Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

But the other long schools discussions not connected with data or even lack of take away from the thread IMO

Evidence this has happened? I genuinely haven't seen it.
We even have teachers creating their own data charts in order to comply with the need for provision of data.

Mostly we have analysis of data or lack of data, discussion of research or lack of research, or of research that would be helpful. There's just more about it because more people are interested.

I bet there are other forums not dominated by parents where the discussions focus more on other settings.

.....
Sorry, @Mrex I was out

That looks excellent data from PHE and has all those pulldowns for area, type etc

I can add this to the OP ?

Anyway, I'm not in favour of banning people from talking about schools data / lack thereof and discussion of this on mumsnet.

I wouldn't mind a pure data thread though, separated out from analysis.

@NeurotrashWarrior

why is it not spreading more in schools?

V high numbers of asymptomatic cases.

But it IS spreading in schools.

If you look at the PHE surveillance report for week 41, you can clearly see that educational settings are the setting with by far the most Covid-19 outbreaks -- a third. I quote directly from page 18 of the report on ARIs:

"The number of incidents in each setting with at least one laboratory confirmed case of COVID19 are reported below.
918 new ARI incidents have been reported in week 40 in the UK (Figure 14):
• 172 incidents were from care homes where 116 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 47 incidents were from hospitals where 38 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and 1 tested positive for rhinovirus
• 325 incidents were from educational settings where 252 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 7 incidents were from prisons where 5 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 216 incidents were from workplace settings where 132 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 30 incidents were from food outlet/restaurant settings where 24 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 121 incidents were from the other settings category where 88 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2"

@RedToothBrush

The following is being pointed out on twitter:

Psyber Attack @psyberattack
Serious question. Why do you think hospital admissions from care homes are so low?

England has had 651 care home outbreaks in the last 21 days, with 273 hospital admissions and 951 deaths 🤷‍♂️

Hospital admissions data
t.co/9Lbs8Ze9bt

Outbreak data
t.co/JtB5aisrER

I'd say thats worthy of a question or two...

... "273 hospital admissions and 951 deaths"

That proportion is very surprising

A pure data thread is about the last thing I want. Let’s face it there are some highly knowledgeable and rational people on here and obviously we want to hear the analysis.

Anyway we are very split in what we find useful and meaningful.

Could we not just try to ensure all posts either link to data or an appropriate source, or contain discussion of a previously linked source or data?
That would hopefully filter out subjective posts without completing censoring a relevant subject.

• completely. I cannot type today sorry.

Once someone knows they are dying, many would prefer to do so in familiar surroundings

However, I am concerned that those in care homes who become ill are not being given hospital care
Stats are that even among the very frail elderly , most would survive Covid with treatment

@RedToothBrush

Robert Peston *@peston* Van Tam also warns of growth now in the virus further south. He does not seemingly believe the higher prevalence of COVID-19 can be confined to the north.

We are being prepped for a national lockdown aren't we?

i don't think so (yet) mostly because all the 'southern' MPs (overwhelmingly tory) will not stand for widespread business closures and mr sunak doesn't seem to have much money left in the pot to support them.

Could end up with quite a lot of 'tier three' type restrictions in many cities though. And likely tier two everywhere else. I just hope they bloody sort out the test and trace.

But it IS spreading in schools.

I love a good school discussion but the problem with this topic on this particular thread is that we keep going around in circles.

What we do not know is how many people are impacted by each outbreak in educational settings. According to the lSAGE documents (which I have referenced and copied/pasted here at least four times so I am not doing it again) up until the end of June a typical outbreak in educational settings included two members of staff and no children. The only outlier case was the nursery outbreak in Milton Keyes.

Of course, the schools have now gone back full-time and the circumstances might have changed. I am sure SAGE updates at some point will include the latest info on spread in schools. However for now there is not enough data to suggest that school outbreaks are driving the transmission.

There are still areas in the SE, SW, East of England with < 20 / 100,000 7-day incidence
so their (many Tory) MPs & council leaders would be lobbying fiercely against lockdown

www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table

[quote MRex]@Quarantino - they are in the weekly surveillance data file published each Friday: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports.
Test totals are only updated on weekdays, presumably that's why aligning cases and tests takes juggling and is only reported weekly. And it might be a delayed percentage to allow for test result lags. I'm not sure.[/quote]
Agh thread is moving too fast. In the last thread, @boys3 posted a screenshot of a chart of all local authorities and their test positivity rate. From a quick browse on my phone i can't see that in the first two reports linked. Sorry if I'm being blind!

