Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Exeter Nightingale hospital opened in July. It is being used for other things at the moment.

Why do you think hospital admissions from care homes are so low?

Because many old folk don't want to go to hospital to die, they would rather stay in their own homes, or their care home. Even when paramedics are called they will often adamantly refuse to go in.

The prob with the data and separate data analysis thread is that the data analysis is a v important and valuable part but on this thread recently has been over powered by schools and the issue with that as pointed out on this thread is there is very little data coming out from schools so often the school discussion on this thread has nothing to do with data analysis and is general school discussion.

Good briefing I appreciate their expertise

@Hmmph

Thanks for the map. Interesting decision on where to put the Nightingale hospitals.

I am also sure they said Hospital and Social care staff would be regularly tested from about May!

agree. I have a friend who is a nurse and although it's been a bit haphazard there's been plenty of access to testing available to staff who think they need it. The hospital is using its own onsite lab to do these though, presume not all hospitals are able to do that.

@Baaaahhhhh

Why do you think hospital admissions from care homes are so low?

Because many old folk don't want to go to hospital to die, they would rather stay in their own homes, or their care home. Even when paramedics are called they will often adamantly refuse to go in.

Absolutely this.

We have more patients in hosp with Covid-19 than we did before the government announced restrictions in March, Prof Powis says

What does this mean. I keep reading that we are nowhere near where we were in March. Whilst I accepted people were staying away from hospital after the lockdown was announced surely they weren't before lockdown

It's possibly true, but it's certainly misleading, we have more patients in hospital with a positive covid test now, but that is of course because all patients in hospital are now tested, regardless of covid symptoms or even suspected covid. Only suspected covid were tested in march (and that even included people with strokes or similar that may have been covid triggered).

It is quite saddening that 941 ppl are watching out of 67m population.
And at least 10 is from this thread :)

@PrayingandHoping

The prob with the data and separate data analysis thread is that the data analysis is a v important and valuable part but on this thread recently has been over powered by schools and the issue with that as pointed out on this thread is there is very little data coming out from schools so often the school discussion on this thread has nothing to do with data analysis and is general school discussion.

Agree

The data and analysis is what we are here for.

Van Tam mentioned schools just now. Fine if it’s actual data.

Otherwise it can go on a more subjective thread

Hannah Miller @hannahitv
Earlier in the presentation Jonathan Van-Tam said that further Covid hospital admissions and deaths in the North West are 'baked in'.

Which begs the question, if this is already spreading across the country, why are we still mainly talking about 'northern' restrictions?

'We have more patients in hospital with Covid 19 than before the Government announced restrictions in March' says @NHSEnglandNMD Stephen Powis.

How long is this 'local' strategy going to last, really..?

More than 250 Covid patients currently being treated by Liverpool University Hospitals Trust (which has two hospitals) @GranadaReports

'This is starting to impact on the services we provide for other patients', says Dr Jane Eddleston, Greater Manchester Medical Lead.

This is exactly what everyone in the NHS wanted to avoid, the idea that dealing with Covid would get in the way of other conditions.

That means we are already almost into the highest level of covid warning (original level 5)

@TheSunIsStillShining

It is quite saddening that 941 ppl are watching out of 67m population. And at least 10 is from this thread :)

What are you looking at? I watched for the slides and saw 28k

Back on radio now

I like stephen powis even more than I like van tam. A more reassuring pair than Whitty and Valance IMO.

@sirfredfredgeorge

We have more patients in hosp with Covid-19 than we did before the government announced restrictions in March, Prof Powis says

What does this mean. I keep reading that we are nowhere near where we were in March. Whilst I accepted people were staying away from hospital after the lockdown was announced surely they weren't before lockdown

It's possibly true, but it's certainly misleading, we have more patients in hospital with a positive covid test now, but that is of course because all patients in hospital are now tested, regardless of covid symptoms or even suspected covid. Only suspected covid were tested in march (and that even included people with strokes or similar that may have been covid triggered).

We are higher for beds occupied for covid in nw than we were in march. Have been for about a week.

there is very little data coming out from schools so often the school discussion on this thread has nothing to do with data analysis and is general school discussion.

This is no more true than the comments above about care homes and why there are not more hospital admissions from there.

It's one rule for everything else and another for schools, on MUMSNET where the average poster is more interested in schools than a lot else. Hence more discussion and analysis of the data or lack of data.

I do think discussion of glaring gaps in the data should be allowed. Otherwise we're just completely uncritically accepting what data the government is collecting as the only picture.

Only suspected covid were tested in march (and that even included people with strokes or similar that may have been covid triggered).

I thought that in March testing in hospitals was limited even for suspected / presumed covid patients. I vaguely remember that the primary criteria for priority testing was those patients whose treatment would depend on the outcome of a test. If I am remembering correctly, that would mean that the comparison between numbers now and numbers in march would be utterly useless.

@Frazzled2207

I like stephen powis even more than I like van tam. A more reassuring pair than Whitty and Valance IMO.

All three were excellent.

Very calm and trustworthy.

@Baaaahhhhh

Why do you think hospital admissions from care homes are so low?

Because many old folk don't want to go to hospital to die, they would rather stay in their own homes, or their care home. Even when paramedics are called they will often adamantly refuse to go in.

The Guardian has this report about blanket DNAR orders, though - if right it may also be relevant to this question:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/inquiry-begins-into-blanket-use-in-england-of-covid-do-not-resuscitate-orders

I like stephen powis even more than I like van tam. A more reassuring pair than Whitty and Valance IMO. Very true, I wasn't keen on VanTam early on, I think he seemed severe but I have more confidence in what he is saying.

I still highly rate Whitty. Valance is good too

@LarkDescending I totally agree. And its not clear to me what he meant. Did he mean that the deaths were already reflected in the chart or not reflected or to be reflected in due course as they materialise.

Maybe I am thick but for a data analyst it was very imprecise language and open to interpretation in my opinion.

KateMcCann @KateEMcCann
JVT says the virus has picked up in the north of England earlier, almost certainly because levels of infection in the north never fell as low as they did in the south but he stresses ALL areas of the UK are seeing rising infection rates - this is not a north v south issue.

Which echoes the fears that Liverpool and Manchester leaders had back in the summer over the schools reopening...

[quote littleowl1]@LarkDescending I totally agree. And its not clear to me what he meant. Did he mean that the deaths were already reflected in the chart or not reflected or to be reflected in due course as they materialise.

Maybe I am thick but for a data analyst it was very imprecise language and open to interpretation in my opinion.[/quote]
Re “baked-in deaths” I think he meant they’re already infected, so a proportion of those patients are already going to die of it in the coming weeks whatever further restrictions are put in place now.

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/nightingale-hospitals-ordered-to-mobilised-ahead-of-covid-surge-a4568696.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1602499264
Nightingale hospitals ordered to 'mobilise' as UK sees 'marked pick up' in coronavirus cases

The hospitals in Manchester, Sunderland and Harrogate have been ordered to prepare for the next phase of the pandemic, the NHS's national medical director said.

That's ok maybe if u live in an urban area. But what about village schools? There may be a village hall but that's one (not so big) space.... not going to help a great deal.

In our rural village we have a church hall, village hall, scout hut, and the club (used to be called working men's club - that currently has an empty and rather large meeting room). Also have an empty cricket club pavilion, if getting desperate for space.

It is quite saddening that 941 ppl are watching out of 67m population

Where are you getting that number from?