With no vaccination imminent, how long are we going to keep doing this?

[RubyandBen]

Disrupted education that will impact on some DC forever, sending perfectly healthy DC home from school for 2 weeks again and again, lockdown of university students who will only have mild symptoms (I know there's always one or two who suffer more but the vast majority won't), destroying whole industries hospitality, travel, retail, hundreds of thousands unemployed, huge recession. Not even going to mention the long term impact on all the OTHER non covid illnesses that have been shelved.
If there's no vaccination imminent what's the plan? Are we going to carry on in this horrible limbo that's going to destroy too much or admit defeat and realise people will die?
Before I'm accused of being a mass murderer, I've followed all the rules but don't know how much more I can take of this.

I've been wondering this.

We pretty much carry on like this until treatments get better, there is a vaccine or both. There is no alternative. Society would cease to function if hospitals were overwhelmed. That would crash the economy anyway as well as a huge amount of death. Schools would close through illness or petrified parents watching the news showing people dying on trolleys. Not locking down won’t help people access treatment for cancer as it won’t be safe if hospitals are full of Covid. As crap as it is, frequent, short, sharp lockdowns are what we have to do at the moment.

What do you think will happen to the other illnesses if our NHS is too busy with covid patients though?

@RubyandBen So, what healthcare for other stuff do you think will be available if hospitals are essentially rammed with covid cases (even if people don't die, can be in hospital for a long time) even if the vast majority are older, and/or more "vulnerable"? What is your actual plan?

My DC aged 14 is off again for 2 weeks. The second time since Sept and work is not always set remotely. Multiple cases in his school, his brother's secondary and the schis I work with

Yet my relatives in the SE and SW say not one case at their school. So my y10s can't access a full education, yet others will, because of a postcode lottery . The inequality grows daily.

We can't continue this division. If you are in an area not really impacted then you might suggest that nothing changes, but this is not working in schools in the hardest hit, inner city areas.

I think it will all depend on numbers in hospital. Way too many people are awaiting cancelled hospital appointments/operations, health assessments.

What is your actual plan?

Isn't this why we have an elected government, allegedly headed by a very intelligent man?

Isn't that their job?

The results from the Oxford vaccine are due within the next few weeks. I would say we are ever closer to the vaccine then ever. However, in the meantime we don't have any other option than to go through these disruptions. We know numbers of cases are increasing, hospital admissions are increasing, and deaths are increasing. We need to do what we can now to bring these numbers down. Unfortunately, that will mean having an impact on businesses, social interactions, disruption to some student's education etc. Taking these sacrifices now we buy us some time.

@randomer of course, but there are so many threads on here with people saying "they can't take any more of this" and often referring to other health issues that the nhs should deal with. If people believe that people with covid who need hospital treatment shouldn't get it, hence avoiding stuffing hospitals then have the guts to say this. I don't agree but clearly some do.

I think it’ll carry on through this first winter virus season

We’ll know a lot more about how to use restrictions as a result, how the NHS is coping (what levels mean an adequate amount on non-covid work can be done) plus more info on whether any of the most promising candidate vaccines are likely to come good

In spring, as the sun gets stronger, case numbers may ebb anyhow

Whilst we are carrying on like this disrupted education is becoming a massive problem.
Cases rising in all schools around here and In my dd year 11 class there are more children off than in school.
The postcode lottery for students right now is grossly unfair.

Unfortunately there was a piece in the DM today and an Oxford vaccine person has said that there is no vaccine until July 2021 at the earliest - and then it would take months to vaccinate enough people.

I live in a low incidence area - or at least I did. The figures in the last few days have soared.

I don't know what we can do. I don't think the government has handled things well (understatement) but every European country is in the same shit. The virus doesn't listen to plans, legislation or hope.

I know people are saying society will cease to function if we stop these restrictions, but I think it will if we carry on doing it. Another few years of this and the economy is absolutely broken and education irreparably damaged.

And before someone says it "put all covid patients in the nightingales" - these nightingales will be staffed by whom exactly?

It's a new virus - it cares nothing for social inequality - it just wants a human host to lodge in. The frustration is understandable; but we just have to bite the bullet until it is supressed by whatever means.

