Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

The google mobility data shows significant drops in workplace activity. While it's more common in London than most places parts of the north (e.g. Manchester) have considerably higher percentages staying home than, for example, Plymouth, the rest of Devon or Dorset. Aberdeen and Glasgow City have drops approaching London levels.

Unfortunately its not always easy to identify large cities but " working from home" is less of a north/south divide than people think.

I included influencers because I think that's the only way to get through to a lot of teens and young people. The only people they respect. I have teens and work in secondary!

(Trained and committed influencers, not like the one that put out the right message but a few days later was pictured partying or whatever.....)

2 links near the end of the OP show:

. mobility / footfall
. UK high street tracker activity in cities & large toowns

paused vaccine trial - Johnson & Johnson edition.cnn.com/2020/10/12/health/johnson-coronavirus-vaccine-pause-bn/index.html

We need more data, not less

Richard@RP131 has noticed that PHE have removed the last column that gave numbers of people tested in regions

more working from home is not a solution when workplace activity is already massively down.

@MarshaBradyo

What is wrong with pointing out the government is lying about caring for vulnerable students when all they actually do makes their situation worse?

Where are the laptops?

They were shamed by a footballer to provide free school meals where they were not planning to.

It's lies. I don't think my choice of word is the bigger crime here.

Moderna vaccine rollout for the US general public could start from ~ April

Encouraging that there are several vaccines in their final large-scale trials, so if 1 or 2 get (hoepfully briefly) delayed, others can fill the gap until more come on stream

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/01/health/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-bancel-bn/index.html

Big choc Germany seems so clearly organised and arranged, I wish we could look to be so transparent and clear cut as to x will change when x happens. Public confidence is getting endemically low and it’s not helping people follow rules. I’m predicting increasing civil unrest over the winter.

@alreadytaken

more working from home is not a solution when workplace activity is already massively down.

.... Why not ? Or do you think SAGE miscalculated how much more WFH there is to gain ?

@Reastie

Big choc Germany seems so clearly organised and arranged, I wish we could look to be so transparent and clear cut as to x will change when x happens. Public confidence is getting endemically low and it’s not helping people follow rules. I’m predicting increasing civil unrest over the winter.

... Germany, like all European countries, has rising levels It's about keeping this to within a limit that testing, t&T systems can manage and health services too That's individual to a country So far, systems are working smoothly here and people understand what is happening

Despite increases, people here seem suprisingly confident atm, with Merkel on 82% approval for her handling of the crisis
BUT
she said levels could rise to 20k per day before Christmas,
so I don't know how that will hit morale here, especially if it is a lot more

Every country has their limit before a significant % of people start panicking, staying home & refusing to leave

I think sage has overestimated those left to work from home. I can't find the link atm but my area traffic volume has significantly dropped since WFH was encouraged again.

Jk I agree with Whitty re balance of harm. Best to agree to disagree and move on.

@BigChocFrenzy

I've put the original paper in the studies thread and it looks like one strain does not confer immunity for another

There was only a few weeks between infections, so waning immunity does not seem much of a factor

• or if that's how short immunity can be even in the young, we are fucked

I wonder also if he used T cells to get over the first bout, rather than producing a significant antibody response
It would be interesting to tabulate those with new infections vs symptoms and age

Ok thanks will check it out

Hopefully however, reinfections will remain just a tiny % of new cases until spring

To what extent are doctors looking for reinfections? Wouldn't it require a positive test the first time around? And we know they were in short supply in this country.

It seems to me there could be a large number of reinfections being missed unless they are specifically being looked for.

Anecdata so please scroll past if you don't want to read:

I have a friend with long covid who had a positive test back in April. Her housemate at the time had mild symptoms. Housemate is now elsewhere but has had a positive test. They assume it's a reinfection as housemate got sick after friend first time around and was WFH, not going out much, so really only exposed to her - classic symptoms both times, but obviously since housemate wasn't tested the first time around will never know.

I wish we could explain things clearly BCF. You should have seen my year 9s yesterday when I said 'turn to the back of your books'

@Piggywaspushed

I wish we could explain things clearly BCF. You should have seen my year 9s yesterday when I said 'turn to the back of your books'

You must be teaching my ds. I can imagine him giving you a totally blank look at that.

My year 11s are sadly very influenced by celebs : they are very disapproving at the moment of our ex pupil , Ben Chilwell (who was at a small party) and in awe of Marcus Rashford. So, sorry to say, influencers are the way...

"Why not ?
Or do you think SAGE miscalculated how much more WFH there is to gain ?"

Workplace activity is down by 31% across the country. I dont remember what it was in total lockdown but it's been down to 40% so there is scope for some movement. I dont know when the SAGE report was produced but yes, I do think they have miscalculated.

Best to agree to disagree and move on.

I will agree to disagree about the benefits and risks to vulnerable students of having schools open as they are currently in the UK.

Your post upthread contained nothing other than a direct criticism of my wording and nothing of substance relating to this thread whatsoever.

I post within MN talk guidelines.

I will not comment on this again, I'm interested in the issues not in personal attacks.

It wasn’t a personal attack Jk

But banging on felt a bit like it and did make me feel sad.

It’s better if we use measured language. Like the good briefing yesterday.

Where are the laptops?

ILoveJKRowling It is very apparent that you have many issues with your experiences with your children at their schools. That's fine. But I really feel you should take them up with your school. Your experiences are clearly not universal. DH volunteered with Surrey CC to get laptops set up and distributed locally. Just because you haven't heard that this went on, doesn't mean it didn't happen.

Just to illustrate how many social contacts one child can have (and this is just in school) we did a proper contact trace on our year 11 case today (first case in our school) and 60 students have had to go home! He was a popular boy, it seems (in football team, which inexplicably has been to a tournament recently so that'll be fun) . This is anecdata but does show what social beasts teens are.

I think other schools, might bubble a bit more than we do but we have year groups of 400 so it's not really possible. Thankfully, the boy isn't one of our many bus kids...

To be air the laptops is a national issue. Surrey may be an outlier there. We got 5 in our school (1600 students) and have had to take extra laptops back off those kids now we are back in the building. It was a shambles. JK is not wrong there.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-laptops-disadvantaged-school-children-uk-dfe-a9574746.html

News report on how only half of promised 200,000 laptops delivered (and that promise fails to reach the need by quite some way)
"Responding to Mr Gibb’s comments, the IPPR think-tank said they had identified one million children in March without digital access"