Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Did I hear something about the tier being decided by hospital capacity? Might explain why Nottingham is only tier 2 as the QMC is a very large teaching hospital so maybe has spare capacity despite high cases, especially if cases are mainly in low age bracket therefore not resulting in hospital admission.

@Baaaahhhhh

Doesn't really help when NHS Trusts don't match council boundaries

That doesn't matter. You can go to any hospital for treatment in or out of your "area". Even as an emergency you will go to the best suitable treatment centre, which may or may not be your local or nearest hospital.

You have the bizarre situation of all Halton covid patients all sent to Warrington and included in the hospital admissons but the case registered to Halton council as only Warrington is taking covid cases for the trust with the idea being that Halton carries out all other treatment and is covid free.

If the issue is about strategic planning for hospitals being done locally only by regional authorities then this makes no sense.

Is anyone else concerned that it’ll be too late for an area before they move up to the next level tier? Surely we should be proactive on this, especially whilst R is above 1. Wouldn’t it be better to try to control things earlier by increasing the tier at the start of a big uptick rather than waiting for things to get really bad before raising to the next level. What am I missing?!

@Reastie nothing! Apart from the will of some of the uninformed public and ditto story MPs/possibly Cabinet members!

My personal school data:

Local area cases per 100,000 = 184

Cases in my school = 16 (of which the local paper has reported 4)

Cases per 100,000 for school (approx) = 800 per 100,000

You would expect to see 4 cases in a school my size.

The probability of having 16 or more cases in a school of my size if the infection rate in my school is the same as the infection rate in the local area is 0.000 001 673 based on p(x>15) B(2000, 0.00183)

Obviously each case is not independent of the others, so a binomial distribution isn't particularly appropriate but I wanted to show that cases in my area are definitely not just "reflecting community spread" - proving a lack of independence between cases is pretty much the point, really.

Apologies for posting this, I have tried to make it as data rich as possible!

@Nellodee could you explain that a little more for the non-Mathematicians on here? (Presuming this qualifies as an example of school data..)

Does anyone know what the rough rate per 100,000 was at the point of the March lockdown? Especially in areas badly hit like London. I’m interested to compare it to how areas are now fairing and if anywhere is currently close to, at, or surpassing that level.

@Augustbreeze it’s worrying when you can see things but the people that have power refuse to.

Nellodee it sounds interesting but not sure how to counterbalance with email from HT saying no cases in school in area of 60 per 100

@Reastie

Is anyone else concerned that it’ll be too late for an area before they move up to the next level tier? Surely we should be proactive on this, especially whilst R is above 1. Wouldn’t it be better to try to control things earlier by increasing the tier at the start of a big uptick rather than waiting for things to get really bad before raising to the next level. What am I missing?!

You're missing that the UK has opted to aim for world beating incompetence.

What the government is missing is foresight.

Nellodee Excellent data and analysis (if worrying).

Do you know of any way to connect with other teachers and compile similar data for a number of schools?

@Frazzled2207 Birmingham and Solihull also not on that list and they've been under restrictions for a while

@Reastie

Is anyone else concerned that it’ll be too late for an area before they move up to the next level tier? Surely we should be proactive on this, especially whilst R is above 1. Wouldn’t it be better to try to control things earlier by increasing the tier at the start of a big uptick rather than waiting for things to get really bad before raising to the next level. What am I missing?!

Yes. There are places where numbers are going up very fast. I understand prevalence is relevant and speed of increase can't be looked at without taking that into account too, or without assessing where cases are (distributed vs or localised in particular workplaces or universities), but I'm concerned that being in Tier 1 will be taken by lots of people as a sign they can relax.

I'd like to see some kind of status within tiers to indicate current trajectory, to give local people some warning if their area is heading quite fast towards the next one up, well before they get there.

This gov is not only missing foresight, but the minimum number of brain cells as well. I don't think they have more than 2 inbetween the whole lot.

@MarshaBradyo what is the size of your school?

@Nellodee
Why has the local paper misreported?
It sounds very irresponsible.

@Nellodee is that a secondary school?

Can u say what age range the 16 cases are? An even split? Seeing as the data given by van tam
This morning saying it's being driven by 16+

[quote IloveJKRowling]@MarshaBradyo what is the size of your school?[/quote]
It’s pretty big secondary in London. I just re-read the email as it is surprising actually. And it does say no Covid positive cases. Although a few have had symptoms then negative tests.

not sure how to counterbalance with email from HT saying no cases in school in area of 60 per 100

So no cases doesn't really mean much in this instance unless your school has 1666.666667 pupils or more (let's say 1666).

You'd expect 1 case per 1666 pupils if infections in school tracking community infection at a rate of 60 /100k

Okay - so if you have 183 cases per 100,000, then each person has a probability of 0.001 83 chance of having Covid.

The probability of not having Covid is 0.99817

You can work out the probability of no-one having Covid - it's 0.99817 to the power of 2000. That would be 0.03, or 3%. Quite unlikely, but not impossible.

The probability of having 1 case would be a bit more, 2 a bit more, 3 a bit more still and the probability of having 4 cases would be most probable at 0.19 or 19%

By the time you get to 8 cases, you're back down to 2%.

At 16 cases, you're up to 0.000 001 23

But you also have a tiny amount of probability that could be 17 cases, 18 cases, and more, and we want to work out how probable it was to have this many cases or more, really.

So, you add up all the probabilities up to 16 (1,2,3,4 cases etc), and then take this away from 1. That gives you the probability of having "at least 16 cases" and it's tiny.

You would expect to see 4 cases in a school my size.

How big is the school?

I was just going to ask you that about your example, Marsha. Mine is 2000, roughly.

@IloveJKRowling

not sure how to counterbalance with email from HT saying no cases in school in area of 60 per 100

So no cases doesn't really mean much in this instance unless your school has 1666.666667 pupils or more (let's say 1666).

You'd expect 1 case per 1666 pupils if infections in school tracking community infection at a rate of 60 /100k

It’s not above community transmission though.

@Nellodee

I was just going to ask you that about your example, Marsha. Mine is 2000, roughly.

240 per year group apparently - just looked it up. So not quite as big

From gov website - full details of restrictions and tiers
www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-announces-new-local-covid-alert-levels

GS has 3 cases in his school, year 8 and year 12. School approximately 1000, just under in fact. Rate in the area he lives if 40 per 100,000. Other GS has had a year group sent home but he doesn't know how many positive.