Is Lockdown generally something favoured by those who are generally left of centre/public sector?

[Treesofwood]

I would say I am definitely left leaning, and am also not in support of lockdowns as a strategy. Infact in some of my dealings on here I have been accused of being pro brexit, hard right. Why would that be? Can you be left wing and pro freedom or are the two actually mutually exclusive? And what does Brexit have to do with any of it?

SheepandCow, what do you think a truly effective track and trace system would do that the current T&T system is not doing? I need to hear specifics, the before and after picture.

You didn't mention schools or universities in your 'One proper Lockdown' plan. What would schools do before, during & after the 'One proper Lockdown'? How long do you think the 'proper' lockdown phase would take?

You won't like my answer @lljkk
It's short-term pain, long-term gain.

We have plenty of examples to follow. In fact I bet we could get an adviser from one of the countries who's successfully taken containment measures. For a cheaper rate than Dido Harding.

Restrictioms for approx 2 months. Possibly 3. That's only so long because we let things get so wildly out of control.

Perhaps just one month of the strictest measures - schools, non essential shops, bars, pubs, etc closed.

Slowly ease out. Start to open up but initially reduced hours. Borders shut excepting essential imports etc (proper quarantine where necessary).

Truly effective test, track, and trace? First, no excel spreadsheet cockups. Next, enough testing capacity, and test results within 24-48 hours. Like Italy, Germany, and much of Asia, test all contacts of positive individuals. Not just those with symptoms

We should've done all this in February or March. Or even over the summer. It would be over by now (border restrictions aside).

But we didn't. It won't just go away. The way things have been - this kind of shitty not really normal on off on off everywhere in the country has different confusing ever changing rules. Want that to contine for about a other year? If not, we have to be prepared for temporary tough action. It's worth it to avoid 12 more months of this (and to save the longer-term economy).

Unfortunately too few in England seem to realise this. (Scotland gets it, I think, and perhaps Wales too).

In Germany clinically vulnerable children are being taught online at home by clinically vulnerable teachers who are WFH.

Italy has paid to set in place smaller class sizes and extra teachers.

Lots of countries have mask wearing in schools.

The WHO has a set of recommendations for making schools safer. We didn't follow most of these.

If we don't get on top of things schools will end up closed - for longer or disruptively on off on off, because the staff will be off ill.

We don't need to close schools for long. If we put in place some extra measures. Starting with WHO advice.

Interesting discussion.
However I don't understand how we can take proper containment measures when the virus is endemic in the uk. New Zealand and others took action before the virus took hold. That option is no longer available to us.
Lefty here. Against further lockdown. Too much collateral damage. I am not even sure you can have a really effective T&T system now. Too many cases and so many asymptomatic.

@Nappyvalley15
Melbourne had a bad outbreak (quarantine fuckup that won't be repeated bar intentional sabotage).

They didn't throw their hands up in the air and cry we can't we can't we can't. They rolled their sleeves up and took tough action. It's working. Shit whilst it lasted but their efforts are paying off.

Other countries have done the same. Italy has learned a lesson from March. Japan had to call a national emergency at one early stage. They took action to get on top of it.

Varied methods but action has been taken to a) contain Covid and b) keep it that way.

Of course we can do something. We're looking at another year of this. At least. We either continue letting it spiral further and further out of control, or we opt for short-term pain, long-term pain. Whingeing defeatist poms that we are, I unfortunately suspect the latter. Fast forward three months and things will be even worse.

Easier with fewer cases. At this stage in the pandemic there would be too much collateral damage.

There are no good options left on the table. We had our chance with lockdown 1. We can't go back and do a different type of lockdown. We would have no economy left.

People against containment measures. What do you think happens if we do nothing? Do you really think this will only affect The Others. Kill off The Vulnerable (elderly and disabled) and, morals aside, leave society and economy unaffected?

Do you not see that large numbers of essential workers are members of The Vulnerable Club. Doctors, nurses, health and social care workers, teachers and school staff.

