Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

...those SAGE documents definitely acknowledge the huge role schools (especially secondaries) play in transmission.

Not exactly - it looks like SAGE could not decide whether they have got "moderate" or "low" confidence in the effectiveness of the measure. From the NPIs table (the school section)

Moderate impact. Closing all schools associated with a reduction in R of 0.2-~0.5 . Moderate confidence. Closure of secondary schools may be more effective (reduction in R of ~0.35) as link more households, higher numbers of contacts within schools and transmission to/from younger children may be more limited. Overall, low confidence, as unclear how much schools may contribute to community transmission.

From another document reviewed on the same date:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925854/S0769_Summary_of_effectiveness_and_harms_of_NPIs.pdf

It is still not clear to what extent (if any) schools magnify transmission in communities rather than reflect the prevalence within the community

I'm surprised that pt schools was not included in the table

We don't know if that would bring half of the R reduction of full closures, or more, or less

@Piggywaspushed

That happened long before covid bigchoc.

... Yes and schools are "childcare" in all senses, sometimes the only place of care

I'm surprised that pt schools was not included in the table

I think this scenario is partially covered on page 14:

Intervention
Alternating week-on, week-off school closure with half class sizes

Impact on COVID transmission
Moderate to low impact. Modelling for SAGE Schools subgroup suggests this could reduce average R by 0.1-0.2, depending on how much transmission occurs in schools. Low confidence, as remains unclear how infectious children may be.

@MarshaBradyo well perhaps the Gov needs to come up with enhanced protection for vulnerable kids through social care rather than rely on schools. Something has to give. It’s blatantly ridiculous that people would want schooling to remain as is if transmission isn’t able to be controlled. Children will be far more affected by deaths of relatives, loss of jobs leading to poverty, a depressed economy for the next generation.

It’s crazy.

It is there? One week on/one week off is on the table?

They obviously do discuss schools a lot and I am pleased they discuss equity issues and they absolutely should not be ignored : but schools are not - and should nit be- the sole agencies to intervene in DV issues etc. The cynic in me thinks these thing also happen in 6 week summer holidays without too many politicians batting an eyelid.

@Piggywaspushed

That's not exactly what it says marsha.

Overall low confidence as unclear how much schools may contribute to community transmission.

@Oaktree55

There aren’t any perfect scenarios through this winter. People seem unable to compromise or see wider implications of being so dogmatic re schools. It’s totally illogical especially regarding the effect on a huge number if not all children of train wrecking everything else.

We’re all in for a big surprise if we think today’s measures are enough. Even Whitty said they aren’t. It’s purely being done so Gov can say “well we tried” and we’ll all be in a huge mess come January.

They’re not even considering publicly the issue of reinfection which is starting to come to light.

I think more places need to go in T3.

But the fear is that once you go into T3 you'll never get out of it and its unachievable to get out. And without details of the threshold for T3 there's no sense of how the government are government are making these decisions, other than for political reasons. Which is almost certainly the case.

Therefore places are going to do everything they can to avoid going in.

But tbh, I think some places are doomed to t3 because of depreivation. And this in about 2 or 3 weeks certainly won't be restricted to the North.

Whitty and SAGE have made this very clear.

Its just a matter of time before the public realise this and how things are going to get a LOT worse.

[quote Oaktree55]@MarshaBradyo well perhaps the Gov needs to come up with enhanced protection for vulnerable kids through social care rather than rely on schools. Something has to give. It’s blatantly ridiculous that people would want schooling to remain as is if transmission isn’t able to be controlled. Children will be far more affected by deaths of relatives, loss of jobs leading to poverty, a depressed economy for the next generation.

It’s crazy.[/quote]
I agree with BigChoc on this.

Not just for vulnerable element but because education is crucial and statements on low spread from Van Tam etc

I am rather enjoying their typo of anectodoatal

Whilst at the same time rolling my eyes slightly at SAGE accepting anecdata!

Overall low confidence as unclear how much schools may contribute to community transmission. I know it's their statement and not yours marsha but never has there been such lack of clarity in one statement!

@Piggywaspushed

Overall low confidence as unclear how much schools may contribute to community transmission. I know it's their statement and not yours marsha but never has there been such lack of clarity in one statement!

