Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Are there such things as super spreaders, or are there super spreading events though?

@ChloeCrocodile - 28 days could also be about just changing the restrictions. If measures just aren't working and there's evidence of extremely low spread in hospitality from the Tier 2, then it could be decided to open up hospitality but universities must go online (if that's spread) / mass testing an area (if it's postcode-limited) / close certain work activities / masks outdoors and everywhere except your home - whatever it is that's identified as responsible for actual spread.

@Nellodee - from research, there are both.

Are super spreaders just people who tend to attend multiple super spreading events?

I'm curious as to whether what makes them super spreaders is physical, or behavioural.

@Nellodee

Sorry, this is more maths than data, but what I am saying is this.

2 people, A and B, 1 link.
3 people, AB, BC, AC 3 links (+2)
4 people, AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD 6 links (+3)
5 people 10 links (+4)
6 people 16 links (+5)

Maths teachers will recognise this as "The Handshake Investigation", which is when you get children to work out how many handshakes you will need for every person in the class to shake the hand of every other person in the class.

As you increase the size of the school, or the size of the bubble within the school, you don't just increase the risk proportionally to the size of the bubble, but to the size of the links within the bubble (which don't increase linearly. 1,2 3, but increase as triangular numbers, 1,3,6,10 T = n(n+1)/2 ).

If I'm correct, then it isn't age that is the determining factor of spread, but size of bubble. This would absolutely seem age related, as the size of the bubbles increases with age, meaning that the proportions are higher in older year groups with bigger bubbles.

Sorry, this isn't really data, but it's a fun theory and when I get struck by an idea, I have to vent it somewhere!

.... Excellent series of maths & stats posts, 👏🏽 what a data thread should have about schools in the absence of official data

Some people have been found to generate loads more droplets

If I'm correct, then it isn't age that is the determining factor of spread, but size of bubble. This would absolutely seem age related, as the size of the bubbles increases with age, meaning that the proportions are higher in older year groups with bigger bubbles.

I get it (I think) - so you're saying size of bubble is what causes higher rates in certain age groups not anything specific about the physiology of those ages.

What we're seeing is an effect of environment they are in (specifically number of links within their environment) not inherent biology (which is what some people have assumed).

I've always thought that the much larger bubbles in secondary were important in the difference between the observations in secondary and primary so far, but hadn't been able to articulate it so eloquently, and mathematically.

Though I can't help but hope "The Handshake Investigation" is off the syllabus for this year.... (I know they're all sitting right next to each other rubbing shoulders, I know....)

Virus genome G spreads more effectively with higher viral load. There are also behavioural factors. There are also generally riskier events. I also read some research about certain individuals having unexpectedly much higher transmission, but I'd need to search for it again as didn't save it.

@Nellodee

Are super spreaders just people who tend to attend multiple super spreading events?

I'm curious as to whether what makes them super spreaders is physical, or behavioural.

From the literature, e.g. above Atlantic link but I have umpteen..

It requires both:

Physically:
I can hunt up some papers I've read about virus shedding, but basically some people shed large amounts of virus at a particular time, even though the progress of their case is otherwise normal
Noone knows why the difference

Then of course they need opportunity:
if they were isolated for 2 weeks, including from family, then obviously they can infect noone
If they attend an event with many people during their period of shedding - which seems to be at least partly before symptoms - then they can infect dozens, hundreds, thousands

Apart from poor old Patient 31, who must feel so guilty, there are several other cases at churches
and the early German epicentres were mostly carnivals - outdoor ones !

Thanks! I'll do my very best to keep my observations as statistical as possible from now on, I promise.

@Nellodee

Sorry, this is more maths than data, but what I am saying is this.

2 people, A and B, 1 link.
3 people, AB, BC, AC 3 links (+2)
4 people, AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD 6 links (+3)
5 people 10 links (+4)
6 people 16 links (+5)

Maths teachers will recognise this as "The Handshake Investigation", which is when you get children to work out how many handshakes you will need for every person in the class to shake the hand of every other person in the class.

As you increase the size of the school, or the size of the bubble within the school, you don't just increase the risk proportionally to the size of the bubble, but to the size of the links within the bubble (which don't increase linearly. 1,2 3, but increase as triangular numbers, 1,3,6,10 T = n(n+1)/2 ).

If I'm correct, then it isn't age that is the determining factor of spread, but size of bubble. This would absolutely seem age related, as the size of the bubbles increases with age, meaning that the proportions are higher in older year groups with bigger bubbles.