How do we get cancer or mental health or even non urgent routine healthcare with an uncontained virus running through? Hospital beds will be full and staff off ill (Covid, Long Covid, or PTSD).

Who staffs the school when teachers and other staff are ill?

Long Covid is real. It's not confining itself to the poor or elderly or those with pre-existing conditions. We're only just learning about it. Evidence shows so far it can cause heart, lung, or kidney damage, trigger type 1 diabetes, and cause blood clotting issues. What other problems are we storing up for the future?

We need to get a handle on this asap or things will only get worse. Much worse.

@Nappyvalley15

Easier with fewer cases. At this stage in the pandemic there would be too much collateral damage.

There are no good options left on the table. We had our chance with lockdown 1. We can't go back and do a different type of lockdown. We would have no economy left.

What do you think we should do?

There are no good options. Like it or not it is working its way through the population -especially the young. I would probably do more to direct resources towards shielding the vulnerable. It won't be perfect. There is no way to avoid people dying. No option offers us that.

There are millions of The Vulnerable. Including many essential workers - doctors, nurses and other HCP, social care workers, teachers and school staff etc.

The risk of disabling Long Covid - potential heart, lung, kidney damage, type 1 diabetes, blood clotting issues - means everyone is vulnerable. Who knows what problems we're facing in the future.

It's not as simple as letting The Others die Failing to contain this will have huge knock-on effects on society and economy. It's impossible to avoid.

Containment saves the longer-term economy.

The countries who've taken effective containment measures all have healthier economies.

My parents and PIL are very much telegraph /Mail reading right wingers. They are in the older (PIL over 70) category and hate lockdown due to restrictions ON THEM. My parents genuinely seem to feel that it would be ok anyone older to take their chances and not receive medical care if stretched, as they have had a long enough life as it is (they also seem to be ok with vulnerable categories locking themselves away indefinitely).
They are on the individualistic / freedom side.

I would say I am centre-ish to left leaning, though I find I don't easily fit any box really. I don't really support lockdown as a general measure of defence because of its effects on the vulnerable and the economy as a whole (unlike parents and PIL I am not so bothered about effect on me, as have house, job security and garden etc). I think everything else should be tried first, although I think lockdown probably has its place if the alternative would be the removal of medical services from others to treat Covid patients and/or the piling up of Covid patients in corridors etc and I do fear the effect of frontline staff in the NHS in particular of a system overwhelmed by Covid.

I am employed in the private sector and well paid WFH - I would happily pay more tax to support those whose sectors have been forcibly closed, think it is part of the social contract.

The containment measures you suggest will not work at this stage of the pandemic in the uk. They are also impractical and cruel.

sorry, that was in response to sheep

@SheepandCow

Who knows what problems we're facing in the future

Well we know for sure we’ll be facing thousands of cancer deaths from treatment and referrals not happening, malnutrition due to increased poverty caused by unemployment, children having poorer life chances and ultimately life expectancy due to missing education and their families now being in poverty, increased domestic violence and child abuse injuries and deaths, and a mental health tsunami.

I suspect that some countries will lose SheepandCow's designated "effective" status fairly soon. But who knows.

I know someone who does contact tracing.. he says a chief problem is people don't remember. It's not that they don't want to help, they just don't remember where they were & what they did & who they saw 7-14 days ago. Especially when they are feeling quite ill.

I'd struggle to remember anything specific about my activity 7-14 days ago.

Yes indeed @Ecosse

You've explained very well just why we need to urgently take containment measures. We can't run society or the economy unless and until we do.

Like you say, cancer patients are unable to access treatment - because no-one can whilst beds are full and staff ill. And if they do manage to find a bed, they risk catching Covid. As recently happened in a Scottish hospital. Spread through the ward. Not something you'd want for a vulnerable cancer patient.

Mental health too. I read a report just the other day about how psychiatric inpatients were disproportionately affected. Lots of deaths on the wards. Of course new patients won't access treatment. What with beds being full and staff ill.