Sometimes I think this we are offered just enough to keep us debating but no more, and have been all this time ;

fwiw Germany school stats

To be exact for all schools, nurseries, kindergardens, childcare, childrens' homes combined

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/NeuartigesCoronavirus/Situationsberichte/Oktt_2020/2020-10-12-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

Staff

1 million

5,216 Cases
211 Hospitalised
8 Deaths

Kids
11 million at school (6+), no figures for the others

10,844 Cases
156 Hospitalised
1 Death

Schools have been back ft starting from 3 August up to 1 September (different dates for the 16 states)
Childcare from 2 June

Secondary have masks for corridors & stairs
One state had masks in class too for secondary, but iirc has since stopped

@wintertravel1980

I'm surprised that pt schools was not included in the table

I think this scenario is partially covered on page 14:

Intervention
Alternating week-on, week-off school closure with half class sizes

Impact on COVID transmission
Moderate to low impact. Modelling for SAGE Schools subgroup suggests this could reduce average R by 0.1-0.2, depending on how much transmission occurs in schools. Low confidence, as remains unclear how infectious children may be.

... oh thank you I missed that !

There's plenty of data on how abusers very commonly avoid leaving marks in visible places, i.e. the face.

How do we help vulnerable children (and adults) when things spin further out of control (which they will if we don't do more to contain it)?

I find it rather disturbing to think of sending a child back to abuse day after day. We need to invest more in the social care system. It's also worth noting that data has shown abusive or neglectful parents often simply keep the child off school (this was pre pandemic but it's unlikely to have changed). We need to step up our social care rather than rely on schools.

How do schools stay open if staff are off sick (potentially for months if they develop Long Covid)?

Countries that recognised the value of short-term pain, long-term gain, now have better functioning economies - and their schools are open as normal.

@wintertravel1980

I'm surprised that pt schools was not included in the table

I think this scenario is partially covered on page 14:

Intervention
Alternating week-on, week-off school closure with half class sizes

Impact on COVID transmission
Moderate to low impact. Modelling for SAGE Schools subgroup suggests this could reduce average R by 0.1-0.2, depending on how much transmission occurs in schools. Low confidence, as remains unclear how infectious children may be.

Ok thanks. R not as high, but some of same issues as mass closure (somewhat mitigated) plus economic hit. And complex to deliver

"But the fear is that once you go into T3 you'll never get out of it and its unachievable to get out."

Red For N England especially, it looks like "Lockdown California"

@SheepandCow some very good points.

Masks unlikely to make much difference to detection of physical abuse. And teachers don't need to necessarily see all of a student's face to know when there's something wrong.

What are the class sizes like in Germany?

In any event, Germany has contained Covid far more successfully than the UK. Lower number of cases when they opened up (from lockdown), early treatment for those who got ill - and of course their very good test, track, and trace.

We sent children back when our cases were much higher than Germany's - and with no working test, track, and trace system.

Germany also has a lot more ICU beds than us. Don't they have about double the number of the rest of Europe put together? Perhaps not quite that many but definitely many more than us.

@MarshaBradyo of course education is important no one is saying let’s ditch education. There is a more balanced approach though.

Your way (if the majority complied which they won’t) is don’t see extended family till Spring, sacrifice the economy further, push a large proportion of children (probably far more than are currently at risk) into poverty at home with the negative effects that brings.

Anyway I’ll stop there but seriously you and the majority who can’t see beyond 100% schools as normal need to think a bit wider. Read some updates from teachers in Liverpool that might bring you into reality.

Oaktree again I’m not for closing sectors.
I’ve never got in with that pubs v schools stuff that goes on in here.

Yes cutting down indoor socialisation is hard but keep outdoor can mean you can see family.

Wfh is easy and makes sense.

It's also surprising that SAGE seems unsure about the impact shielding had in the Spring, so therefore doesn't particularly recommend it this time (layman's terms).

Main issue is why don't we have any real clue of the level of impact schools have on the R level. Or whatever. Collecting data between May and July was pointless, and a waste of money/time.

@ohthegoats

Main issue is why don't we have any real clue of the level of impact schools have on the R level. Or whatever. Collecting data between May and July was pointless, and a waste of money/time.

I remember something about South Korea. They reopened but then closed their schools again after a spike in infections. I'm sure they had a study that indicated older children at least (not sure the ages) spread it as much as adults.

This was a few months ago mind so perhaps more research has since concluded otherwise.

I'm always struck by the way we're told 'there's little evidence to show schools spread it'... yet rarely hear anything about evidence to suggest that they don't.

But we have been in near T3 in GM since August ( pub closures are the only major difference I can see plus I think "work from home if possible" came back in maybe mid September?) and our cases are growing still. What steps should we be taking next?