Sorry, this isn't really data, but it's a fun theory and when I get struck by an idea, I have to vent it somewhere!

This is a very interesting theory. But how close are the contacts to each other in a larger bubble and does this have an impact?

I easily know my primary dc spends the day with 25 students but I’m not sure about secondary dc. Are they put in a large bubble but close contact with a positive student less likely?

I’m interested in your matts bit have not actually been in a secondary school in U.K.

In your maths that is

@Nellodee

Thanks! I'll do my very best to keep my observations as statistical as possible from now on, I promise.

I thought it good!

How awful to turn out to be one of the physical super spreaders at the beginning of the outbreak. If you are revealed as being one, it must feel terrible.

@Nellodee
Thank you for your handshake post Very clear to understand.

@IloveJKRowling

If someone at a school is a superspreader - and the large number of documented cases so far only include adult superspreaders - then they could infect a lot of people

Gulp. Says in a tiny voice.. there are quite a lot of adults at secondary school. One superspreader could take out the entire staff in a secondary.

... Yes Note: the large number of documented cases so far are all adult superspreaders, no kids

So one staff member could indeed infect most of an entire staff, plus likely quite a lot of kids

It is imo a particular danger in SEN schools where several adults must work in close proximity,
but I hope staff in any school would keep their distance from each other and wear masks when together

iirc, there was a British superspreader early in March who was totally cooperative as soon as the authorities notified him,
but his name became known and he received some very unfair criticism for unknowingly infecting many people

Obviously strict anonymity is required
but that does nothing for the guilt superspreaders must feel - if indeed they are ever tracked and made aware

I hope staff in any school would keep their distance from each other and wear masks when together

We are not allowed to wear masks in school, at all. Not when with children, not in the corridors, not when meeting other staff, not when conducting meetings with parents [a whole other story]. We are just not allowed to wear them.

Although having the cases spread across different year groups implies they are not linked they could be linked by out of school activity or school transport

Or simply be siblings and live in the same house.

I realise my mistake "6 outside, including in a garden or other space" - I was reading 6 outside (including a garden) and other space, and taking "other space" to include indoors. The SI's themselves are much clearer and don't let me be confused.

Or simply be siblings and live in the same house.

That’s very easy to link. Are they siblings?

Is superspreading behavioural as well? I'm not a hugger and like people to respect my personal space so would I be less likely to spread it than someone who doesn't respect personal space and is very touchy feely? Or shouters, I used to work with someone who was really loud, would she be more likely to spread it than someone who is quiet? I think JVT mentioned volume and we all now about space as in hands face space.

Hope it isn't like Typhoid Mary, she spent years in isolation.

This is a very recent news report, related to the walking orange biological weapon currently in the White House:

Covid-19 superspreader events emerge as focus of concern

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/covid-superspreader-events-emerge-focus-concern-n1242389

But there's also a lot of individual variation, and it's not clear whether any infected person - given the right environmental factors - could become a superspreader.

"I don't think we can differentiate whether it's due to the individual or just the event,"
said Seema Lakdawala, an assistant professor of microbiology and molecular genetics at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine.
"I would argue that they are both really important."

It is imo a particular danger in SEN schools where several adults must work in close proximity,
but I hope staff in any school would keep their distance from each other and wear masks when together

Yes this is a huge concern for both staff and pupils, and their families.

In primary, no masks, but some carry them in case we end up in a closed space.

Obviously if a child is very distressed all SD with adults goes to the wind.

There's no real SD with pupils as their personal needs are too high. But fewer children.

I know of one primary sen school that has completely shut after just 5 weeks of being open. More staff than pupils infected.

Most classes in sen schools can have 3-4 staff per class, or more in really specialist schools. Our risk assessment has tried to keep it low; some of our pupils are very distressed after being off for so long so there's had to be extra staff shuffled about.

Lots of windows open and clearly defined bubbles; the ppa staff do worry a bit as they visit different bubbles.

@cantkeepawayforever

I hope staff in any school would keep their distance from each other and wear masks when together

We are not allowed to wear masks in school, at all. Not when with children, not in the corridors, not when meeting other staff, not when conducting meetings with parents [a whole other story]. We are just not allowed to wear them.

... That is ridiculous Staff need to be able to protect themselves from each other, at a minimum I don't see how that affects education of any child

The 2m distance would reduce risk a lot, but do staff really talk to each other at that distance - and without shouting which would increase risk