Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Why is there such a botheration about university teaching? Why is it seen as so dangerous to ahve F2F teaching in that sector that it is specifically mentioned as an intervention? Surely going to seminars etc is the least risky thing uni students do?

"I disagree that it was brutal. Certainly not compared to many other places including most of continental Europe"

Sheep It was brutal compared to Germany's which was less strict, e.g. re unlimited outdoor time, sunbathing, sitting on benches etc

Germany's was also much shorter

[quote Oaktree55]@MarshaBradyo not at all does it alter my thinking because I’ve from Day 1 on these forums thought more widely about the impacts than “schools must stay open”

Perhaps because of my career I’m able to see the longer term effects and economic effects which will be equally as harmful.

Schools have always been open to vulnerable kids as well as key worker.[/quote]
I am not for closing sectors.

@ancientgran

When schools were "closed" I thought vulnerable children were able to attend with keyworkers' children.

They were but I think some had to stay off because school staff got ill... If we fail to contain Covid schools will, of course, have to close because the staff will be off sick.

If the R is that high and brings those negatives as listed then they obviously link the two things.

It’s a stark list I can’t see how people read it and still go for that measure.

@BigChocFrenzy

"I disagree that it was brutal. Certainly not compared to many other places including most of continental Europe"

Sheep It was brutal compared to Germany's which was less strict, e.g. re unlimited outdoor time, sunbathing, sitting on benches etc

Germany's was also much shorter

Yes but, unlike us, Germany had a good test, track, and trace system setup early on. An excellent well funded healthcare system too - with Covid patients getting early (often at home) treatment, when survival is more likely.

Didn't Germany also implement border restrictions? I know much of Europe did.

Very selective to just see the R

But not read below that and see low confidence and high disruption.

The issue is what does modelling show and what’s reality. People aren’t sticking to the rules. It’s not parties causing the rate to remain stubbornly high in existing lock down areas, apparently it’s people bending rules slightly, the “oh it’s ok if I see x,y,z family members indoors what difference will one little rule bend make”

Unfortunately that won’t stop people will in big enough numbers continue to visit family at home especially over winter.

Yes on paper there’s other interventions but I’ll be amazed if they work particularly as weather turns!

Why keep ignoring that encouraging WFH can bring about as much benefit as completely closing schools
with far far less downside

• and presumably more benefit than pt schools

That sage doc advocates very highly a 2/3 week close to total lockdown. With that kind of timescale I think people would comply, right now it’s the never ending element of the rules that are so difficult. But of course it would not guarantee a return to normal after, far from it. It might buy time though.
I’m so cross at the way this has been handled. 7 months in and they still don’t have a clue.

@MarshaBradyo it’s not selective it’s realistic. Yes I read it all it’s not a surprise to see it’s disruptive. The conference is low because the data isn’t in yet.

I do see the wider picture though. Continuous education (albeit on line for some or part time) with a functioning economy at the end is better for school kids than a building called school which is “open”

[quote Oaktree55]@MarshaBradyo it’s not selective it’s realistic. Yes I read it all it’s not a surprise to see it’s disruptive. The conference is low because the data isn’t in yet.

I do see the wider picture though. Continuous education (albeit on line for some or part time) with a functioning economy at the end is better for school kids than a building called school which is “open”[/quote]
You won’t get the R stated then.

And still negative impact

Realistically

If schools are closed, kids would meet up together indoors for hours, with no SD

I wonder if that was estimated and included in the R reduction

"Continuous education (albeit on line for some or part time)"

We don't have the reduction in R for that
Would it be ~ half that of complete closure ?

Actually the word disruption doesn’t do this justice - School closures associated with possible increases in school drop-out, child injury, domestic violence, child abuse but reductions in referrals.

Harm would be more accurate

@BigChocFrenzy

Why keep ignoring that encouraging WFH can bring about as much benefit as completely closing schools with far far less downside

• and presumably more benefit than pt schools

To really contain it (particularly if we don't want this dragging out over another year) we need to do both. Short but strict. Coupled with border restrictions and a working test, track, and trace. That's the least painful (and quickest) way out of this.

Whatever way you swing it and whatever decisions are best for health, and for society (and what a responsibility that is!) those SAGE documents definitely acknowledge the huge role schools (especially secondaries) play in transmission. The aforementioned Elephant in the Room lets the Cat out of the bag (mixed metaphor intended...)

@MarshaBradyo
If we continue the way we're going, schools won't be able to stay open. Staff will be off sick.

Face masks indoors, including for secondary school seems to be a good idea in that document

There aren’t any perfect scenarios through this winter. People seem unable to compromise or see wider implications of being so dogmatic re schools. It’s totally illogical especially regarding the effect on a huge number if not all children of train wrecking everything else.

We’re all in for a big surprise if we think today’s measures are enough. Even Whitty said they aren’t. It’s purely being done so Gov can say “well we tried” and we’ll all be in a huge mess come January.

They’re not even considering publicly the issue of reinfection which is starting to come to light.

@MarshaBradyo

Actually the word disruption doesn’t do this justice - School closures associated with possible increases in school drop-out, child injury, domestic violence, child abuse but reductions in referrals.

Harm would be more accurate

... Part of my concern about masks is that teachers can't see if a child is bruised there Can't see so easily if a child is distressed about something, hiding something and needs to talk

Schools have become essential for so much more than "just" education

People cling to part time. I’m yet to be convinced by this. But yet again it’s the same old so won’t repeat.

Piggy potentially. Low confidence for transmission

That's not exactly what it says marsha.

Personally, I would close school last of all, which afaik BJ has - sort of ! - promised
(but he breaks promises as easily as wind)

Merkel also said she would prioritise schools
which she did in the 1st wave
I believe her

That happened long before covid bigchoc.