Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Although having the cases spread across different year groups implies they are not linked they could be linked by out of school activity or school transport.

In the high risk tier, people cannot meet different household indoors at all (whether in a house, pub, restaurant etc), they can only meet outside

(Sorry that was to @sirfredfredgeorge)

Sir fred

Your first comment is re: Tier 1. You can meet indoors OR outdoors in groups of 6

Your second is re Tier 2. You CANNOT have people indoors. And only 6 outdoors.

@sirfredfredgeorge

"People must not meet in groups larger than 6, indoors or outdoors"

and

"People must not meet in a group of more than 6 outside, including in a garden or other space"

I don't understand the difference?

because there is non. I'm being cynical, but it looks like these restrictions are based on friends and family requests, not on any underlying scientific thought.

Snap!

@sirfredgeorge is absolutely right that cases are not evenly distributed, but are in clusters. I would say once you have 1 case, your chances of having another increase, and with every additional case, they increase more.

So it could be the reason for your school higher than community cases

changing tiers:
If you’re in tier 2 or 3 it will be reviewed after 28 days. Why so long? What if you are tier 2 and things get worse?
If you’re not in a tier, what happens to make them add you and when can this happen? Apparently Sadiq Khan has said London might be tier 2 in a few days... www.mylondon.news/news/local-news/london-covid-stricter-high-level-19092499

Whitty did say the restrictions in tier 3 don’t go far enough.

It's not going to be enough.
Have they said if they can staff the nightingales this time, all very well getting them ready

[quote MarshaBradyo]**@sirfredgeorge is absolutely right that cases are not evenly distributed, but are in clusters. I would say once you have 1 case, your chances of having another increase, and with every additional case, they increase more.

So it could be the reason for your school higher than community cases[/quote]
Well yes... because people are spreading it to each other! That's really my whole theory, isn't it? That cases rise not just in proportion to the amount of people, but in proportion to the amount of possible links between people? So a school that is 10x bigger will have far more than 10x the amount of cases.

Covid Dispersion Factor, K

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-alll

SARS-CoV-2 .....Without social distancing, this reproduction number (R) is about three.
But in real life, some people infect many others and others don’t spread the disease at all.
.....
That’s why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k),
which describes how much a disease clusters.

The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people
.....
In a seminal 2005 Nature paper, Lloyd-Smith and co-authors estimated that SARS, in which superspreading played a major role had a k of 0.16.
The estimated k for MERS, which emerged in 2012, is about 0.25.
In the flu pandemic of 1918, in contrast, the value was about one, indicating that clusters played less of a role.
......
in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1
“Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,”

I think the “review after 28 days” thing was in relation to reducing restrictions. Which makes sense really because it gives enough time for the restrictions to have a measurable impact. Especially as the most recent data is always inaccurate due to the lag.

So they introduce three tiers so everyone knows what each tier means and what is and isn’t allowed on each tier then Chris Whitty says tier 3 often won’t be enough bit is a base on which to add additional measures on top of it as necessary. So how does that make things simpler and clearer to everyone?! I’m feeling a bit ‘what’s the point of the tiers’ tbh, it feels like it’s pretty much no change from where we were just the same thing but put in a way they can make a new Nando’s chart with some colours.

Nellodee yes in the community. But your original point was to say that your school was experiencing higher than level if cases than your community?

I don’t think what you’ve said reflects this higher school transmission.

Extreme example:

S Korea has had under 25,000 confirmed cases and it looks like just 1 person generated 20% of them:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

in Daegu, South Korea, just one woman, dubbed Patient 31, generated more than 5,000 known caseses_ in a megachurch cluster.^

[quote littlestpogo]@NeurotrashWarrior - I’m from there so know what you mean about the sun. Also I must admit I went up to see my elderly parent ( stayed in a B and B and met outside as she is so anxious) and I felt so much more relaxed when I was there as opposed to where I live. It definitely felt more ‘normal’[/quote]
Aw that's lll sounds lovely!

Yes, everyone relaxed. The sun was lovely. But then the virus got out of control. Our levels weren't good when schools and unis went back so it was bound to get out of hand.

