Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Live from Downing St at time of posting

If we're going to split the thread it makes more sense to have a 'data only' (all data) thread and an 'analysis of data and /or data gaps' thread. I could see the point of having a data only thread with no discussion - it would make it easier to find links to actual data.

Separating out one setting arbitrarily is just silly and undermines the credibility of these threads. Would we then have to have a thread just about care homes, one about hospitals, one about workplaces, one about pubs and restaurants?

Also, banning discussion about schools on mumsnet is REALLY weird. The clue is in the name......

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy

IloveJKRowling that sounds a better way to go.

Inzamam Rashid @ inzyrashid
NEW: I’m being told #COVID19 hospital admissions in #Liverpool are the 3rd highest in Europe.
They are increasing and could become the worst place for coronavirus admissions in Europe. @SkyNews

If 20% of admissions in #Liverpool’s hospitals are because of #COVID19 then staff will struggle to carry out regular and routine tasks. As of Saturday they were at 15%, it would have worsened in the last 24-36 hours. @SkyNews

Worth pointing out that friday's council data stated that 20% of deaths in Liverpool were covid related. (updates on the council site happen around midday so i will post the latest when i see it.

That is a good point, I know when I used to collect GS recently, my own children years ago, for medical appointments they weren't counted as absent. At one point DD was having physio every morning and she never got a late or an absent. I wonder if anyone in education admin/management knows how that works?

I don’t work in the area, but know how it works:

They take the register twice a day- morning and after lunch. Morning session and afternoon session are recorded separately. If a child is in their classroom when the teacher does the register (ie 9am) they are marked as there. If not, then one of the other codes is used. If a medical appointment means a child arrives at 9.10am and misses the register, then they are marked as absent for medical appointment. If instead they leave school at 9.10 for a medical appointment, they are market as present for the morning session.

So best to make an appointment that avoids registration times!

Derriford Hospital, main Plymouth hospital, has cancelled all non urgent surgery due to rise in covid admissions. I was surprised as Devon generally, excluding Exeter, has low rates. Is this happening across the country, if it is happening in Plymouth I can't imagine it is easier in places like Liverpool. Don't know if it has been mentioned before, I might have missed it.

Is there no Nightingale hospital in Liverpool?

TheSun sorry was typing before I saw your post. Thank you, very helpful.

What is the point of collecting such meaningless information?

And also, it means children could be on roll, receiving no education whatsoever, and no-one knows.

The following is being pointed out on twitter:

Psyber Attack @psyberattack
Serious question. Why do you think hospital admissions from care homes are so low?

England has had 651 care home outbreaks in the last 21 days, with 273 hospital admissions and 951 deaths 🤷‍♂️

Hospital admissions data
t.co/9Lbs8Ze9bt

Outbreak data
t.co/JtB5aisrER

I'd say thats worthy of a question or two...

@Hmmph

Is there no Nightingale hospital in Liverpool?

No.

They were regional.

Manchester served the NW (and Leeds / Bradford) as a whole.

That is not good news @RedToothBrush

Hmmph my DD always missed morning registration, she had a 9 am appointment so she missed as little school as possible, so for example travel to hospital was in our time not school time and appointments more likely to be running late as the morning went on. On her report it wasn't shown as an absence but obviously I don't know how it was shown on school stats. She was also having frequent orthodontic appointments building up to surgery so if all her medical appointment had been shown as absences it wouldn't have looked pretty.

Nightingale map

Hmmph sorry, I meant to thank you for the information.

watching the downing st briefing. Lots of charts!

3 major takeaways

1. nightingales in sunderland, manchester and harrogate to be put on stand by, but not necessarily for covid patients, more for 'extra capacity' that the hospitals need - no word on how these would be staffed.
2. they will now in the NW routinely test all staff, tbh I'm staggered this wasn't done already
3. there doesn't seem to be any will to cancel other NHS services (yet).

Manchester does not serve Leeds ( not sure about Bradford). Harrogate serves Leeds and was in the Spring planned to be staffed on a rota by staff including anaesthetists etc from Leeds Hospitals Trust.

RedToothBrush obviously I don't know what is going on in all care homes but in my relatives home, and their sister home, there is an outbreak. It was only found by routine testing as none of the residents had symptoms, haven't had my update yet for last week so don't know if any have gone on to have symptoms but obviously no one was admitted to hospital as they weren't needing any additional care. Doesn't explain the deaths though.

Harrogate was announced and opened after Manchester on 21st April - after the peak.

Even Manchester only opened on the 13th (weekend of the peak)

Birmingham was opened on 10th.

London was the only one ready and open for the official peak. So it was probably a good job that it wasn't as bad elsewhere and peak outside the capital was slightly delayed...

Thanks for the map. Interesting decision on where to put the Nightingale hospitals.

I am also sure they said Hospital and Social care staff would be regularly tested from about May!

We have more patients in hosp with Covid-19 than we did before the government announced restrictions in March, Prof Powis says

What does this mean. I keep reading that we are nowhere near where we were in March. Whilst I accepted people were staying away from hospital after the lockdown was announced surely they weren't before lockdown?

Hmmph home my relative is in started getting regular testing about 5 weeks ago, home where I do some volunteering has had their first weekly test last week.

Off topic, but why does Prof Van Tam keep talking about food! Baked in, salami sliced... I think he wants lunch!

“Baked-in deaths” was an unfortunate choice of words, I thought.

In Manchester, City Council leader Sir Richard Leese said local leaders were still in discussions with the Government as to what restrictions should apply in the area.

Despite high levels of infections, he said they had made the case that Greater Manchester should be placed in Tier 2 as there was little evidence that pubs and bars had been responsible for the spread of the disease in the area.

"They have not been able to show us any data that connects bars and pubs in Greater Manchester with transmission of the Covid-19 virus. They have not been able to provide any evidence that closing them down will work," he told the Today programme.

"We have far more finely-grained data collected by our own directors of public health that seems to demonstrate that there is not a particular connection between bars and restaurants and the transmission of Covid."