Just to clarify - I meant proper SAGE, not self-proclaimed Indie Sage. Don’t know where ISAGE above came from - sorry.

However for now there is not enough data to suggest that school outbreaks are driving the transmission.

Agreed. Equally there is no data to suggest that they are not. we don't know either way.

Just to add, I'm very interested in data regarding schools and obviously this shouldn't be a school-free thread.
I'm less interested in the numbers of village halls posters think might be able to be used in their village or arguing about anecdotes.

The more objective schools data we can find the better.
I suspect we will always have the issue of identifying when/ where an infection occurred (in many settings).

Thanks for the Standard article re Richmond.

I am still asking the question though- IF the address details given by students is being overwritten in a data enrichment process which removes their Uni details and replaces them with their GP address (which can only be happening if students supply NHS numbers, otherwise how would they be able to match up just name and DOB with anything else- it would be too imprecise) then how do the council know? how are they seeing this secondary data which shows the address as Leeds or wherever? If they are BOTH there, which they must be otherwise Richmond council wouldn’t have said the bit about Exeter, Leeds etc, then are we sure which postcode is actually being used for case data?

If you look at the maps, including the one shown this morning, Richmond, Elmbridge etc seem to be in a spreading area South West of London where cases are rapidly rising. It doesn’t look like an abnormality.

Saying the rise in this area is all to do with students elsewhere is extremely worrying if true as NO case data in the country can be relied upon or if not true is extremely dangerous as people in this potential new hot spot are in denial about the rise in their area. Is it just a way to try and avoid tier 2 restrictions?

Total conjecture, but would it not be that they can see the location of where the test was carried out? Eg Richmond address but tested at a walk-in centre in Manchester (or wherever)
Interestingly the ward I live in, very similar demographics to Richmond (having lived in both) went from 0-2 cases every week to 30 in a single jump. So that makes me wonder whether a similar issue here too.

Van-Tam has access to more detailled data on age split:

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/oct/12/uk-coronavirus-news-boris-johnson-local-covid-restrictions-three-tier

"If you salami slice the infection data very carefully across the school age bands, what you actually see is very low rates of increase in infection up to around the age of 16

and then picking up a bit in the 17-18-year-olds as we drift into that age bracket ... of really quite intense transmission.

The evidence that there is significant transmission in schools is not really borne out by the increased infection rates
and indeed
we already know that children are not drivers of infection and spread in the community
in the same way we know they are for influenza, for example.

@Quarantino

Just to add, I'm very interested in data regarding schools and obviously this shouldn't be a school-free thread. I'm less interested in the numbers of village halls posters think might be able to be used in their village or arguing about anecdotes.

The more objective schools data we can find the better.
I suspect we will always have the issue of identifying when/ where an infection occurred (in many settings).

I totally agree. Alongside the use of TAs, face mask etc. That's not to say those aren't all entirely valid points and suggestions but it's not data analysis

It's v easy to get caught up in those discussions and they can be very interstellar but it does take away from the objective of this thread

Andy Burnham @andyburnhamgm
I am grateful to the Deputy CMO for recognising this point. Too many rush to blame the public in the North without understanding this.

There is a certain amount of politics at play here but theres also some important data too.

The question here is really why didn't numbers in the NW reduce to the same degree as London over the full lockdown?

Because if you are proposing another lockdown as a means to reduce the number of infections, this might be quite relevant...

...it suggests its possibly not going to work to the degree you perhaps want.

you can clearly see that educational settings are the setting with by far the most Covid-19 outbreaks -- a third

Universities are educational settings.

There are significant numbers of university outbreaks.

Van Tam stated that the problem in the north stems from earlier failure to reduce disease levels there

That backs up the argument of Burnham and some other leaders in the north that the easing of the initial lockdown was timed wrt data and state of the epidemic in London and S England, not the North

Parliament have confirmed PMs speech is at 3.30

However, that earlier lockdown lifting has happened

The issue is how to deal with the current situation, even though it may have been significantly exacerbated by earlier govt decisions