenote: if we thought we can get a hold, there is a rally today with 1000s against lockdown in central london. Just to make sure that we cannot drive down cases efficiently :(

Chief constables are appointed by the Police & Crime Commisioner for the area, who is elected locally
(used to be by the local Police Authority)
So the CC answers locally, not nationally

Only the London Met Commisioner is appointed by the Home Sec

hmphh
Test and Trace app - exposure notifications - exposure checks- number of keys

Well, this is reassuring 🤔

@ceeveebee
Ah thanks - wrists rightly slapped for missing this on the first page post!
Unfortunately, the report I mentioned isn't there - does anyone know if it appears elsewhere? Many thanks

@TheSunIsStillShining

Why are cases levelling off? (assume they are) No real measure has been put in place, tests are still very hard to come by (London), no SD, no masks...

slight sidenote: if we thought we can get a hold, there is a rally today with 1000s against lockdown in central london. Just to make sure that we cannot drive down cases efficiently :(

Rule of 6 brought back in a few weeks ago; hospitality closed after 10 p.m. so we may be seeing these measures leading to flattening off although more likely to be fewer university students left to catch it.

Number of tests processed have increased quite a bit though - the few people I know who tried to get a test in the past couple of weeks managed to get one - also London.

@PatriciaHolm True. I meant in the worst case scenario, if the virus spreads through the whole population before a vaccine is rolled out, it's likely that most people will end up losing someone they know. @BigChocFrenzy Well, if the IFR turns out to be 0.5%, that makes it even more likely that we will all lose someone we know by the end of this pandemic, unless a vaccine comes along soon.

It's all pretty dire, but we're luckier than people who lived during previous pandemics, as science gives us so many more tools to mitigate against the disease, and increase the odds in our favour.

@BigChocFrenzy thread nearly full 😳

Never fear, Praying next thread prepped and ready to fire off after a few more posts

Statistically, we need a new thread in just under 4 days atm
I must plot our thread duration and see if it is linked to changes in case trends

@Pertella

hmphh Test and Trace app - exposure notifications - exposure checks- number of keys

Well, this is reassuring 🤔

Oh dear! Is both contact tracing and Bluetooth turned on? If so, it doesn’t sound like your app is working!

@BigChocFrenzy Because when we report IFR we want this for the population. As you said above, the IFR will vary between countries depending on the age profile of their population.

If you are doing statistical sampling, you adjust for how representative the sample is of the population. I didn’t say remove care home residents, but adjust for it. So if say, care home residents are disproportionate in the sample - and react differently than others - then adjust accordingly. This is exactly what is done with age.

This thread is supposed to be on data and objective. Not performing a valid statistical adjustment for fear of ‘othering’ is putting emotions first.