@Reastie

So they introduce three tiers so everyone knows what each tier means and what is and isn’t allowed on each tier then Chris Whitty says tier 3 often won’t be enough bit is a base on which to add additional measures on top of it as necessary. So how does that make things simpler and clearer to everyone?! I’m feeling a bit ‘what’s the point of the tiers’ tbh, it feels like it’s pretty much no change from where we were just the same thing but put in a way they can make a new Nando’s chart with some colours.

I kind of took that to mean that there are some base restrictions for tier 3 (closure of pubs, no weddings, a ban on households mixing indoor and outdoor, advice not to travel) but then some add-ons which would depend on the local consultation / so for example in Liverpool, tier 3 includes closure of gyms and casinos etc, but they might not be deemed to be high risk in another area.

[quote littlestpogo]@NeurotrashWarrior - I’m from there so know what you mean about the sun. Also I must admit I went up to see my elderly parent ( stayed in a B and B and met outside as she is so anxious) and I felt so much more relaxed when I was there as opposed to where I live. It definitely felt more ‘normal’[/quote]
Aw that's lll sounds lovely!

Yes, everyone relaxed. The sun was lovely. But then the virus got out of control. Our levels weren't good when schools and unis went back so it was bound to get out of hand.

Lancashire council leaders are saying they expect to be in tier 3 by the end of the week. It’s way more of a mess than it was before!

What no one in the NE can work out is whether things just got better for us or not.

We couldn't mix with anyone, now we seem to be able to meet in outside spaces up to 6.

Yet the bbc rules website says no different.

V confusing.

Sorry for double post.

There are other reasons for clusters that haven't been mentioned; obviously cases in the community comes top to enable anyone to be infected, but:

1. Siblings and other close family members who've spent lengthy time indoors
2. Families mixing, especially indoors; "the kids mix at school anyway so it's fine", adults infect each other and kids, kids sleep over and infect each other (length of time is hugely significant, hence overnight stay being such an issue)
3. People are most infectious roughly in the day before symptoms and 2 days after; if the day before falls on a weekend they're staying home or just outside, less infections. If it's a rainy day when they're on a 10-pub crawl drunkenly shouting at all their mates over everyone else's heads and sharing food/ drinks/ cigarettes then it's a bad day.
4. Parents working together, e.g. factory; many may live near each other.
5. Bad luck. For all those who get away with taking all manner of risks, others bring the percentage back up with bad luck.

If someone at a school is a superspreader

• and the large number of documented cases so far only include adult superspreaders - then they could infect a lot of people

For some unknown reason, some people for a period of time, which seems to be before significant symptoms, shed a much higher level than normal of virus.
If they are with a crowd for sufficient time during this period, then they can infect a lot of people

Sorry, this is more maths than data, but what I am saying is this.

2 people, A and B, 1 link.
3 people, AB, BC, AC 3 links (+2)
4 people, AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD 6 links (+3)
5 people 10 links (+4)
6 people 16 links (+5)

Maths teachers will recognise this as "The Handshake Investigation", which is when you get children to work out how many handshakes you will need for every person in the class to shake the hand of every other person in the class.

As you increase the size of the school, or the size of the bubble within the school, you don't just increase the risk proportionally to the size of the bubble, but to the size of the links within the bubble (which don't increase linearly. 1,2 3, but increase as triangular numbers, 1,3,6,10 T = n(n+1)/2 ).

If I'm correct, then it isn't age that is the determining factor of spread, but size of bubble. This would absolutely seem age related, as the size of the bubbles increases with age, meaning that the proportions are higher in older year groups with bigger bubbles.

Sorry, this isn't really data, but it's a fun theory and when I get struck by an idea, I have to vent it somewhere!

If someone at a school is a superspreader - and the large number of documented cases so far only include adult superspreaders - then they could infect a lot of people

Gulp. Says in a tiny voice.. there are quite a lot of adults at secondary school. One superspreader could take out the entire staff in a secondary.

@NeurotrashWarrior

What no one in the NE can work out is whether things just got better for us or not.

We couldn't mix with anyone, now we seem to be able to meet in outside spaces up to 6.

Yet the bbc rules website says no different.

V confusing.

Sorry for double post.

... May sound overkill, but EMail your MP ? They usually respond pretty well to queries and they get prompt answers from civil servants