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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

975 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2020 21:52

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
45
PrayingandHoping · 12/10/2020 11:53

@IloveJKRowling

there is very little data coming out from schools so often the school discussion on this thread has nothing to do with data analysis and is general school discussion.

This is no more true than the comments above about care homes and why there are not more hospital admissions from there.

It's one rule for everything else and another for schools, on MUMSNET where the average poster is more interested in schools than a lot else. Hence more discussion and analysis of the data or lack of data.

I do think discussion of glaring gaps in the data should be allowed. Otherwise we're just completely uncritically accepting what data the government is collecting as the only picture.

The discussion about care homes above was about data that was linked about care home admissions into hospitals

Absolutely fine to point out or ask if anyone knows a certain data point from schools

But the other long schools discussions not connected with data or even lack of take away from the thread IMO

HairyToity · 12/10/2020 11:54

Wrong thread! 🙈

Crockof · 12/10/2020 11:55

That's how I understood baked in. Basically too bloody late to save.

Am worried about the three levels as they now admit that the whole country is having a resurgence. I can't see how letting the south carry on until they are at the same rates as the North is beneficial for anyone.

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2020 11:55

Robert Peston @peston
Van Tam also warns of growth now in the virus further south. He does not seemingly believe the higher prevalence of COVID-19 can be confined to the north.

We are being prepped for a national lockdown aren't we?

MarshaBradyo · 12/10/2020 11:56

@RedToothBrush

Robert Peston *@peston* Van Tam also warns of growth now in the virus further south. He does not seemingly believe the higher prevalence of COVID-19 can be confined to the north.

We are being prepped for a national lockdown aren't we?

Hard to say. We don’t have much £ to throw at it.
lurker101 · 12/10/2020 11:58

@TheSunIsStillShining - don’t be too disheartened by the number - SkyNews have televised the briefing, so I was watching as we’re I’m sure a number of other people, but won’t have been counted in that figure.

Castiel07 · 12/10/2020 12:04

I was thinking the same, im down south and ours have gone up to near 50/100000 and that has gone up dramatically in the past few weeks.
I don't want extra restrictions, but I'd rather they clamp down a bit now then end up having to close businesses and have hospitals gradually filling up.
Also schools around here are mainly closing there bubbles or a whole school because of staff contracting coronavirus not pupils.
My sons school (he is in a sen school but have 2 other hubs and then a main school site) has had 4 staff test positive in a hub (only about 10 pupils in the hub).

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2020 12:06

Liam Thorp @liamthorpecho
Merseyside MPs just invited to a zoom meeting with Matt Hancock - with 10 minute warning

Looking like we will hear VERY shortly whats likely to be announced this after, as obviously these Merseyside MPs are talking to the Echo...

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2020 12:08

Inzamam Rashid @inzyrashid
NEW: Health bosses in #Liverpool telling me it is “highly likely” they will need to utilise Nightingale hospitals because of the increasing admissions of #COVID19 patients in their hospitals.

JVT confirmed highest number of Covid patients in hospitals are in Liverpool. @SkyNews

Hospitals to be overwhelmed...

pinkpip100 · 12/10/2020 12:10

I'm a long time lurker on this thread. I know questions about schools are frowned upon but I am completely confused following the report I have just read on the BBC about Van Tam's briefing today. It states:
On the infection rate in schools, Prof Jonathan Van-Tam says: "Actually if you salami slice the infection data very carefully across the school age bands, what you actually see is very low rates of increase in infection up to the age of 16."
He says the infection rate then picks up a bit in the 17 and 18 age bracket.
"We already know children are not drivers of spread in the community" as they are for the flu virus, Prof Van-Tam adds.

But later:
Prof Van-Tam says that the virus thrives on human contact, particularly in closed spaces, crowded spaces and in close contact. He also says there is an emphasis on the duration people are likely to be in those spaces and the level of noise.

Does anyone have links to data that supports what Van-Tam asserts in the first paragraph? I didn't realise the age data had been broken down to such an extent as we usually see a 10-19 bracket, which would cover upper KS2 at primary, all of secondary and first year at uni/higher education setting. But Van-Tam definitely suggests that infection rates in all except year 12 upwards is very low. Is this backed up by data?

