Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@MarshaBradyo

Or simply be siblings and live in the same house.

That’s very easy to link. Are they siblings?

Wouldn't necessarily be easy to link/discount links considering the number of asymptomatic cases there can be-and more I think if they're younger.

So child A, year 1, gives it to Child B1 (also in year 1)
Child A is tested positive, child B1 has it asymptomatically so isn't tested.

Child B1 gives it to siblings B2 (year 2) and B3 (year 3), who also have it asymptomatically.

Child B3 gives it to friend Child C in year 3, who has symptoms and is tested positive.

Child A and Child C apparently have no contact, so they would be concluded to both be isolated cases who caught it outside.

At secondary ds is year 9. His bubble is 300 pupils, the whole year. He won't have contact with a fair number. But he's in different classes for all 10 different subjects (science are the only ones they are the same) he does.
I'll suspect that you could find a link between him and any other child in the year with no more than 2 children between them.

Then 50%+ children come by public transport, add in siblings, out of school clubs etc and you'll have an awful lot of links over the school however hard you try.

@MRex, that probably is true. But in the press conference, BJ was talking about the review in the context of not leaving areas on restrictions indefinitely. So seemed to be talking about when to reduce restrictions. The same idea would apply to switching restrictions tho. You need time for measurable data to come through before you can see if the current restrictions are working. I don’t think that the same time frame applies to moving an area to a higher tier tho.

Most classes in sen schools can have 3-4 staff per class

Tbh, it's not uncommon in mainstream primaries too. In the year group i work in, adult numbers are 1-2; 4; 3. Another year group has 4; 3; 4.

@ancientgran - yes, shouters (or even just louder talkers) were proven quite early on to transmit more virus, there was also an article about particles hanging in the air for longer after shouting. Singing is also bad, but mostly because it's hard to sing quietly .
www.businessinsider.com/loud-talking-singing-spread-coronavirus-further-than-6-feet-2020-3
www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/13/1001696/loud-talking-could-leave-coronavirus-in-the-air-for-up-to-14-minutes/

Yes, new measures probably need 2 weeks to affect cases, 3 weeks to affect hospitalisations

whereas if incidence in an area starts rocketing then it needs to be addressed earlier - after about a week? - long enough to verify the sharp trend

Witchend I meant easy for Nellodee to know (I assume) if they were siblings. Easy to find out if they are I should have said

*That is ridiculous
Staff need to be able to protect themselves from each other, at a minimum
I don't see how that affects education of any child

The 2m distance would reduce risk a lot, but do staff really talk to each other at that distance - and without shouting which would increase risk*

Reason number 534 why UK teachers are a tad cross.

Shouting and singing helps explain a lot of superspreader events at churches, carnivals
any big crowd, even outdoors,
or a smaller group with a lot of background noise, such as some workplaces,
anywhere people have to yell to be heard

Oh, but it's ok!

There's no singing or shouting.

I note that van tam emphasised noise as being a risk factor via singing and loud talking. Along with the 3 Cs and a V (that I forget or was that volume?) and a D...

Except that I know of an awful lot of schools where singing is happening. I've seen it on threads on mn too.

I'm VERY aware of the fact that I project my voice a lot.

Oh and I would definitely ban singing in school - sorry to any music teachers ! - and probably blowing brass instruments too - apologies to school orchestras

Also, if feasible warnings and then detentions for shouting

Can anyone help me with this riddle?

What are the purple and lime lines please?

@NeurotrashWarrior

Oh, but it's ok!

There's no singing or shouting.

I note that van tam emphasised noise as being a risk factor via singing and loud talking. Along with the 3 Cs and a V (that I forget or was that volume?) and a D...

Except that I know of an awful lot of schools where singing is happening. I've seen it on threads on mn too.

... iirc V - Ventilation D - Duration

@BigChocFrenzy

Oh and I would definitely ban singing in school - sorry to any music teachers ! - and probably blowing brass instruments too - apologies to school orchestras

Also, if feasible warnings and then detentions for shouting

It's on the guidance as 2 m (possibly changed to 3??)

The local choristers are doing 2 m apart.

neuro - yes when I was there my home town had had pretty much no cases for many weeks. Even understanding logically how quickly it can rise it still shocked me how quickly it then rose.

@cantkeepawayforever - your Head should be challenged on how their risk assessment fits within the guidance, because it is at their discretion.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-in-education/face-coverings-in-education#:~:text=Nationwide%2C%20the%20government%20is%20not,environments%2C%20provides%20additional%20mitigating%20measures.

1. It is guidance, it does not mandate no masks
2. It says heads might recommend masks in communal areas, and that they "should" do so in areas of high transmission
3. A further example given of wearing masks is the staff room, specifically due to inability to distance
4. In areas of high transmission Y7+ "it will not usually be necessary to wear face coverings in the classroom" leaves scope for a Head to require face coverings in class for everyone who is not exempt.

I've always said kids should come with a remote control so you could turn the volume down.

@BigChocFrenzy, @NeurotrashWarrior - I’m pretty sure they changed the guidance on singing and wind instruments in school. It was definitely very restricted when the first guidance cane out. However when I discovered my school was both singing and doing whole year wind I went and checked again ( because I wanted to challenge it) and it seems to have been really softened.

V - Ventilation*
D - Duration*

I thought V was volume. I'll try to listen to it later.

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Lancashire council leaders are saying they expect to be in tier 3 by the end of the week. It’s way more of a mess than it was before!

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

This is currently on gov website tonight for who's in tier 2. However calls them areas not councils. So who flipping knows because my in laws council has been in under restrictions for weeks and now we have no idea.....

Yes, new measures probably need 2 weeks to affect cases, 3 weeks to affect hospitalisations

If you include the “lag” in reporting cases, plus any “weekend effect” in hospitalisations, I’d say 4 weeks is a minimum to see if there is a genuine impact, rather then a statistically insignificant reduction.

Occam's razor here - no siblings, but some best friends and some sat next to each other.

I think the simplest route is probably the most likely - the ones who are best friends but in different classes caught it either at breaks or outside school, the ones who don't socialise but sat next to each other caught it in class. I think it would be far less likely for the children sat next to each other in class to have passed it to a sibling, who then passed it to another child outside school, who passed it to their sibling, who then just happened to sit next to the original child.

@Nellodee

Occam's razor here - no siblings, but some best friends and some sat next to each other.

I think the simplest route is probably the most likely - the ones who are best friends but in different classes caught it either at breaks or outside school, the ones who don't socialise but sat next to each other caught it in class. I think it would be far less likely for the children sat next to each other in class to have passed it to a sibling, who then passed it to another child outside school, who passed it to their sibling, who then just happened to sit next to the original child.

Oh no not at all.

I meant are your positive cases in separate years siblings?

I assumed not

[quote littlestpogo]**@BigChocFrenzy, @NeurotrashWarrior - I’m pretty sure they changed the guidance on singing and wind instruments in school. It was definitely very restricted when the first guidance cane out. However when I discovered my school was both singing and doing whole year wind I went and checked again ( because I wanted to challenge it) and it seems to have been really softened.[/quote]
Sorry, I think I got the wrong end of the stick there!

Eep, didn't mean to quote pogo (though I went through the exact same process you did). I think I need an early night.