Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Again, early days but this is the city wide infection chart ( obviously lag will have an impact but the average peak is October 4th)

I’m all for local input.

But it feels confusing atm. Hopefully will be clarified.

Also wondering where London will sit.

Did he say something about changing NHS app covert alert levels too? They're currently low, medium, high so don't match to his medium, high, very high ratings.

50 deaths is very high for a Monday. It's the highest Monday since 8th June when they still counted for 60 days.
(50, 19, 13, 11, 9, 3, 2, 4, 3, 21, 9 ,7, 12, 11, 16, 25, 15, 38, 55, Mondays going backwards from today through to 8th June)

@Hmmph

So ridiculously confusing!

It should be clear and objective, not MPs and councils bargaining.

It should be x cases per 100,000 per council for a 7 day period, tier 2 and x for level 3. In level 1, restrictions mean xyz etc. 7 days in the tier up or down you change. Weekly list of tiers by council will be announced on Friday at 6pm. NHS app will also give you the tier of restrictions and details.

Why are they making it so hard, so subjective and so political!

Be like this thread and use data and analysis!

100% agree!

@Baaaahhhhh

We need a coherent joined up national approach. Local input, yes, but the approach should be a national one

Disagree. Local decisions should be made locally, within a government framework. Local accountability. Same with schools (gulp).

Doesn't really help when NHS Trusts don't match council boundaries.

@RedToothBrush
Good point! The different boundaries just add to the confusion and lack of clarity.

That makes it all the more important to adopt a national approach. That's what we need (and strong leadership...)

The boundaries are utterly artificial my local hospital and one of the local secondary schools serve people from North and West Yorkshire and Lancashire and have done for 40 yrs. I work at a residential home were I live which is under Bradford council local lockdown and staffed by people living in different councils with different degrees of lockdown. The local fb was full of anger that we were included in the lockdown at all whilst conveniently ignoring how many people commute into Leeds and Bradford to work or shop .
I'm sure this is replicated across the country. I don't have an answer though

Sounds like Liverpool agreed to govt proposals Liverpool mayor on BBC said he object to what Johnson said, he said they agreed to some of it not all of it, I think it was mainly the financial support they didn't agree with but someone came to the door so I lost some of it.

Doesn't really help when NHS Trusts don't match council boundaries

That doesn't matter. You can go to any hospital for treatment in or out of your "area". Even as an emergency you will go to the best suitable treatment centre, which may or may not be your local or nearest hospital.

BCF - "Please make your own school threads, or join the thousands of existing ones. Why on earth spoil these ones ?"

I lurk and post very occasionally.
Just to add my voice to the plea to keep school discussions off here.
I realise it's MN and many people have school age children but the discussions go in circles, positions are entrenched and the thread fills up with pages of repetition. I try to skip all the school speculation but it's hard.

Have I got this right, that in tier 3, gyms and leisure centres have to close, but restaurants serving drink and pubs operating as restaurants can stay open till 10pm?

Here are the official lists

@Frazzled2207 does that mean Leicester is back to just national restrictions and not any kind of enhanced restriction status??

Those lists were on Twitter but fairly sure wrong because Lancashire not on.

Im south so dont know the areas. Surely that isnt much change!?

@FatGirlShrinking
Sorry they came up in the wrong order Leicester is now tier 2

I think it was mainly the financial support they didn't agree with

That’s correct. He was on LBC saying the same thing. It’s not that surprising considering the analysis we’ve seen posted on here that they support the tier 3 measures for Liverpool. But closing hospitality without proper compensation for those employed is a serious concern. Those working in hospitality are generally low paid and won’t have wiggle room in the form of savings that can be made. There are chunks of the city and surrounding areas who will fit perfectly in to what the WHO were talking about wrt lockdowns making the poor even poorer.

Can't see Nottinghamshire?

@PineappleUpsideDownCake

Im south so dont know the areas. Surely that isnt much change!?

If those lists are real, one change is Middlesbrough and Hartlepool have been left off the NE restrictions (they'd only been added belatedly a few weeks ago).

@TwentyViginti
Notts is def there as is notts city- tier two

@ScaramoucheFandango

Knowsley isn't students. Maybe that was the thinking: where the high numbers are considered to include a significant student "bulge" you escape tier 3.

I wonder if this is how Nottingham has escaped tier 3 despite having the highest rate per 100k.

@RedToothBrush
I meant more surprised that Nottingham was only tier 2 rather than 3

Thanks @ChloeCrocodile I thought that was what I heard.

@Grausse the only posts that are coming up on schools that I can see are people saying, "Don't post about schools."

Is it like Basil Fawlty and "Don't mention the war."

If those lists are real, one change is Middlesbrough and Hartlepool have been left off the NE restrictions (they'd only been added belatedly a few weeks ago).

Hartlepool was not looking great at all last week. It should be in restrictions. Although the council is in a state of denial about the very existence of covid.

Re Nottingham - 3/4 of cases are in 18 - 24 year old group so i think the hope is they can get control of the situation quickly.