Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 25

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 25 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍
--
Links added to OP:

• SAGE Table of Interventions with impacts and R
• PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors by region, area

Links changed

• PHE Covid surveillance is now Covid & flu

You also have to ask what people are doing in Blackpool which is proving to be problematic.
Mixing no SD drinking, coach and train down. Blackpool has always been a go to resort for some Scots.

@Reastie back then the prospect of dying at home in pain and without treatment was more commonplace. Now it seems brutal.

For me the prospect of a loved one, or indeed anyone dying a miserable wretched death in pain on a trolley, or at home is something to be avoided at all costs.

I accept that there will be a death toll whatever we do. But I can't accept the prospect of people being denied access to healthcare and dying in that way.

The school my kids go to (secondary) have made masks mandatory in communal areas this week.

They sent out questionaires which came back with a huge majority in favour of doing this.

@hopsalong can u ask for go surgery for the paperwork and go down to your local hospital. They will do walk in blood tests. You don't need an appointment you just wait. But u have to have the paperwork relating to what they are testing for

My husband is a nightmare to get a vein and so he always had to go to the hospital

@littleowl1 I have signed up for your paid service, thank you. I would like to add a couple more councils - do I need to wait until Friday/Saturday to do this? It isn't letting me do this at the moment.

I dont work for the NHS, I do listen to those who do - and I have some empathy.

Discussing language is a way of avoiding discussing/ distracting from a message.

When restrictions are proposed someone will suggest that we dont have any and allow the virus to run it's course. We have a suggestion above that would mean "few weeks of total chaos and disaster, but would have been fairly time delimited. " It takes more than a few weeks to get to the 65% or so antibody levels where virus transmission slows - at least in a society where people can restrict their activity to avoid infection.

Cancer treatment would not have resumed any faster if there had been no lockdown, the problem was making spaces safe to treat them. With inadequate PPE and no tests for staff (something that is still not happening enough) there is a risk of treatment killing a patient faster.

Extra capacity - if you mean the famous Nightingales they dont have staff. It was even suggested they might be staffed with St Johns Ambulance people and virgin cabin staff. Well they have their first aid certificates but it's bad enough that we have to have doctors with minimal training intubating patients, St Johns ought to have more sense than to try. Slightly better if you draft in the dentists again.

NHS staff are already exhausted from tying to catch up on the backlog. They dont get tested regularly, their children are being sent home from school more often and at times they havent been able to get their children tested quickly enough so they can get back to work.

Already yes people have empathy but also with those losing jobs, going into poverty, increased DV.

There are two sides of the equation and both bring harsh stories.

Which is why this thread is good for dealing with data. It is a rational space in an emotive situation.

Hopsalong I haven't been able to see a GP in 2020. I went to A&E in August with stomach pain and was meant to have follow-up tests. It's now the middle of October and my surgery hasn't yet been able to give me a blood test That is really bad but it isn't all of the NHS, I've seen my GP and had a telephone consultation, a blood test and a flu vaccination. I'm not sure what you can do about it but your surgery doesn't sound like it is coping.

It’s not distracting bet it’s a better way to communicate your version of a vague phrase is probably different to other people.

Which is why using a number for exponential growth instead helps us talk clearly.

Report published 14th October 2020
Cases data from week 5th-11th October 2020
Data extracted covering testing up to 11th October 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 3282, an increase of 391 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 659 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 18.1%.

There has been a rapid and worrying increase in cases in Liverpool since the 1st September, when there were 94 cases per week, to the current level of 3282 cases per week.

Of those cases where ethnicity was given, 86% people were recorded as White British and 14% people were from a Black and Minority Ethnic background. The majority of cases (60%) were in those aged under 40 years, whereas 23% cases were in those aged 40-59 yrs. Of all the confirmed cases in the last seven days 56% were female and 44% were male.

There is now a widespread community transmission of the virus in Liverpool, with new positive Covid-19 cases recorded mainly in the working age population.

The wards with the largest number of confirmed cases are Central (380 cases), Greenbank (191 cases), Everton (141 cases), Princes Park (136 cases), Norris Green (135 cases), Riverside (135 cases), Warbreck (120 cases), Picton (109 cases), Clubmoor (109 cases) and Cressington (107 cases).

Between 07 - 13 October 2020 there were 119 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 23% (n=27) were Covid-19 deaths

@MarshaBradyo We've discussed the economics in past threads - essentially those economies that have most effectively controlled the virus are seeing the least economic damage. I dont see any point in rehashing past threads, the evidence is in them.

The first lockdown will mean lower deaths because it gave time to develop treatments/ learn more about the virus. This government is incompetent and has made a hash of restrictions. We've discussed that at length too.

@hopsalong I'm sorry to hear of your experience with the NHS.

I have seen my GP twice since March. Both times they chatted to me on the phone and then saw me in person.

I feel very lucky.

