With no vaccination imminent, how long are we going to keep doing this?

[RubyandBen]

Disrupted education that will impact on some DC forever, sending perfectly healthy DC home from school for 2 weeks again and again, lockdown of university students who will only have mild symptoms (I know there's always one or two who suffer more but the vast majority won't), destroying whole industries hospitality, travel, retail, hundreds of thousands unemployed, huge recession. Not even going to mention the long term impact on all the OTHER non covid illnesses that have been shelved.
If there's no vaccination imminent what's the plan? Are we going to carry on in this horrible limbo that's going to destroy too much or admit defeat and realise people will die?
Before I'm accused of being a mass murderer, I've followed all the rules but don't know how much more I can take of this.

The Oxford vaccine is being tested on UK residents in the next 2 weeks. The vaccine is not as far off as you think.

Schools are closing year groups regularly which is massively disruptive to education and working parents
Damn those schools, wanting to limit the risk to staff and other pupils when someone gets a positive test. How unreasonable, @Someonesayroadtrip

@Torvean32

The Oxford vaccine is being tested on UK residents in the next 2 weeks. The vaccine is not as far off as you think.

Fingers crossed. We need some good news.

@MummyPop00

To those comparing this to the 1918 pandemic & doubting our ability to bounce back from Covid, you have to remember we had just lost 700,000 young working age men in World War 1, huge war debt, coupled with another estimated 250,000 deaths from Spanish Flu (which killed more of our young than Covid does) in a much smaller population.

Yes, and the depression and WW2 had nothing to do with the Spanish flu (and much to do with WW1).

As for repeating the year, no. It won't work.

One option might be really to have a two week half term though, and basically add on a week every holiday to try to calm things down. So 3 weeks at Christmas, 2 weeks at Feb half term, 3 weeks at Easter. Schools would be teaching online as far as possible, but no face to face tuition in the extra week. I would have thought that was a good compromise. But it has to be understood that it's one week extra only, and no extensions (Arlene Foster looking at you). Sadly I don't think it can work because of childcare issues. And it still doesn't deal with the inequalities of some kids having to self-isolate and others not.

(I am obviously only talking about Eng & Wales, I don't exactly know how the Scottish holidays work outside the summer)

Scotland has October holidays, Christmas, Easter and Summer.

The problem is how will parents manage child care?

I think people would be more accepting of repeated lockdowns if they could see that the end was in sight. So if the Oxford vaccine (which is only one of many being developed) is ready by Christmas, then if there's a lockdown in January and the government are able to say "we're locking down for 2 weeks now while we finalise vaccine distribution to care homes", people are more likely to comply than if it's just "Oh, too many cases, better stay at home again".

The question is whether the government will actually get their act together. Hopefully they already have the logistics of distribution worked out, but I'm not entirely optimistic.

Another thing that could help is that the virus may mutate, and become harder to transmit or less deadly (it's very often the case that viruses become less deadly over time, because killing their host doesn't help their survival). Combined with more effective treatments, it could be a game-changer.

Bear in mind that Covid will only have been around for a year next month (and in general circulation for even less time) - already treatments etc have moved on hugely.

How can the government - or any government in the world - make any promises and say what the plan is? It’s not a question of “getting their act together” - they don’t know and nor does anyone. Do you think the much-lauded New Zealand has a vaccine ready and waiting, but they’re just not telling anybody about it at the moment?

There is no vaccine. There might be. There might not be. There may be one but not for months or years. It would be a lie and idiocy to tell people that there’s a lockdown for two weeks and then you can have a vaccine. Jesus, mother of Mary...

@stairway

My solution would be to put all the medically fit patients into the nightingale hospitals, leaving the hospitals for acutely ill patients. The nightingales could then be staffed by less qualified/skilled staff who could be trained up quickly.

We don't have a single 'medically fit' patient on our breaching capacity covid ward. What then? Our nightingale can't open as their isn't enough staff to make it safe anyway.

@Requinblanc

The simple answer is that we can't carry on like this.

People will accept a few more months of this maybe but at that point compliance and society will break down.

There is a lot of naivety in thinking a vaccine will magically appear in the Spring and everything will go back to normal and I don't see how people keep swallowing the fairy tale that 'circuit breakers' or lockdowns have any effect beyond a temporary and artificial reduction.

I can't see the rational in putting an entire population under house arrest and removing everything that makes us human (such as interaction with others) for something that the majority of people can survive.

The general trashing of the economy, the mental health crisis and so on will kill more people than the virus will.

Shield the elderly and the vulnerable (although they should have a say in this too), the rest of us need to start living again.

There is no scenario here where no one dies. It is fantasy to believe otherwise.

People have been saying 'people will only tolerate this for a few more weeks / months then....' since this started. No breakdown of society. People are frustrated and annoyed, totally, but on the whole, people will comply to a reasonable level that will help. Government aren't going to just go 'oh ok then, you've all given up so we will too, let's sack of the restrictions' 🤣

@IrmaFayLear

How can the government - or any government in the world - make any promises and say what the plan is? It’s not a question of “getting their act together” - they don’t know and nor does anyone. Do you think the much-lauded New Zealand has a vaccine ready and waiting, but they’re just not telling anybody about it at the moment?

There is no vaccine. There might be. There might not be. There may be one but not for months or years. It would be a lie and idiocy to tell people that there’s a lockdown for two weeks and then you can have a vaccine. Jesus, mother of Mary...