And yes those poor abuse victims. Imagine being ill with an abuser. It's well known abusers use vulnerability to harm their victims. Still the new awarenesses and concern is something to be positive about. Pre pandemic 2 women a week were killed by a current or ex partner. Perhaps with increased attention the sector might get more funding and support

You're right again. We need to protect businesses and jobs. We know the countries who've contained Covid have healthier economies and open businesses.

Bit surprised you're concerned about life expectancy. Thought you viewed over 65s (and particularly the elderly in care homes) as expendable?

Contain Covid = save the long-term economy.

@Nappyvalley15

The containment measures you suggest will not work at this stage of the pandemic in the uk. They are also impractical and cruel.

And it's not cruel to continue as we are? More jobs lost, many avoidable deaths, lots of long-term disabled with Long Covid, delayed hospital treatment, ongoing on off closures of schools, shops, pubs, etc - and no return to any kind of normality for a very long time. That seems more cruel to me. I must have secret Scottish heritage. They definitely get it more than England.

The risk of disabling Long Covid - potential heart, lung, kidney damage, type 1 diabetes, blood clotting issues - means everyone is vulnerable. Who knows what problems we're facing in the future.

I'm left of centre. I'm very worried about this ^^

Restrictions are favoured by the intelligent and the humane.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/ending-covid-19-via-herd-immunity-is-a-dangerous-fallacy

That's us 🐑 sheep @cbt944
www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170418-sheep-are-not-stupid-and-they-are-not-helpless-either#:~:text=Reality%3A%20Sheep%20are%20actually%20surprisingly,destructive%20creatures%20on%20the%20planet.&text=Intelligent.

Sheep are lovely! Baaa!

I don't know where the idea has come from that if someone does not feel that lockdown is the right course of action means that they must think that it needs to be allowed to rip through society.

Despite the guardian article being posted as a gotcha, it is actually saying what many people who are uncomfortable with further lockdowns are saying, that you need effective measures to suppress the virus, keep it at bay whilst also addressing the wider picture. The government's current whack-a-mole method is damaging on all accounts.

@TheGreatWave

I don't know where the idea has come from that if someone does not feel that lockdown is the right course of action means that they must think that it needs to be allowed to rip through society.

Despite the guardian article being posted as a gotcha, it is actually saying what many people who are uncomfortable with further lockdowns are saying, that you need effective measures to suppress the virus, keep it at bay whilst also addressing the wider picture. The government's current whack-a-mole method is damaging on all accounts.

The idea comes from people repeatedly saying it. Read any thread on this board and you will see it: lock away the 'vulnerable', they say, and let us get on with things. All through this thread people are bleating on with much the same thing. When it is repeatedly pointed out that the 'vulnerable' are also working in hospitals, etc, or that it is inhumane to thereby ultimately sacrifice the lives of people of an older age who 'only have a few years to live' anyway, they say, or of younger people with good long productive lives ahead of them and with families to support to die unnecessarily, they crap on about the economy - as if the Tories have zero interest in money, and are doing these measures to be virtue signallers!

Given I posted the Guardian article, I would suggest I might be more aware than you of my motive. It was not posted, as you state, as a 'gotcha'. It was posted as a wake up call, or alternatively read the writing on the wall. Which, I suppose, is the purpose of those 80 scientist writing their exhortation to the government. Not that those people repeatedly banging on about letting it rip are prone to reading or taking in anything of an evidentiary nature published in the Guardian or what they like to call MSM, or of appeals to have a heart either, for that matter.

The UK does not have an effective track and trace system, or an effective quarantine system, or any sort of proper border control. As these things, managed well elsewhere, and implemented early in the pandemic also elsewhere, have not been instated effectively in the UK seven months, I can't imagine how you think that these are a viable alternative to restrictions of movement or full or partial lockdowns.

I don't agree with hitting moles.