Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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Equally the fact that Warrington 'escapes' Liverpool City Region's fate will not be seen well by those in the Wirral who have much lower rates than Warrington.

I can certainly confirm (as a Wirral resident) that it is really frustrating!

I watched it live. Boris specifically said that tier 2 allows mixing outdoors in public places and private gardens under the rule of 6

@ceeveebee
Indeed that is a loosening of rules for us in gm.
Weather not exactly conducive to chats in gardens but perhaps that is the reason it’s deemed to be ok now.

Tier 2 = everywhere currently under local restrictions, plus Cheshire East and West, Nottinghamshire and part of the Peak District

Tier 3 = only the Liverpool City Region (as already known)

@ceeveebee yes which I think is more than what restrictions in Manchester/Bolton/Birmingham allow now? Which is no mixing in gardens

I think family I have living in Birmingham said they couldn't mix in outdoor public spaces either (may be wrong about that!)

Loosening on private gardens, tightening inside pubs and restaurants (and all other indoor settings)

The UK-wide rule of 6 did apply outdoors, so bit odd (but probably realistic) that it may not for a tier-2 place

Paul Brand @PaulBrandITV
Only one MP for Sunderland was invited to the call. She had to inform the government that there are actually three MPs for Sunderland, apparently to some surprise.

@ceeveebee

I watched it live. Boris specifically said that tier 2 allows mixing outdoors in public places and private gardens under the rule of 6

Did he check he got it right this time first?

Got that wrong. Birmingham could meet in parks. Not in gardens though

Just checking that restrictions about no socialising in gardens which were introduced to many places earlier when infection rates were lower are now lifted after infection rates have risen and rule of six now applies

Have I got that right?

I would hope even Boris would be capable of reading out a scripted statement without messing it up!

Medium / high / very high and nowhere is low

reasonable as there is likely risk of rising / spreading in those areas with 7-day incidence < 20 /100,000 and even < 10 / 100,000

• but maybe difficult to explain to some in the SW and SE with v low levels

@RedToothBrush

Just checking that restrictions about no socialising in gardens which were introduced to many places earlier when infection rates were lower are now lifted after infection rates have risen and rule of six now applies

Have I got that right?

... I wondered at that, but it seems so

It looks like the government are aiming to simplify rules across the country, reduce anomolies,
reduce the different sets of rules to only 3,
hence maybe reducing public confusion and increasing compliance ?

@wintertravel1980

But it IS spreading in schools.

I love a good school discussion but the problem with this topic on this particular thread is that we keep going around in circles.

What we do not know is how many people are impacted by each outbreak in educational settings. According to the lSAGE documents (which I have referenced and copied/pasted here at least four times so I am not doing it again) up until the end of June a typical outbreak in educational settings included two members of staff and no children. The only outlier case was the nursery outbreak in Milton Keyes.

Of course, the schools have now gone back full-time and the circumstances might have changed. I am sure SAGE updates at some point will include the latest info on spread in schools. However for now there is not enough data to suggest that school outbreaks are driving the transmission.

We also don't know how many are impacted by the 30 outbreaks in food outlets / restaurants last week (compared to the 325 in educational settings)... yet pretty big changes are being made which will massively impact the food and drink sector.

Is it really fair or proportionate given the small number of outbreaks linked to food outlets and restaurants?

@RedToothBrush

Just checking that restrictions about no socialising in gardens which were introduced to many places earlier when infection rates were lower are now lifted after infection rates have risen and rule of six now applies

Have I got that right?

Yep!

So I could daytrip a v long drive to my in laws who have been in a restriction area for a while and now sit in their garden which we haven't been able to do.... even though their cases have been going dramatically upwards (but I expect not allowed to use their loo!)

13972 today, 65 deaths

There will presumably be a govt document published tonight / tomorrow detailling all this,
so if BJ didn't read his lines properly, this will be corrected

I'm m probably missing something here but I thought he said, apart from Liverpool, the govt was still in talks with local authorities and that it hadnt been decided which tier the other high case areas will be in? That those areas would be announced tomorrow

Looks that way. Is it the right thing to do though? Cases are rising yet measures here (NE) sound like they're going to be back to what they were prior to our restrictions.

Having had to collect my youngest today from nursery due to 'close contact with a confirmed COVID case', I can now no longer say our schools are unaffected.
Unfortunately due to him only being 3 and unable to leave him alone, I can not get his brother to school. So that's another DC affected by it too.
I don't believe 'relaxing' measures, even if it is to make the 'rules' easy to understand, is the correct thing to do right now.

UK today
(yesterday, then previous days are in brackets)

Cases 13,972 (12,872, 15,166, 13,864)
Deaths 65 ... (65, 81, 87)

Yes because we still have no clarity how areas move between tiers. And no one in parliament has asked him this obvious question!!

It needed to all be black and white. I'm not a fan at all of this bartering with local politicians approach which is what has happened. Because it's only going to cause areas being treated differently

What a joke.... a West Midlands mp has just argued the West Midlands should be level 1!!! Errr Solihull is West Midlands!! They are just trying to be poplar with the voters and not thinking about the big picture!

@Flaxmeadow

I'm m probably missing something here but I thought he said, apart from Liverpool, the govt was still in talks with local authorities and that it hadnt been decided which tier the other high case areas will be in? That those areas would be announced tomorrow

.... Sounds like Liverpool agreed to govt proposals but other areas are still negotiating, maybe not in agreement with e.g. being in tier 3 and closing bars etc and / or wanting more financial support

MP askes why Halton is in Tier 3 with a number of lower cases than other places which are not. Johnson doesn't answer the question.

I'm baffled.

Totally baffled.