Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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143 deaths

That does not look good.

https://www.gov.uk/find-coronavirus-local-restrictions?fbclid=IwAR28iHLKbPy3UG5XrJj7qxeyZxYGJUKZ7S-G3pWN9TXwrlE2bQaBB_jtqxA

They've released the postcode checker (I thought I heard them say it would be Wednesday.....)

It does not at all.
I always think the numbers are highest on tuesdays because the care homes data catches up (it doesn't seem to report much at weekends, when you see hospital only data). But to have passed the 100 deaths per day threshold, by some margin, is grim.

They always said a second wave would do more damage to any economy and that they needed to avoid the consequences of a large second wave necessitating another lockdown. I think they are avoiding the lockdown but not the wave...

Hospital death numbers reported on Sun and Mon are also understated so yes, Tuesday is always high for deaths.

That’s not good
Does anyone have Tuesdays tally?

Each week I mean wondering about last few weeks

Tuesday death figures:

13/10: 143
6/10: 76
29/9: 71
22/9: 37

Question

Any data on how likely close contact will contract covid-19 from a positive individual?

For context: both 16yo, spent 2h together indoors (in a house several have subsequently tested positive). Snogging was involved 🙈. He tested positive following day.

Is it pretty much a dead-cert she'll get the virus?

It says those on mechanical ventilators is 507 yet for the last 3 days it's been 442. Thats a big overnight jump or I wonder if the 442 for 3 days running was an error?

FATE

My estimate would be 50%.

The estimated secondary attack rate for spouses of index cases based on the Chinese data is 28%.

Apparently, the European strait is more infectious + snogging has to be an exacerbating factor.

At the same time we know that around 70% of people with COVID do not pass it on.

Considering all these random factors, 50% is probably not an unreasonable estimate.

With 1 DC having to isolate due to 'close contact' - notification received yesterday.
Another DC has come home today saying there's been positive cases in his school but he hasn't been identified as a close contact so he can continue attending.
Feels like things are moving very quickly here.

Not liking the fact that case numbers are over 17,000 today and the deaths being so high is very upsetting to see.

at the height of lockdown most shops were shut, the decline in workplace activity now will not be anything like the same as lockdown.

Are new cases flattening out?

09:39cathyandclare

MEN are exaggerating using incomplete data but the 7 day average above does show a tailing off from a peak on the 30th Sept. Early days to draw conclusions I know....

I've been getting Littleowls emails and we have pretty much always been increasing on those. I a GM but not Manchester city though.

Midge - no, the yellow line shows a clear upward trend, ignore the data in the lag period as that is incomplete

1st case in dd school class today age 13.

@MRex

What's nicest about the new map is that you can roll the date back and pretend it's 1st July, with everything looking really quite ok.

Gutting to look at July, if TTTI had been effective then we could have really got on top of it. I'm shocked how high it is around me in my rural north Hampshire village. Surprised local schools are fully open with such high community rates (100-200) in our parish area.

UK today
(yesterday, then last few days in brackets)

Cases 17,234 ... (13,972, 12,872, 15,166, 13,864)
Deaths 143 ....... (50, 65, 81, 87)

Chart from Richard@RP131 UK
showing the UK new cases continue to fit 9-day doubling period:

I guess it's a good thing that cases are still doubling every 9 days rather than less days - so rather than doubling every 7, then every 5 etc.

Thank you wintertravel1980, that's really helpful.

Just calculated that today's reported cases in my town (23) took an average of 3.8 days from specimen to report.

Germany:

Cases rising, 7-day incidence nearly 30/100,000
Nearly 4,000 news cases daily on average
R for 4-day and 7-day ~1.2 (has been > 1 since early September)

Of confirmed cases:
~6 % hospitalised
~0.5% CFR currently (this is an increase from 0.35% when average infection age was about 4 years younger)
So ~10 deaths / day atm

Total 618 in ICU, 52% ventilated, overall death rate 24%

Average age of infected is mid-30s
Cases continuing to rise fastest in the 15-34 age group, followed by those aged 35-59
The very young and those aged 60+ much lower

Cases particularly in (legal) large family celebration (weddings - 1 wedding alone caused >200 cases, birthdays), care homes, hospitals & other institutions, food processing plants, places of worship
Not gyms or schools so far.
Or Unis - I think they must have gone online

Of the 9,634 total deaths, 85% are aged 70+ although they are only 13% of the confirmed cases

Only 37 adults under 40 and 2 children aged 0-19 have died from a population of 83 million

• hence why Merkel has allowed (had to allow) pretty relaxed SD measures since the June low