Arguably, it may be better to have 80% of people isolating for 1 week (with potential testing on day 7) than only 20% isolating for 2 weeks

I said this a couple of weeks ago. A week is easier in so many ways.

Also, if someone has a negative test, believe the test. I don't really see the point of testing if people still have to isolate for the full period, other than for statistical reasons only.

Already yes they have. It doesn’t mean we can’t discuss whether a two week lockdown is the right way to go now.

I don’t agree it’s a given even past discussions with on the chart showing economic damage.

Obviously other posters think it’s worth talking about too.

The wards with the largest number of confirmed cases are Central (380 cases), Greenbank (191 cases), Everton (141 cases), Princes Park (136 cases), Norris Green (135 cases), Riverside (135 cases), Warbreck (120 cases), Picton (109 cases), Clubmoor (109 cases) and Cressington (107 cases

Interesting, I recognise a lot of those areas, and they are city centre/university areas or quite/very deprived areas.

@hopsalong Gps are often doing phone or video appointments first. Some people prefer them. Rashes are difficult to diagnose but seeing it in person wouldnt make it any easier, clearly your son's rash was seen and I assume you got some treatment or advice for it.

If the gp's receptionist wont book a blood test speak to the doctor and say you'll be making a formal complaint unless you get tested. If a test is necessary they'll arrange it. They can also try and get you medication or prescribe an alternative, I'm afraid they wont be able to get medication for you always because they dont control drug purchases. Sometimes there are supply issues but they cant offer alternatives unless you have told them there is a problem.

NI is calling out for funding. There is a very immediate issue with livelihoods now.

Economic considerations are an issue with lockdown even if you say countries do better if they have them. It’s too abstract.

If you put in place higher restrictions you need immediate funding or businesses close. It’s a current specific issue.

I’m not a fan of another lockdown. They’re blunt instruments. My area (East Kent) actually suffered its worst transmission period in late May-June, very deep into lockdown. We now have the third highest death rate in the U.K. because of the deaths that accumulated in that period, and currently some of the lowest cases numbers in the country (a touch of herd immunity, perhaps?).

We’re going to be living with this virus for a long time to come. We need to understand it and adapt to it — utilise intelligent prevention techniques that address the way it spreads (airborne, in clusters). Medical grade masks in any enclosed spaces where prolonged mixing is occurring is vital.

We've discussed the economics in past threads - essentially those economies that have most effectively controlled the virus are seeing the least economic damage. I dont see any point in rehashing past threads, the evidence is in them.

That was true for countries that acted quickly back in March. The question is what the optimal strategy is now. I am leaning towards accepting the need for a circuit breaker but it is only a tool to buy us time. What we really need to figure out is how to run the economy at the maximum possible capacity while maintaining R under 1.

The government clearly made many mistakes but (i) they did indeed follow the science back in early March and (ii) the broken test and track system goes way beyond our views on Dido Harding. I am starting to believe the current version of T&T was meant to fail from the very start when we (i) focussed solely on forward tracing (i.e. following up on immediate close contacts of infected individuals) instead of prioritising backward tracing and (ii) set the self-isolation bar too high (at 14 days) which led to widely spread non compliance.

Winter I agree with your posts. I’m not yet convinced either way on circuit breaker, depends on numbers (healthcare and R) but the rest definitely

@MarshaBradyo I come here to find, and discuss, data. Controlling the virus leads to less economic damage. There is limited data on the effects of different measures of virus control and even less on their economic impact so not a great deal to discuss. Plenty of other threads to discuss topics where there is no data.

If you want to discuss the limited data - very little, for example, evidence that gyms should close (although @BigChocFrenzy I've put a spin class superspreader on the data thread). Limited evidence for transmission in hospitality but none that shutting at 10 p.m decreases that and the evidence is from places where mask wearing by staff probably was not happening. Not exactly evidence but risky events that shouldnt be happening suggesting more enforcement is necessary www.mylondon.news/news/east-london-news/london-covid-barking-shisha-bar-19101082?fbclid=IwAR1BnZcEQfum7ZD1S6KwX6w0y5XuOJfDHxln27wwp0DSE8bd4clFV9VRY5g

Winter travel that's a good idea.

To begin with, the scenes from Italian hospital was shocking, it was very clear why we needed to be careful.

The messages are lost, people are bored, they cling into soundbites, herd immunity, anti bodies, wash hands etc, the children don't get it...

Already I disagree

This is if great interest - ‘What we really need to figure out is how to run the economy at the maximum possible capacity while maintaining R under 1.‘

You cannot divorce economic considerations from discussion on what to do.

@PrayingandHoping / @hopsalong - our local hospital phlebotomy used to allow walk-in, but switched to appointment only for blood tests June/July roughly. GP issues a form that they can post or you collect, or the consultant just puts it in the system, call to book, bloods taken. It's actually very pleasant that way because the waiting room is so quiet.