Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

And the Manchester Evening News is reporting again that Manchester rates have fallen by as much as 25%...but they are using figures up to 9 October which are clearly not complete

I have emailed them, and pointed out that if they were to look at the chart for England that shows how reported cases are allocated, they will see that 8 October is probably around 10% underreported and 9 around 30% underreported. And that the latest rate for Manchester is actually 522 not 448! I shall see if I get a reply

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchesters-coronavirus-infection-rate-falls-19092713

That wasn’t supposed to look like I was replying to /correcting you CathyandClare- it took me a while to type that!
Agree that the last 2 days of September, which I think were mass testing of students, were particularly high

MEN are exaggerating using incomplete data but the 7 day average above does show a tailing off from a peak on the 30th Sept. Early days to draw conclusions I know....

@ceeveebee

That wasn’t supposed to look like I was replying to /correcting you CathyandClare- it took me a while to type that! Agree that the last 2 days of September, which I think were mass testing of students, were particularly high

I think we both posted at the same time! I agree all the big northern uni cities had a peak with with the student testing. It'll be interesting to see what happens now.

But the govt doesn’t seem to have mastered how to communicate locally.

General feeling here now is that "we're not that bad. "

Then I look at your lists Little and note we are worse than Manchester ?!

"Test and trace should not be used as a pawn in negotiations about how you reduce infections,
because it’s the single fundamental platform on which infections are reduced.

red if the government are not funding maximum t&t everywhere it is madness

If they really are using t&t as a negotiating tactic, that should be the criminal offence of Misconduct in Public Office

That sounds like blackmail

It's really not ok

We need to be proactive not reactive. Don’t think the govt get this.

Do we know the criteria for how an area moves tiers?

My area in Germany

I don't know what daily info UK threadmates are getting,
but every day our state issues a full report of cases, deaths etc for the state and then for the administrative districts below

My state has one of the higher levels in Germany and I live in a higher level district of ~50 / 100,000 within that ! 🤦🏻‍♀️ AARGH

Nothing is closed, but numbers in gatherings are now limited to 15, strict SD in restaurants - I no longer go
Gym seems as normal, but is roomy with 5.4 m ceilings - I'll keep going unless over-60s advised otherwise

We have a colour system - more levels than a traffic lights now ! - of 7-day incidence,
with a brief summary of measures for each
There is a document specifying the detailled measures at each level for people, businesses, public health

Here, I've cut out just the levels, as the measures give away the area

But surely scientists should be looking for evidence - testing more school children and researching symptoms more prevalent in children - instead of just looking the other way.

This - if they only have 'moderate' or 'low' confidence in ANY tactic to reduce R / transmission then they should be putting money into filling that gap in knowledge. And they are not.

And all this banging on about vulnerable students and gaps in education - so many kids are off isolating, back in again, it's a yo-yo and it's only going to get worse not better. What's the impact of that uncertainty and disruption on the most vulnerable and the educational attainment gap?

I really don't want schools to close for the social side more than anything else - but increasingly I'm thinking that DH and I homeschooling would be less disruptive and allow our child to learn more in a purely educational sense. This is not what I thought at the start of term, and not what I thought in June/July when DD was back for 4 weeks in a socially distant school (when she covered so much ground and did so much better without the normal distractions of the overcrowded class).

Also, teachers aren't robots - how are they supposed to deliver a good education when the class is at different levels, been in and out at different times for different durations and they're stressed and unhappy and worried about colleagues?

@walksen so sorry to hear about your situation, it's shocking there is no testing being provided.

The daily RKI report is for the whole country, with general analysis and recommendations
It lists the status of the 16 states and the main incidents, e.g. an earlier (legal) wedding of 300 guests caused a major outbreak that has had ramifications for 3 weeks+

And all this banging on about vulnerable students and gaps in education

I don’t want to get drawn back in as we’ve moved on finally. But I do think it’s sad people can write this. Banging on.

Anyway let’s get back to tiers

Is the reinfection guy more to do with different strain or waning immunity?

I think we don’t know?

Luton and Bedford both tier 1 praying : result? No more 7 day a week testing centre in Bedford.

The govt sent out ¼ million transparent masks for frontline NHS and care workers

www.gov.uk/government/news/government-delivers-250000-clear-face-masks-to-support-people-with-hearing-loss

I think they should send out the same to teachers in secondary schools

Then according to the tier, set recommendations for mask-wearing
e.g.
tier 1 ==> optional in class for staff & students, compulsory in corridorson stairs
tier 2 ==> mandatory in class for 14+
tier 3 ==> mandatory for all in secondary

imo the head might need the right to refuse if their school has particular problems that make it unworkable

@MarshaBradyo

Is the reinfection guy more to do with different strain or waning immunity?

I think we don’t know?

.... Different strain:

"Scientists say the patient caught coronavirus twice, rather than the original infection becoming dormant and then bouncing back.

A comparison of the genetic codes of the virus taken during each bout of symptoms showed they were too distinct to be caused by the same infection."

Thanks BigChoc I saw that. I wasn’t sure what that coding means for mutation and reinfection or just that it hadn’t re emerged

I got that it wasn’t just the same infection but couldn’t be sure if it was due to waning immunity or because the different strain was different enough to be the cause

Does that make sense? Not sure

@Piggywaspushed

Luton and Bedford both tier 1 praying : result? No more 7 day a week testing centre in Bedford.

Thought there would be consequences

Not that anyone I know in Luton borough had any idea of the current restrictions over last few months anyway (other than those shielding who had a letter)

"Oh I didn't know we weren't allowed to visit people in their homes" 😡😡 educate yourselves people!! It's all on the council website and fb and local news! Why do people think they need to be spoon fed.

Although I think it's convenient ignorance IMO

No antibody response after first infection?

Interesting that the person was IgM positive upon reinfection. Likely that there was no response after the first infection.
mobile.twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1315792239768023042

I've put the original paper in the studies thread and it looks like one strain does not confer immunity for another

There was only a few weeks between infections, so waning immunity does not seem much of a factor

• or if that's how short immunity can be even in the young, we are fucked

I wonder also if he used T cells to get over the first bout, rather than producing a significant antibody response
It would be interesting to tabulate those with new infections vs symptoms and age

If the government was planning/about to implement a large and urgent public education campaign, especially using community leaders, more of those Instagram influencers, schools even (for students and parents), it would be encouraging to know about......

Plus full pay/income replacement for anyone isolating.

That twitter thread refers to a report where an immuno=compromised person was infected twice
and sadly died:

academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1538/5920950

Hopefully however, reinfections will remain just a tiny % of new cases unil spring

@Augustbreeze

If the government was planning/about to implement a large and urgent public education campaign, especially using community leaders, more of those Instagram influencers, schools even (for students and parents), it would be encouraging to know about......

Plus full pay/income replacement for anyone isolating.

.... It should be done by govt, councils, individual local MPs & councillors imo, not getting involved with "influencers"

Schools would be excellent at explaining things clearly and would have the patience for endless repetition !