I'm saying that IF there is a vaccine by Christmas, then people would accept a lockdown which was providing breathing space to get the vaccine manufactured and distributed. If the government were able to say "one more lockdown to bring numbers down, but the plan from here on in is that we'll start vaccinating people", I think people would accept that. But if it's just another in an apparently endless string of lockdowns, people will be less compliant.

Raintreeleaves I was thinking that nightingales shouldn’t just be used for medically fit covid patients but also any patient that is medically fit and suitable obviously the two types will have to be safely separated. Certainly in my hospital there are plenty of patients that are medically fit but can’t leave the hospital as they are waiting for a POC or funding , or equipment to be delivered or even for a relative to have a negative covid swab. These kinds of patients do not need acutely trained medical and nursing staff. This would be a better use of nightingales as they would be easier to staff with less qualified people.

@ Blurp: agree, A definite plan would work. This vagueness, change in plans, reneging on previous commitments is the problem.

@IrmaFayLear

Unfortunately there was a piece in the DM today and an Oxford vaccine person has said that there is no vaccine until July 2021 at the earliest - and then it would take months to vaccinate enough people.

I live in a low incidence area - or at least I did. The figures in the last few days have soared.

I don't know what we can do. I don't think the government has handled things well (understatement) but every European country is in the same shit. The virus doesn't listen to plans, legislation or hope.

What he actually said was vaccine early next year and no restrictions by July....

In terms of hospitals and appointments being shelved I’m living that reality. I’ve got an appointment booked for next Friday for a colposcopy as a follow up for abnormal cells detected following a smear. I’ve already been told it’s been cancelled because covid. Not happy. Apparently they’ll re book when this is over.

@rainytreeleaves furlough ends this month and people are losing business which was not as bad so I think people will have enough

@Torvean32

The Oxford vaccine is being tested on UK residents in the next 2 weeks. The vaccine is not as far off as you think.

Hey

Vaccine if viable will take a couple of years to get to billions of people though won't it.

Meanwhile get into lockdown mode again folks. This is life for the foreseeable anyway. Lock up, lock down, lock up, lock down.

@Rosehip10

And before someone says it "put all covid patients in the nightingales" - these nightingales will be staffed by whom exactly?

Wasn't there some kind of (bullshit) claim that we were bringing in 40000 trained nurses and such from other countries to staff the nightingales? I remember a lot of friends sounding quite optomistic about that, but it didn't seem like something that would ever materialize..just more willy waggling I think. Like building them in the first place, despite knowing there are not staff to work in them

I find the 'covid will mean all other treatments will stop' arguments a bit odd, as the vast majority of hospitals/GPs round here have not been seeing people anyway. I know a fair few who had operations cancelled and such. You would think, if it was all about 'covid filling the wards' or whatever, that after the initial peak, things would go back to 'normal' somewhat, but they never did around here for some reason. Numbers were ridiculously low for months (well, our numbers werent even bad during the initial lockdown really) and still no catchup was played, I do wonder why. I accept that covid patients would make waiting lists longer ad have stuff cancelled, of course. However, it appears that even taking covid out of the equation..routing stuff is not getting done to start with, and hasn't for months now. Unless I am in a seriously unlucky area of course.

I thought we brought retired nhs staff back to employment. Where are they all now?

I swear to god if I see another post stating that care for non-Covid illnesses has been shelved I’m going to scream. Some services were halted in the first wave. Things are being done very differently this time round.

OK read this right after making my post..guessing it must depend on areas or something. But it is a fact that round here almost all treatments/clinics have been halted since March. Given they never got back to normal, there is not really any risk that increased covid cases will mean less help for other medical issues, for the people here anyway, given other medical issues have not existed for months!

I know a pain clinic will not be classed as important for some, but my last appointment was in March, I have asked a few times about when my next one will be (meant to be monthly at the min) and its always just 'sorry, unsure, covid'. While numbers are extremely low. Seems the same for surgery thats not 'emergency', my aunt has been on the waiting list forever for a hip replacement, cancelled in March, and now, again told 'because covid' even when numbers were very low.

Hopefully it IS just our area that is suffering this. But I find that unlikely. Though do see a lot of posts such as the quoted one around, so it seems at least some medical settings are continuing. Good for you, whoever can still get treatments and appointments, genuinely. But its nt like that everywhere. At all.

@Rosehip10

And before someone says it "put all covid patients in the nightingales" - these nightingales will be staffed by whom exactly?

Maybe the 50,000 extra nurses that Boris promised back in Nov 19

They'll be staffed by all the current experiences ITU staff. Because that’s what they need to operate safely if they are covering the full range of ITU procedures. Plus augmented from Amy other department.

Leaving major gaps in settings elsewhere - to the point where hospitals will have to sharply reduce care (certainly abandoning procedures for which you’d normally put an ITU bed on standby).

Either until outbreak is over. Or until next generation intensivists and ICU nurses have come through in augmented numbers sufficient to run both systems safely

I thought we brought retired nhs staff back to employment. Where are they all now?

Why on earth would they want to come back?! They are probably in their 60-70s and I imagine a large number of them them may have health conditions that put them at even further risk.

We can’t get even get our own staff to do Bank shifts because they don’t want to be in the environment for any longer than necessary.

The NMC also requires that staff who have been out of nursing for a certain period of time have to complete a “Return to Practice” nursing course, I doubt that has been done away with? Unless exceptions are being made? I imagine so.

But I stick to my original point of, “Why on earth would they want to come back?”

Maybe in the first wave the altruistic retired staff came forward but I’m not sure the same will happen this time round...:

Wouldn't it be a case of deploying retired NHS into non-Covid roles?

Also, it’s not just about retirees, I thought they were fast tracking medical students too?