Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@RedToothBrush

In case anyone wants it the actual legislation for the Tier System can be found here:

www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1103/made
The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Local COVID-19 Alert Level) (Medium) (England) Regulations 2020

www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1104/made
The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Local COVID-19 Alert Level) (High) (England) Regulations 2020

www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1105/made
The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Local COVID-19 Alert Level) (Very High) (England) Regulations 2020

These are to be debated before the regulations come into force.

They are not small. Tier 2 is 13,000 words long!

It includes an exception rule for Rememberance Sunday.

It does include a list of Tier 2 counties.

... I wonder if MPs will read through this legislation, or just do as the Whips instruct

Heck, I wonder if BJ will read it
It could be "oven-ready" like the Withdrawal Agreement ....

Posting this here for information. Interesting the effect on R rate that school interventions predicted to have. Higher than most others.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf

"Long-term wouldn't those social issues be better resolved by us containing Covid asap?"

The 1st lockdown was long & brutal .... and Covid started rising again after only a couple of months

I wonder how many national lockdowns would be needed over winter, when people are indoors much more than March-April

[quote Oaktree55]Posting this here for information. Interesting the effect on R rate that school interventions predicted to have. Higher than most others.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf[/quote]
Us thus the same as below?

Many moderate but low confidence and high cost for schools

@Witchend my DD is also year 9, but in her school they have put them in one class for everything, they have one set and that is also their tutor group (normally they are set for every subject). They can only spend their lunch with this group too. They have to sit in the same seat all day and even at lunchtime and in lines have to be between the same people they sit next to. It does seem VERY prescriptive, but it means she has barely any contact with anyone not seated in the desks immediately next to her. We are in a very high risk area though, so that might be why they have done all that. I find it crazy that schools are left to work it out for themselves and there is so much difference between them.

@MarshaBradyo apologies if posted before I didn’t check!

I guess the confidence will come from the data and the research currently underway.

Oaktree I think given the high cost choosing other moderate impact areas makes far more sense.

@MarshaBradyo

I've just read through this. It is very interesting. From purely the point of stopping Covid ( not considering any negative effects) closing schools is one of the things that can cause the biggest reduction in R, short of complete lockdown

There are a few with moderate impact Except closing schools is low confidence and with high disruption

High. Disruption of education, wellbeing of children and parents.
School closures associated with possible increases in school drop-out, child injury, domestic violence, child abuse but reductions in referrals. Reductions in social interaction erode social development and harm general wellbeing, and mental health of children and parents.
Equity issues: Likely to have a higher adverse impact (education, physical and mental well-being) on vulnerable children and low income and BAME communities (e.g. less access to on-line learning / less space at home to study).

It is a good document and above is a stark read

I agree, a very stark read The complete schools closure says both moderate and low confidence overall which is a bit odd. It has a possible impact of reducing R by 0.2 to 0.5 though. You may have to close most leisure and hospitality including gyms and hairdressing to get a similar effect, especially in higher areas where some of the measures have already been taken. I just get very angry as I think things could ( and should) have been managed so much better.

[quote Oaktree55]Posting this here for information. Interesting the effect on R rate that school interventions predicted to have. Higher than most others.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf[/quote]
...
As posted, impact is "moderate" like several other measures and comes at high cost:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/925856/S07700NPIstablepivott.pdf

"Non-COVID impact (incl. social and psychological; excl. economic)

High. Disruption of education, wellbeing of children and parents.

School closures associated with possible increases in school drop-out, child injury, domestic violence, child abuse but reductions in referrals.
Reductions in social interaction erode social development and harm general wellbeing, and mental health of children and parents.

Equity issues:
Likely to have a higher adverse impact (education, physical and mental well-being) on vulnerable children and low income and BAME communities (e.g. less access to on-line learning / less space at home to study).

Implementation issues

Equity considerations in terms of impact on most vulnerable and BAME groups.

Schools which are more likely to be sites of transmission (high poverty, low resource), may be those with the least capacity to take up additional interventions due to background stressors and resource constraints.

