Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

If you get a random case in year 7 and year 12 it’s unlikely they are close contacts and spread it at school. But wanted to check if they were siblings, hence the question

I suspect that the decision about which tier a region is in is just a temporary 'base' level. At present my level of restriction in Greater Manchester is significantly more relaxed than previously. We were not permitted to meet anyone outside our household/support bubble in house or garden and were advised not to do it at all, even in parks and rates were still increasing.
Now I could meet others from 5 different households in a garden.
I think we will move very quickly to tier 3 once Andy Burnham has finished negotiating everything he can out of the government
Apart from pubs and bars closing and still being free to travel we have been pretty much in tier 3 restrictions since the beginning of August.
I think Whitty is right that it is going to take much more than this to get things under control.

An unpleasant knock-on effect of this crisis:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/07/covid-19-crisis-boosts-the-fortunes-of-worlds-billionaires

A report by Swiss bank UBS found that billionaires increased their wealth by more than a quarter (27.5%) at the height of the crisis from April to July,
just as millions of people around the world lost their jobs
or were struggling to get by on government schemes.

@Nellodee - yes. More likely to be a third party involved if there is a short time-span between infections (1-3 days), but it's still more likely in your example that both would have been infected in school by the third party.

My dd's brass band (not school) is meeting on zoom and expecting to be like that till at least after Christmas.

@BigChocFrenzy

An unpleasant knock-on effect of this crisis:

[[https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/07/covid-19-crisis-boosts-the-fortunes-of-worlds-billionaires]]

A report by Swiss bank UBS found that billionaires increased their wealth by more than a quarter (27.5%) at the height of the crisis from April to July,
just as millions of people around the world lost their jobs
or were struggling to get by on government schemes.

Imagine if they clubbed together to pay for the costs of short-term New Zealand/Australia style containment measures. And/or covered the costs of manufacturing and distributing that very expensive medication Trump was given.

@BigChocFrenzy

An unpleasant knock-on effect of this crisis:

[[https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/07/covid-19-crisis-boosts-the-fortunes-of-worlds-billionaires]]

A report by Swiss bank UBS found that billionaires increased their wealth by more than a quarter (27.5%) at the height of the crisis from April to July,
just as millions of people around the world lost their jobs
or were struggling to get by on government schemes.

Not surprised. I can see a widening effect even in here

By the way, before dinner someone commented that they could now get cases by specimen date, but only by nation. If you input your local authority then you can also get them by local authority, it's been in place for a little while now.
E.g. Liverpool: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Liverpool.

Sage have released their analysis of the effects of different measures to reduce spread of covid (and negative consequences of each measure)

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf

www.lancashire.gov.uk/news/details/?Id=PR20/0296

Idiot councillors. Celebrating that they've stayed in tier 2 when they know they need to be tier 3

Re shielding.
The conditions that put you at very highest risk of serious illness or death are in public knowledge now. The initial shielding list got it very wrong. Diabetics and several other extremely clinically vulnerable were left out.

The problem for the government is a large number of the highly vulnerable work in essential jobs - hospital and social care workers, teachers and other school staff. Then there's their households - including the children.

It's also problematic in that other factors increase your risk. Age (from 45), ethnicity, sex, deprivation, and whether you live in an urban or more rural area. Excluding one group from the shielding list - leaving them less protected than others - is a political gamble.

Shielding also ignores the risk of Long Covid. We now know that death isn't the other danger. People face potential long-term disability if they develop Long Covid.

Rolling 7-day deaths increasing

From the grim look of Van-Tam, I suspect he might be preparing us for some grim figures over the next 3 weeks, those that have already been "baked in" and cannot be stopped

Richard@RP131 UK

...The PHE dataset merge resulted in a net of 7 additional deaths today.

This moves the 7 day rolling average up by 4.4 to 72.3.

*only danger

@PrayingandHoping just saw this

Praying - I’m getting the impression that each council is “cherry picking” the extra measures and financial packages that it wants before going into tier 3. Bill Esterton was pretty blunt and said as much. My suspicion is that Lancashire will close slightly different things from LCR just to make the whole thing more confusing, and our supposedly simplified system will be a mishmash of rules again...

[quote GetAMoveOnTroodon]Sage have released their analysis of the effects of different measures to reduce spread of covid (and negative consequences of each measure)

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf[/quote]
I've just read through this. It is very interesting. From purely the point of stopping Covid ( not considering any negative effects) closing schools is one of the things that can cause the biggest reduction in R, short of complete lockdown.

@GetAMoveOnTroodon do it differently just so they have 1 upmanship and when they are up for re-election they hope they will have something to boast about 🤨

I've just read through this. It is very interesting. From purely the point of stopping Covid ( not considering any negative effects) closing schools is one of the things that can cause the biggest reduction in R, short of complete lockdown

There are a few with moderate impact Except closing schools is low confidence and with high disruption

High. Disruption of education, wellbeing of children and parents.
School closures associated with possible increases in school drop-out, child injury, domestic violence, child abuse but reductions in referrals. Reductions in social interaction erode social development and harm general wellbeing, and mental health of children and parents.
Equity issues: Likely to have a higher adverse impact (education, physical and mental well-being) on vulnerable children and low income and BAME communities (e.g. less access to on-line learning / less space at home to study).

It is a good document and above is a stark read

In case anyone wants it the actual legislation for the Tier System can be found here:

www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1103/made
The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Local COVID-19 Alert Level) (Medium) (England) Regulations 2020

www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1104/made
The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Local COVID-19 Alert Level) (High) (England) Regulations 2020

www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1105/made
The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Local COVID-19 Alert Level) (Very High) (England) Regulations 2020

These are to be debated before the regulations come into force.

They are not small. Tier 2 is 13,000 words long!

It includes an exception rule for Rememberance Sunday.

It does include a list of Tier 2 counties.

Everyone warned what would happen if they opened schools with no mitigating measures for airborne transmission, esp in crowded, poorly ventilated places. And lo, it has come to pass & still they do nothing other than slowly grind the economy to dust area by area. And then schools will have to close anyway. Just feel a sense of despair tonight.
Interesting that even the IMF is saying a short stringent lockdown is better for economy than a series of mild rolling lockdown-lites
twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1315642546215948288?s=21

Overall, low confidence, as unclear how much schools may contribute to community transmission.

I can see why from confidence and disruption perspective other areas are chosen first

And I don’t want schools to close BTW. I just want mitigation measures - masks in classrooms, increased physical distancing, better ventilation etc

From purely the point of stopping Covid ( not considering any negative effects) closing schools is one of the things that can cause the biggest reduction in R, short of complete lockdown.

Which surely implies that keeping schools open has a significant impact on keeping R higher than we need it to be. So to keep them open we need a lot of other measures in place. Possibly more than the current tier 3. Perhaps they’ll introduce a tier 4 at some stage.

Ari That is not quite how I read that table in the link

"mass school closures" are listed as "moderate" impact
same as closing pubs & restaurants
several other measures are "moderate" too

They don't list impact of pt school, which would be the more likely measure

Includes lockdown as:
"very high impact"

also "low to moderate" - gym ! Good to see it is lower than I expected 🏋🏼‍♀️
and "low" impact measures

Long-term wouldn't those social issues be better resolved by us containing Covid asap? Dragging it out, the way we've done for the past 8 or 9 months has taken a particularly heavy toll on these same people - many of whom (largely because of their circumstances) are at increased risk from Covid. They'd also be heavily impacted by Long Covid, and the long-term economic damage caused by failing to get on top of Covid. Isn't it the case that countries who've contained Covid have healthier economies.