Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Seems a bit pointless having PM make announcements that everyone already knows. Still I suppose he has to be seen to be doing something.

3/4 of cases in 18 - 24 age group in Nottingham (source BBC News).

Restrictions look likely in both Nottingham City and Nottinghamshire Councils.

Local MP tweeting that they will both be going into Tier 2.

3.30 is when the PM is scheduled to speak to the Commons

@ancientgran
Wales have done this, basically singling out the cities of Bangor and Llanelli for lockdown but not (yet) the counties they are in. England have not done this yet. Leicester city is the only example of them locking down a single town but it was its own authority. That said I believe they also put a lockdown on a specific area of Leicstershire county too - might be wrong.

But anyway suspect if will be at the very least local authority level. And perhaps in places like London and GM they will all go together. Already the case in Liverpool City Region despite the fact that Wirral has significantly less cases I think.

@ancientgran yes.... but the rest of the country still needs to know where they are going to be placed

Tbh I had expected my Home Counties area to be tier 2. But now Manchester/ Nottingham is tier 2 we must be tier 1....

Finer details also of how u move and and out of tiers need to be announced

@RedToothBrush

I hope its sloppy journalism at this stage!

Also, if there is a legal ban on mixing indoors in any setting, that is a tightening compared to current Greater Manchester restrictions (where it is only illegal to mix indoors in private dwellings at the moment, you can currently legally go into bars and restaurants with other households although not advised)

"Warrington is not in Merseyside" 🤦🏻‍♀️

It is to be expected that some of the general public living elsewhere don't know this,
but I had a naive hope that those running the country did

North of Watford = Here Be Dragons

Woolyback dragons in this case.

"Finer details also of how u move and and out of tiers need to be announced"

Are there traffic lights specified yet with conditions like 7-day incidence, the % free beds in hospital & ICU etc ?

The top 25 councils as of data published yesterday. Liverpool City Region in bold:

Nottingham 830.0 (2763), 314.5 (1047)
Knowsley 669.5 (1010), 485.9 (733)
Liverpool 598.5 (2981), 504.4 (2512)
Newcastle upon Tyne 509.5 (1543), 420.1 (1272)
Burnley 503.8 (448), 445.3 (396)
Manchester 477.7 (2641), 530.5 (2933)
Sheffield 439.3 (2569), 263.0 (1538)
Sefton 418.6 (1157), 314.7 (870)
West Lancashire 398.1 (455), 217.8 (249)
St Helens 387.6 (700), 323.4 (584)
Halton 381.7 (494), 309.1 (400)
Leeds 380.9 (3021), 299.8 (2378)
Exeter 380.5 (500), 229.8 (302)
Rochdale 380.4 (846), 271.1 (603)
Pendle 371.3 (342), 297.5 (274)
Oldham 361.4 (857), 249.3 (591)
Salford 357.0 (924), 280.1 (725)
Blackburn with Darwen 355.4 (532), 208.4 (312)
Wigan 346.3 (1138), 211.2 (694)
Hyndburn 333.2 (270), 269.0 (218)
Preston 332.6 (476), 296.9 (425)
Bury 330.4 (631), 270.2 (516)
Trafford 318.5 (756), 217.0 (515)
Warrington 318.1 (668), 209.0 (439)
Tameside 295.8 (670), 205.3 (465)

Wirral doesn't make the list.

7pm now for Boris it seems, although details presumably in the statement now?

@BigChocFrenzy no one knows any details that I've heard. It's all scrambling messages of the problem areas and if they've manage to stay out of tier 3 (which is grating me. They really are missing the point of the big picture)

No details confirmed or what any of it actually means

On tiered lockdowns.

Guardian is now saying London is likely to be in Tier 1 (the lowest level).

I expected us to be in Tier 2. I am wondering if they have found more students included in the London numbers but currently based elsewhere.

@wintertravel1980 it's all conjecture as other outlets are reporting London is tier 2

@BigChocFrenzy

"Finer details also of how u move and and out of tiers need to be announced"

Are there traffic lights specified yet with conditions like 7-day incidence, the % free beds in hospital & ICU etc ?

This is what is needed more than anything. As well as the criteria for being on the shit list.

North West Geography for the uninitiated.

Warrington. The place where they spent the summer wanting to keep the Mancs out. The autumn wanting to keep the Scousers out. New Year will probably be keeping the Fox Hunters, Farmers and Housewives out.

but the rest of the country still needs to know where they are going to be placed Oh I suppose not all MPs are in on the talks.

Here he goes.

Whats on his blazer? Left side as you view it. Hair!?

He is losing his hair isn't he, alot more scalp showing than 12 months ago, so probably hair.

You'd think someone would brush it off before he goes onntv.

What an over-reaction; Warrington is next to Merseyside and has very high infection rates, it isn't down in Cornwall. Obviously they should have MP details listed more clearly, but I don't think it's entertaining for an MP to be posting about county lines for the infinitesimally small political capital rather than focusing on how to help reduce infections in their constituency. They'll be quick enough to want to share resources across county lines when there's an issue.

People confuse boundaries between London and Surrey, Essex, Kent etc all the time, it's just not an issue.

www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/
How are cities and large towns recovering from Coronavirus?

As the lockdown in response to the Coronavirus pandemic varies across the country, Centre for Cities tracks the recovery of high streets in Britain's cities and large towns.

Top Footfall (as percentage of pre-lockdown levels)

Basildon 132
Chatham 129
Birkenhead 123
Blackpool 116
Burnley 112
Doncaster 108
Telford 107
Southend 105
Wigan 103
Bournemouth

Bottom 10
London 35
Manchester 51
Cardiff 51
Birmingham 55
Oxford 55
Liverpool 59
Edinburgh 60
Leeds 61
Glasgow 62
Newcastle 65

(for reference last month those above 100 in order of most recovery were: Blackpool, Bournemouth, Birkenhead, Southend, Chatham, Burnley, Basildon, Doncaster, Portsmouth, Telford, Sunderland, Warrington, Wigan and Hull).

I am really looking forward to interpretation of what he has just said!

@MRex

What an over-reaction; Warrington is next to Merseyside and has very high infection rates, it isn't down in Cornwall. Obviously they should have MP details listed more clearly, but I don't think it's entertaining for an MP to be posting about county lines for the infinitesimally small political capital rather than focusing on how to help reduce infections in their constituency. They'll be quick enough to want to share resources across county lines when there's an issue.

People confuse boundaries between London and Surrey, Essex, Kent etc all the time, it's just not an issue.

It is if you are making massive decisions that wipe out your business or make you loose your job, just because someone in government doesn't know your location.

Equally the fact that Warrington 'escapes' Liverpool City Region's fate will not be seen well by those in the Wirral who have much lower rates than Warrington.

This is why being political driven rather than data driven is problematic.

So I do argue its pretty important to those on both sides of the Tier 3 border and not 'an over reaction'.

Nick Eardley @nickeardleybbc
PM on tiers in England:

Medium = current national measures (curfew, rule of six)
High = Prevent all social mixing between households indoors, rule of 6 outdoors
V high = Base line prohibiting social mixing indoors, closing bars and pubs

So Tier 2 isn't clear about rule of six and gardens