Affected areas would suffer in terms of adequate preparation for public exams and therefore perceived fairness of the system.
Might need to be weighed in moderation of exam grading."

There aren’t any other choices! Not without bankrupting the whole economy, putting many families into poverty etc

Where does that impact kids??

Fergus Walsh @BBCFergusWalsh
SAGE documents just released show they recommended going much further than the PM has gone today back on 21st September with a raft of measures including a two week ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown

SAGE dismissive about Test and Trace system, saying it is having a marginal impact on transmission

@Oaktree55

There aren’t any other choices! Not without bankrupting the whole economy, putting many families into poverty etc

Where does that impact kids??

There are other moderate impact choices. Wfh and cutting down inter home contact

I do think at some point people have to be realistic about the economic harms and indirect harms to children of closing so much economically just to secure 100% face to face learning for all.

It’s simply illogical.

Of course there are other choices than school closure

"Encouragement to WFH" has about the same R
and can bring positive benefits

www.gov.uk/government/publications/fifty-eighth-sage-meeting-on-covid-19-21-september-2020
Full report here

I’m not for closing sectors.

But am for reducing socialisation and wfh obviously.

@ColouringPencils
At my dc's school they do options from year 9, so they can't keep in the same form.

We're low but coming up now, but I don't think that had any impact on their decision.

Oaktree does the negative impact outlined in that document re schools alter your thinking?

@MarshaBradyo the problem that will transpire with going down the limiting household mixing socially is that there won’t be high enough compliance. It’s evident from public opinion this isn’t happening in large enough numbers.

Unfortunately the Government has lost the goodwill so modelling can be carried out till the cows come home showing no mixing/closing pubs but unfortunately a high % will socialise indoors, still mix.

Whereas directing schools to switch to blended or older kids part time is implementable.

@Oaktree55

I do think at some point people have to be realistic about the economic harms and indirect harms to children of closing so much economically just to secure 100% face to face learning for all.

It’s simply illogical.

... That impact on R is complete closures Closing secondary alone is less of an impact

That table does not calculate pt schools, which seems the preferred option of some teachers

• I haven't yet read any teachers on MN advocating full closures even of secondary

When schools were "closed" I thought vulnerable children were able to attend with keyworkers' children.

@MarshaBradyo not at all does it alter my thinking because I’ve from Day 1 on these forums thought more widely about the impacts than “schools must stay open”

Perhaps because of my career I’m able to see the longer term effects and economic effects which will be equally as harmful.

Schools have always been open to vulnerable kids as well as key worker.

@BigChocFrenzy

"Long-term wouldn't those social issues be better resolved by us containing Covid asap?"

The 1st lockdown was long & brutal .... and Covid started rising again after only a couple of months

I wonder how many national lockdowns would be needed over winter, when people are indoors much more than March-April

I disagree that it was brutal. Certainly not compared to many other places including most of continental Europe. It also was never a proper lockdown because we had completely unrestricted borders with no quarantine whatsoever.

To contain it, we need a proper (but shorter) lockdown. No on off on off dragged out nonsense. Take effective measures to contain Covid.

Other countries (quite a few) have done it. All different to each other with varied populations and economies and geography. Where there's a will there's a way.

The problem is we need strong decisive leadership - including the ability to make (initially) unpopular decisions. I say initially because everywhere that's successfully contained Covid now understands just why those measures (tough as they were temporarily) were worthwhile. They're able to live largely normal lives now.

The key to a successful (and therefore ultimately shorter) lockdown is border restriction (with proper quarantine for essential travel like imports). That, and easing out gradually. With a functioning test, track, and trace system.

We failed to do any of it properly. Hence the need for another then another sort of but not proper one. On and on and on it goes for another year.

Encouraging WFH is about the same R as full closure of primary & secondary
and brings benefits to many employees

So that's a no-brainer as a measure

Interesting SAGE think Track and Trace is a Pile of Arse which is having minimal effect.