Also, given that the conditions for spreading the virus described in the second paragraph are an almost perfect match for the conditions in most secondary schools (possibly primary too) why would this be? Given that we know children and young people can definitely catch Covid-19 and spread it....why is it not spreading more in schools?

Any help to understand this would be very much appreciated.

MarshaBradyo · 12/10/2020 12:10

@RedToothBrush

Inzamam Rashid *@inzyrashid* NEW: Health bosses in #Liverpool telling me it is “highly likely” they will need to utilise Nightingale hospitals because of the increasing admissions of #COVID19 patients in their hospitals.

JVT confirmed highest number of Covid patients in hospitals are in Liverpool. @SkyNews

Hospitals to be overwhelmed...

Do you mean overwhelmed or Nightingale to be used?

I have no issue if it’s the latter. There were many annoyed they hadn’t been used on here a while back. Overall it’s good we have them.

MarshaBradyo · 12/10/2020 12:11

@pinkpip100

I'm a long time lurker on this thread. I know questions about schools are frowned upon but I am completely confused following the report I have just read on the BBC about Van Tam's briefing today. It states: On the infection rate in schools, Prof Jonathan Van-Tam says: "Actually if you salami slice the infection data very carefully across the school age bands, what you actually see is very low rates of increase in infection up to the age of 16." He says the infection rate then picks up a bit in the 17 and 18 age bracket. "We already know children are not drivers of spread in the community" as they are for the flu virus, Prof Van-Tam adds.

But later:
Prof Van-Tam says that the virus thrives on human contact, particularly in closed spaces, crowded spaces and in close contact. He also says there is an emphasis on the duration people are likely to be in those spaces and the level of noise.

Does anyone have links to data that supports what Van-Tam asserts in the first paragraph? I didn't realise the age data had been broken down to such an extent as we usually see a 10-19 bracket, which would cover upper KS2 at primary, all of secondary and first year at uni/higher education setting. But Van-Tam definitely suggests that infection rates in all except year 12 upwards is very low. Is this backed up by data?

Also, given that the conditions for spreading the virus described in the second paragraph are an almost perfect match for the conditions in most secondary schools (possibly primary too) why would this be? Given that we know children and young people can definitely catch Covid-19 and spread it....why is it not spreading more in schools?

Any help to understand this would be very much appreciated.

He is relaying the data.
NeurotrashWarrior · 12/10/2020 12:11

It's been useful to have school discussions.

Scroll past if you don't like.

School data does matter but they're reflective of the community transmission. They'll add to it by taking it home to parents (and vulnerable people) but closing a school or bubble for 2 weeks are supposed to be the break for the school.

Individual school will go under completely if rates don't go down, which is where I think there should have been better prep, eg use if community spaces.

EXCEPT that when I then think through the logistics and equipment and extra staffing needed to facilitate it, you really are talking doubling the nation's teachers and TAs.

The U.K. mostly follows an inclusive approach to education; so many TAs support a child or small group with additional needs in each class.

Not to mention how hard it would be so hard as we rely on so much it equipment etc, and not least for safeguarding procedures etc. Fire practises.

School dinners, which in some areas are increasingly hot again.

How do you transport them children safely? Parking, and so on.

Schools aren't going to close; they may individually and may need to go to a blended learning model in some areas (in working on my subject and what that looks like today.)

When I take a step back, the gov know education is fucked due to class sizes and numbers. They've been woefully shite at reassuring staff and providing the money, but they dug a hole for themselves there by de centralising education.

I DO think they should be giving more info and data so we as teachers and school leaders can decide if we should wear masks more. Especially for SEN schools. And I do think they should allow more parents to take pupils out and provide state funded online education which is partially there with the bbc and wouldn't be too expensive in real terms.

MarshaBradyo · 12/10/2020 12:12

Obviously we are split on usefulness of school discussion. Many preferring to keep it to another thread. I don’t see why that would be an issue. People can access both threads.

NeurotrashWarrior · 12/10/2020 12:13

why is it not spreading more in schools?

V high numbers of asymptomatic cases.

ScaramoucheFandango · 12/10/2020 12:13

(The Zoe app map has looked awful for Merseyside recently and up very rapidly.)

