Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Study on reinfection with Covid and worse the second time:
www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext

@littleowl1 have all the area updates gone out this morning? I'm missing one (which is from an area probably tier 2....?).

[quote Hmmph]Study on reinfection with Covid and worse the second time:
www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext[/quote]
Yes I saw that. It’s a pity he wasn’t tested for antibodies after the first bout. I wonder whether, being young and fit, he recovered the first time without generating antibodies?

Otherwise, cases like this may raise the spectre of antibody-dependent enhancement, a nightmare for those developing vaccine programmes.

So this eagerly awaited three tier solution to managing the virus is a complete damp squib?

• Most areas = no change in restrictions (even though cases have been increasing at an alarming rate).
• Many areas that currently have additional restrictions - where cases are still increasing rapidly - have had restrictions eased (rule of 6 outdoors).
• Highest tier = practically no change at all.

• No idea how tiers are decided so no clue how we move up or down.

What a mess. I despair.

I have a question about the tiers - have read and watched the bbc updates but still unsure of the answer. What are the rules around people living in Tier 3 areas travelling outside of the area to use their pubs and restaurants, gyms etc? Surely this should be discouraged but seems a pretty obvious route for people to continue if they are that sort that think their Sunday lunch is more important than collective responsibility? Do the rules cover this (travel in/out of zones?)

@LarkDescending

I'd have to double check but I'm sure that the Oxford vaccine team carried out a specific study to exclude that issue with their vaccine at the request of the regulator.

I believe it had been an issue with one of the vaccine candidates for SARS and although the Oxford vaccine candidate was produced in a completely different way to that vaccine they did look into it.

@Youngatheart00
Yes they shouldn’t travel outside the area (unless for work/school) nor should others travel in. But this is guidance not law.

@Sunshinegirl82

Ah yes - a report here re that aspect of the Oxford trial: www.biocentury.com/article/305196/oxford-remains-on-track-after-saying-data-back-vaccine-rsquo-s-safety-efficacy-in-monkeys

This does not make for great reading

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/wary-greater-manchester-prepares-trench-19093523
A wary Greater Manchester prepares for trench warfare with ministers over lockdown
'The air between London and Manchester may be turning toxic'

In the Commons, the PM was sure to ‘repeat the offer that we are making’ on stricter lockdowns to other local authorities in the north of England, without directly naming an awkward Greater Manchester.

“Work with us on these difficult but necessary measures in the areas that are rated ‘very high’ areas, in return for more support for local test and trace,” he told intransigent council leaders, also dangling help from the army for contact tracing, more cash for enforcement and cash for affected businesses.

“I believe not to act would be unforgivable," he added, "so I hope that rapid progress can be made in the coming days.”

One senior Greater Manchester figure says this was, for them, by far the standout moment from yesterday.

“It’s absolutely bizarre that you condition test and trace money,” they say of the implication that anywhere challenging the evidence of top-tier restrictions will have to forfeit the ability to properly trace Covid cases.

“Test and trace should not be used as a pawn in negotiations about how you reduce infections, because it’s the single fundamental platform on which infections are reduced. You should be putting as much money in tier one and tier two places to avoid them becoming tier three.

“It’s the economics of the madhouse.”

Even if the government's approach forms part of a strategy to blame Greater Manchester, should hospital admission continue to rise, ‘it doesn’t change the analysis that they’re insane’.

I wasn't aware that this was being done. And it is not insane especially considering how much has already been paid to Dido Harding and her useless system. Its criminal.

It is a mess.

In the NE tomorrow apparently I can meet 5 friends for a SD chat in the park.

Today I can't.

I'm glad but not sure if that's the right direction??!

It feels temporarily nice we’re in tier 1 but I’m not convinced it’s right given the rising cases. Under 100 but going up each day

@littleowl1 it's just come through! Thank u!

Walksen that does sound worrying.

That's the scenario that a union rep reassured me would get mobile testing sent in.

No I don't think it will be by the sounds of it.

@HoldingTight

So this eagerly awaited three tier solution to managing the virus is a complete damp squib?

