Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

I don't think it's fully sorted yet.

The historical data thing is interesting.

Basically, around Newcastle the cases started going up from mid August and were pretty much across all communities in the greens by 2nd sept and blues a couple of weeks later. Purple a week or so later.

There's the glorious week or so where there were no infections in July.

How are they working out rates per population with the influx of new students?

I love how excited you have all got about a new map and colours!

I like the new map! First of all it is showing the last 7 days to the “right” date of 7th October, whereas the old map is going to 8th October. And it adjusts the colour for the rate/100,000 whereas the old map was just based on a fixed number of cases (i guess the assumption being that each MSOA is roughly the same but there are variations - from the calculation I can now see that my MSOA has very slightly fewer people than the next one along, as we are purple and they are dark blue, but same number of cases).

It goes back to the 18th March

What date was here community testing?

The rolling back is fascinating for the NW - if you roll back to end of July and get a map so you can see MSOAs for both Greater Manchester and Liverpool City Region in one view. LCR went from almost no cases to insane hotspot so quickly, whereas Manchester had so many more cases in July and August. Really really fascinating data

Do we have any stats on how many are now working from home? Boris was not very encouraging about this when it was half heartedly announced a few weeks ago. However, the roads do seem a bit quieter?

The thread has moved on but I'm still catching up. This was tweeted around 18th September, so if it was from a monthly report hopefully the next one is imminent.

Stephen Reicher @ReicherStephen
the proportion of people working at work has risen to some 60% while the numbers working from home has halved to some 20%

• even though figures suggest that half of all workplaces are not socially distanced.

Anecdotally, DH was ordered to WFH full time again following Boris's announcement, whereas my large retailer is still expecting people to be in the office 3 days per week despite being in an area with v v high cases. Luckily, managers in my department are allowing us to use our discretion and WFH full time if we want to.

The Google mobility reports are in the OP as "local mobility", you can open UK or regional reports up in PDF. Workplaces overall are down 31% at the moment (the baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020), only ever gained a couple of percent since August.
I've just realised it only goes back a few months, but Our World in Data have stored the data for graphs, so this is useful for comparison to lockdown, at the nadir of lockdown workplaces dropped to nearly 70% below baseline:
ourworldindata.org/covid-mobility-trends.

@Piggywaspushed

I love how excited you have all got about a new map and colours!

.... Too many of us are maths / stats geeks

SAGE on 21 Sepetember recommended a short lockdown plus other measures
but felt sidelines by economic considerations

Hence the release last night of that table with possible measures

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/13/sage-documents-show-how-coronavirus-scientists-felt-sidelined-by-economic-considerations

The minutes of the Sage meeting on 21 September show the experts wanted a dramatic increase in restrictions across the country to check the alarming rise in infections,
warning at that point that the number of cases was doubling every seven days and hospitalisations had begun to increase.

A package of measures was needed, they said, to include:

• a “circuit-breaker” lockdown of a couple of weeks.
• advice to work from home for all who could.
• a ban on household mixing in homes.
• closure of all bars, cafes, restaurants, indoor gyms and personal services such as hairdressers.
• all university and college teaching to be online.

"These documents appear to mark the point at which the science of handling an infectious disease epidemic lost out to economic considerations."

According to DM they also were talking about masks in schools and workplaces.
Onlne for uni.

@BigChocFrenzy

"These documents appear to mark the point at which the science of handling an infectious disease epidemic lost out to economic considerations."

I find The Guardian loaded, as it so often looks for angles against government.

I wonder if there’s another way it could have been framed. It was at this point government considered the severity of the economic crisis to be an equal priority.

We really are walking a tightrope and I’m not sure if we’re managing that.

But there’s no doubt it’s not just about infection numbers. Economic considerations are just as paramount.

Although generally I do find the overall loosening of restrictions strangely against stated intentions

Marsha I used to read the Telegraph and Times too, but I'm too tight to pay subscriptions
Hence I just quote freebies, or Google around an FT paywall

@MarshaBradyo

Although generally I do find the overall loosening of restrictions strangely against stated intentions

Totally agree

But I think it comes from them assuming more would move into tier 3 and some without current restrictions would be tier 2.... and then local politicians had tantrums and they just rolled over 😠

Main point is though:
if that was the SAGE set of recommendations, then public health was over-ruled by economics

That is a decision a government has the power & responsibility to make, but it important to know

I wonder too if that was actually the first time, or if in fact the switch happened earlier

But the indisputable fact remains that the countries who've taken effective containment measures all now have healthier economies.

When there's talk of economic considerations, the UK is clearly looking only very short-term. The longer-term economy, i.e. beyond the middle of next week is better served by short-term pain, long-term gain action.

@BigChocFrenzy

Marsha I used to read the Telegraph and Times too, but I'm too tight to pay subscriptions Hence I just quote freebies, or Google around an FT paywall

Ah sorry didn’t mean to highlight your quote more my dissatisfaction with the paper overall. It has been growing with each article.

Whenever press etc say government cares more about economy as if a negative I can’t agree. We are all stuffed if they don’t care about it.

Also economic decline feeds into poor public health.

Having said that it is very interesting to have the minutes and see where they may diverge.

When back in February things really started to kick off, some people suggested taking strict containment measures. Opponents cried 'We can't, we can't, we can't....The Economy...'. Other countries ignored the shortsighted and went ahead with the short-term pain, long-term gain approach. Hence why now their economies are largely fully back up and running, whilst ours is in such a terrible mess - with no end in sight other than dragged out on off on off half measures (and therefore ineffective).
We have two choices. Continue as we are for another year, or bite the bullet and go for proper containment measures. I suspect unfortunately we'll continue to do the former.

@NoGoodPunsLeft
I suspect many returned to the workplace (from WFH) because they don't have homes that are easy to work from. This is the consequence of successive governments ignoring the housing crisis for the last 20-30 years. WFH only really works if you have a spacious comfy home to work from. It's no good for the people crammed into shabby houseshares or tiny studio flats, nor is it ideal for adult children stuck living at home with their parents.

I enjoy reading the Telegraph and am highly amused at the comments beneath the articles.

For example, when it was suggested that over 50s ought to shield, the general readership, many of whom are over 50, were highly indignant that "we" should not have to shield.

However, when it was suggested in the Great Barrington hoo-ha that a smaller group of "they" ought to shield, there was enthusiastic assent that "they" should have to shield so that "we" could get on with "our" lives just as before.

I find the Guardian much more realistic and thoughtful about the science in its discussion of the risks and benefits of lockdown etc. even if the very occasional writer seems a bit too woke to be true.

I like nonetheless knowing how both sides think.

Anecdata- I think a number of people also went back to the office in September because for the first time since the schools closed in March they had the ability to! Some of those people have now returned back home again through choice having done the things they needed to do in person (this seems very common amongst my professional network)

Do we know if the testing shambles has been sorted out? Is testing still focused on already known 'hotspots' (meaning new hotspots will be missed until the hospitals start filling up)?

All these maps and graphs. How accurate are they if people (in some or all areas) are still experiencing difficulty in accessing tests?

Not good news.
New cases: 17,234

Patients admitted: 651