Just to say thanks for this thread @BigChocFrenzy.

PrayingandHoping · 12/10/2020 12:14

@pinkpip100 did u see the heat map by region and age earlier on that Van Tam showed in the briefing

From memory (as it's not online yet that I've seen) the age brackets were 0-15 and then 16-29. The 0-15 brackets were light light yellow (showing little cases, although I think they may have been numbers too which you couldn't make out during the presentation but when the slides come out helpfully they will be visible)

There have been over slides and data come out in the last month that also shows 16+ to be where the increases in cases takes off

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2020 12:15

Do you mean overwhelmed or Nightingale to be used?

Health chiefs in Manchester have said in the last hour that other services were starting to be affected due to the pressure of covid. So that sounds like overwhelming a very real prospect at this point.

sirfredfredgeorge · 12/10/2020 12:16

But Van-Tam definitely suggests that infection rates in all except year 12 upwards is very low. Is this backed up by data

As you note, there's no public data which breaks down the 10-19 age group, so we don't know, the evidence for the below 10 year old does support his contention. It's unlikely that he would not have the data, and unlikely that he would lie about it.

Also, given that the conditions for spreading the virus described in the second paragraph are an almost perfect match for the conditions in most secondary schools (possibly primary too) why would this be

There could be multiple hypothesis that fit the conclusion, such as the amount of virus produced by children is lower than adults, the amount produced by asymptomatic children is less, the duration of asymptomatic cases in children is shorter than in adults, the mechanism that produces "super-spreaders" doesn't exist in children.

There's not enough evidence of the why to say yet, but there appears to be enough of evidence of the how.

EducatingArti · 12/10/2020 12:18

[quote MRex]@EducatingArti - all the information about how attendance is gathered and calculated can be read by looking in the link:
explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak.
Early info on using code X is here: www.gov.uk/government/publications/school-attendance/addendum-recording-attendance-in-relation-to-coronavirus-covid-19-during-the-2020-to-2021-academic-year.[/quote]
Thank you MRex
I will look into this when I have a moment.

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2020 12:18

www.standard.co.uk/news/health/positive-student-coronavirus-tests-home-address-computer-glitch-a4568656.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1602500918
Positive student coronavirus tests being recorded at home addresses due to computer glitch

Students testing positive for Covid-19 at universities are being wrongly recorded as cases in their home area due to a computer problem, the Standard has been told.

The problem is said to be due to a “data enrichment” process which means details given by students are being overriden with information from NHS databases, which links them to their home district. Richmond council identified the suspected discrepancy after it saw Covid-19 cases soar to being the highest in London.

So is this happening only in Richmond, or is it more obvious in Richmond because it has such a high level of university students who come from there?

pinkpip100 · 12/10/2020 12:19

Thanks all, not actually watching it as trying to make some pretence of home schooling dc - we are currently isolating due to dd2 showing symptoms at weekend.

Will try to catch up on it later to see graphs etc. I am still confused about why it wouldn't be rife in schools given the conditions. If it is due to most being asymptomatic, surely it would still be a driver in community transmission as children take it home to parents, pass to teachers etc?

RedToothBrush · 12/10/2020 12:22

As i say hospitals in danger of being overwhelmed

www.hsj.co.uk/7028617.article
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LIVERPOOL UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST
Exclusive: Covid-hit city begins scaling back electives and prepares staff for redeployment

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24
sirfredfredgeorge · 12/10/2020 12:23

So is this happening only in Richmond, or is it more obvious in Richmond because it has such a high level of university students who come from there

I'm sure it's happening everywhere, but the areas where it will be of significant impact is areas without their own university accommodation who send a higher proportion of their residents to university. As someone asked in the last thread, it fits with the rises in Elmbridge (just down river from Richmond with Weybridge etc. in), also would fit the rise in Hampton - although they also have a small amount of uni accommodation.

MarshaBradyo · 12/10/2020 12:25

@RedToothBrush

As i say hospitals in danger of being overwhelmed

www.hsj.co.uk/7028617.article
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Exclusive: Covid-hit city begins scaling back electives and prepares staff for redeployment

I read that as preparing for influx, with alternative provision and some scaling back.

Overwhelmed sounds more negative ie not able to cope.