• Most areas = no change in restrictions (even though cases have been increasing at an alarming rate).
• Many areas that currently have additional restrictions - where cases are still increasing rapidly - have had restrictions eased (rule of 6 outdoors).
• Highest tier = practically no change at all.

• No idea how tiers are decided so no clue how we move up or down.

What a mess. I despair.

Tier 1 : the same Tier 2 : easing on garden gatherings Tier 3: bars closed but pubs stay open if they serve food along with restaurants and gyms close. Advice that can be ignored to enter / leave the area. Also they get money for businesses closed, army logistics support if needed and money for local track and trace (which you should be doing before you get to level 3).

I cant see this staying the same in a month. And i cant see us only having 3 tiers.

Its not addressing the problem of indoor transmission properly and i can guarantee that neighbouring counties will be utterly fucked by it. And track and trace over and above any restriction remains the core problem.

@NeurotrashWarrior

It is a mess.

In the NE tomorrow apparently I can meet 5 friends for a SD chat in the park.

Today I can't.

I'm glad but not sure if that's the right direction??!

Of course its not.

Everyone is going to be like the kid suddenly allowed free access to the cookie jar. I suspect even the cold weather won't deter people. Not after weeks of not being allowed to do something. The psychology of it is that people know that theyve only got a few opportunities to do it before they end up in strict lockdown so are "going to make the most of it whilst they can". Plus there is Bonfire and Halloween in the next couple of weeks which is now allowed.

Its a recipe for disaster.

I don't think my post below is right about what the NE can do!

It might be that we can meet a group of 6 from two house holds for just the whole of Wednesday when it might then be updated... 🤪

Amusing fb post in the local mutual aid group has so many edits and updates, then the woman (who works for the council I think! throws her hands up, admits defeat, and hands out the gin.

Thank you @Frazzled2207

Hi @PrayingandHoping! You are in the ball!!!

I had a couple of emails (out of 315!) I needed to delay to update with the revised tiers announced last night. You should have received it 8.55am. If not PM me the area name and I will look into it further.

Wasn’t helped by the list of tier 2 areas being misreported on Sky News website last night - phhhh! It was a late one for me!

@littleowl1 yes it was that one of those areas.... lol! South ribble! And yes it came at 8.55

Took a while last night to finally find out what tier they were in

Bonkers they are one of those areas that can now mix in their gardens etc and we couldn't before yet their rates increasing. Utter madness

So yes, as of tonight we can meet with others outside in less than 6, but it might change.

www.gov.uk/guidance/north-east-of-england-local-restrictions?fbclid=IwAR38KbijpJ5WrpgbFK9ZgyvMR9MUffd8h21WViZvHNMk5xQRZr5qXa9Vhms#social-contact-restrictions

I’m sure there was a myriad of reasons why the tier system was implemented BUT one troubling element which hasn’t been reported much in the media, is that there has been a raising of the threshold to become an area of concern - currently if you are tier 1 you are classified as (more or less) “not requiring any extra measures”.

So tier 2 is similar to “being put on the watchlist”.

However, the threshold for being made “tier 2” seems higher than that to “get on the watchlist”.

I do worry that areas where rates are rising quickly and suddenly (like mine) will end up feeling everything is “fine” when it really is an opportune moment to take some extra precautions and get it under control before it gets out of control.

But the govt doesn’t seem to have mastered how to communicate locally.

LittleOwl I agree with you it does feel like a loosening. We were on the watch list not it’s just tier 1.

Earlier action would seem better rather than the other direction.

Now it’s..

@littleowl1 yep! And areas like Luton who were classed as an "area of concern" is now just tier 1. Hmmmm.....

Feels like too many areas have been downgraded. As u say..... people will take it less seriously now

@EducatingArti

But we have been in near T3 in GM since August ( pub closures are the only major difference I can see plus I think "work from home if possible" came back in maybe mid September?) and our cases are growing still. What steps should we be taking next?

This is the graph for cases in Manchester LA by specimen date. I know there's a lag but there does appear to have been a trend down since the end of September.