And a lot of people don't just have covid. A cancer patient will need input of specialists and treatment that is more than "covid" related.

@IrmaFayLear

Unfortunately there was a piece in the DM today and an Oxford vaccine person has said that there is no vaccine until July 2021 at the earliest - and then it would take months to vaccinate enough people.

I live in a low incidence area - or at least I did. The figures in the last few days have soared.

I don't know what we can do. I don't think the government has handled things well (understatement) but every European country is in the same shit. The virus doesn't listen to plans, legislation or hope.

He didn't say that! What he actually said was:

"Professor Pollard said that he hoped the final trials could be completed by the end of this year but added: 'Life won't be back to normal until summer at the earliest. We may need masks until July."

I swear to god if I see another post stating that care for non-Covid illnesses has been shelved I’m going to scream. Some services were halted in the first wave. Things are being done very differently this time round.

We are working as hard as we can to manage our patients in our service. We will not be able to effectively do so however if:
Staff go off sick with Covid.
Staff go off sick with stress.
Staff have to self isolate because they live with someone who either has symptoms or who has tested positive.
NHS support services that we require to help us manage our patients likewise become overwhelmed with managing Covid patients and/or staff absence.

The NHS has no choice but to keep on keeping on. It will continue to do so even if hospitals become completely swamped by Covid patients, as seen in Northern Italy earlier this year.
The rules imposed on us now are attempting to find a balance to prevent another huge spike in Covid related deaths and our NHS continuing to function to allow care for all our patients.

Like it or not, how society behaves as a whole at this time will ultimately impact on how our health service functions.

@Rosehip10
And before someone says it "put all covid patients in the nightingales"
But why don't we? There's currently many areas in the NHS not working at full capacity. Transferable skills could be utilised and staff redeployed.

Education is increasingly and north south divide. Will the current y10 and 12 sit the same exam across the country?

Some have had no disruption, some have had no education due to closures since September.

Secondary schools should be on rota to prevent infection and to deliver education successfully. All secondary schools. Not just those in affected areas.

The north is suffering due to the ineptness of this government, and their is an increasing north south divide.

Thank fuck for our northern mayors who are trying to support their communities and not listening to Boris the knob

1. The head of the vaccine trials in the UK has made plain that she does not expect a sterilising vaccine - only one that approaches 50% efficacy.

1. Andrew Pollard (Head of the Oxford Vaccine Trial Team) said:-

'Until we've got a high level of immunity in the population so that we can stop the virus so most vulnerable people are immune, there is going to be a risk. Initially, we're going to be in a position where mask-wearing and social distancing don't change.

'Only when there is a big drop in serious cases will governments feel able to relax these measures. This is a very easily transmissible virus.'

The logical conclusion to be drawn from these statements is that the present restrictions are going to continue well beyond next summer if the vaccine is not sterilising (which appears to be likely).

As I keep saying, if 50,000 covid deaths are unacceptable this year, why would 25,000 be ok next year?

There is also an important subsidiary point which no one is talking about: hospital capacity in the future. The NHS can barely cope with a normal flu season. It will cope this winter because we are likely to be locked down and lots of other health care has been postponed.

How will it cope next year with normal flu and 50% covid deaths without restrictions being imposed.

We might have more treatments next year and the vaccine may be better than we accept. Also, excess mortality may not readily distinguish between flu and covid and they may take the same lives.

However, all things considered, there is a slightly ominous feeling about there being no return to "normal" in the spring.

I’m hoping for better testing and rapid testing so rather than say all kids in a bubble having to be off for 14 days they could all be tested sooner and get back to school. Rapid testing for teachers, that kind of thing, at a local level.

Even if a vaccine becomes available, it’s going to take time to roll it out and it’s not going to be offered to everyone anyway.

an Oxford vaccine person has said that there is no vaccine until July 2021 at the earliest
You are more optimistic than me.

I (probably wrongly) thought there was no HOPE until at least July 2021 meaning that they would not even know if the vaccine would work until then.

I like your understanding far better than mine!

What about the midlands?

My solution would be to put all the medically fit patients into the nightingale hospitals, leaving the hospitals for acutely ill patients. The nightingales could then be staffed by less qualified/skilled staff who could be trained up quickly.