Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@RedToothBrush - it’s also because the right to property is a protected right and therefore closing someone’s business requires extensive safeguards.

I agree that it would need parliamentary time which is in extremely short supply ( because of both corona and Brexit)

I think Burnham is trying to hold out for more devolved management of Covid ( and the funds to match) as well as appropriate support for businesses.
To be fair I think he has a point as many people here have lost confidence in central government management and would be more willing to listen and comply with local decisions.

LBC announced earlier London is believed to be put under tier 2 measures later.

Does anyone know if the tier system will be on smaller local council basis or more county wide? In my smallish town the district has seen measures more than triple in a week and other surrounding areas are climbing but not yet on the same level. I’m wondering if my local district would be in a different tier potentially to the next town along or if it’s on a wider area basis.

@EducatingArti

I think Burnham is trying to hold out for more devolved management of Covid ( and the funds to match) as well as appropriate support for businesses. To be fair I think he has a point as many people here have lost confidence in central government management and would be more willing to listen and comply with local decisions.

He does when local authorities in Manchester have had to take over track and trace because Dido's systems is so terrible.

The NW Tories are definitely not singing off the same song sheet as London either. Which only is aggrievating the North South divide feeling.

I do think it will be interesting to see which way Warrington goes too in terms of devolution. Its not Liverpool City and its been the regional leaders who have been fighting the cause in London. So its not been represented. There is an ongoing battle over a regional status between Warrington, Chester and other Cheshire towns and getting a local mayor. Warrington Councillors have been really opposed to it, wanting to keep their independence. This might be the thing that shafts them because not being part of a larger grouping might mean its not listened to / ignored / generally overlooked. (I think this is part of an ongoing theme about political self determination and visibility).

I know this is slightly off topic, but I think its important in terms of understanding where data is being missed and why government isn't keeping to data as a driver of decisions. Personalities, political experience and political influence matter.

With reference to Burnham in particular, he is definitely much more politically astitude than Anderson. He asks the right questions - its important to note his experience as a former Health Minister here too. I think he has a better appreciation of Westminster having worked there at high level and a better understanding of how to talk the talk. Simply understanding which health questions and data is most important and needs to be asked - having been in change when Swine Flu was potentially a threat - to pitch to Hancock is probably a really good asset for Manchester over Liverpool too.

@sirfredfredgeorge. Thank you!

Sorry all, the LA positivity rates I posted towards the end of the last thread are from the horse’s mouth, although the horse is in a bolted stable . No link therefore. Mixing metaphors the data iceberg is less than helpful.

It is difficult to put small adjacent areas under different rules because people live and work and go to school across boundaries as we have seen in Greater Manchester but I'm thinking counties could be subdivided, especially larger ones.

@Reastie

LBC announced earlier London is believed to be put under tier 2 measures later.

Does anyone know if the tier system will be on smaller local council basis or more county wide? In my smallish town the district has seen measures more than triple in a week and other surrounding areas are climbing but not yet on the same level. I’m wondering if my local district would be in a different tier potentially to the next town along or if it’s on a wider area basis.

It will be council level.

So it depends on whether the town next to you is in the same county or not.

This is for easy administration. Its much harder to do if you break down by ward level because less people know what ward they are in but everyone should know what council they live in for taxation / access to benefit purposes if nothing else.

Watching the briefing:

The NHS guy on VT's right said "the government" had worked hard to get enough PPE ... for 4 months

Nit-picking, but it grated

• I wish he had stayed scrupulously neutral and just said "we" or that the NHS now has 4 months supplies

Political neutrality and objectivity are so important for experts, especially for those in key public service roles

@EducatingArti

It is difficult to put small adjacent areas under different rules because people live and work and go to school across boundaries as we have seen in Greater Manchester but I'm thinking counties could be subdivided, especially larger ones.

Won't happen.

Too complicated. Complexity and confusion has been a major criticism over the last few months.

www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/18788242.warrington-deserves-exit-plan-placed-tier-two-restrictions---mp/
Warrington deserves ‘exit plan’ after being placed in tier two restrictions – MP

So it LOOKS like Warrington have been confirmed as Tier 2.

That makes things even more interesting. Figures for Warrington went up at same time as Knowsley and St Helens and aren't a huge lot lower than them and Halton. Its been under the same statute as Liverpool so far.

Lancashire tier 2

The MEN is reporting Tier 2 means you are allowed to meet in gardens within the rule of 6 - so in effect an easing of current restrictions!!!!

14:37
Everything you can and can't do when Greater Manchester goes into tier 2 lockdown

The official explanation of the new restrictions hasn’t been released yet, but it’s expected that by and large the measures currently in place for our region will remain.

That means pubs, restaurants and takeaways will stay open, but have to close at 10pm.

Gyms, sports centres, hairdressers and cinemas can also carry on operating.

The ban on having guests in homes is likely to remain in place, but it is expected people will be allowed to meet up in private gardens once again, as long as the rule of six - no more than six people permitted to gather together - is followed.

And Oldham, which has long been under slightly stricter measures than the rest of Greater Manchester, will finally be brought back in line with the rest of the region, according to the town’s MP Jim McMahon.

Read the full story here.
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/what-could-coronavirus-tier-1-19088687

If that turns out to be the case, I will be lost for words!

It's like Leicester then, they're trialling something different in Tier 3, so everyone except Liverpool gets off with a warning, then see how fast Liverpool can come down with everything thrown at it.

@RedToothBrush

The MEN is reporting Tier 2 means you are allowed to meet in gardens within the rule of 6 - so in effect an easing of current restrictions!!!!

14:37
Everything you can and can't do when Greater Manchester goes into tier 2 lockdown

The official explanation of the new restrictions hasn’t been released yet, but it’s expected that by and large the measures currently in place for our region will remain.

That means pubs, restaurants and takeaways will stay open, but have to close at 10pm.

Gyms, sports centres, hairdressers and cinemas can also carry on operating.

The ban on having guests in homes is likely to remain in place, but it is expected people will be allowed to meet up in private gardens once again, as long as the rule of six - no more than six people permitted to gather together - is followed.

And Oldham, which has long been under slightly stricter measures than the rest of Greater Manchester, will finally be brought back in line with the rest of the region, according to the town’s MP Jim McMahon.

Read the full story here.
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/what-could-coronavirus-tier-1-19088687

If that turns out to be the case, I will be lost for words!

I know. Much as I don't want to be in tier 3, this just seems a bit daft!

I agree with the GM group that the University cases are genuinely a different set requiring different measures than measures to manage standard community spread. Whether it actually can be effectively controlled is a different matter.

Geography for dummies.

This is the MP for Warrington North:

Charlotte Nichols @charlotte2153
Don't know how many times we have to go through this: Warrington is not in Merseyside, it is not in the Liverpool City Region, it never has been and if you're going to make decisions that affect us the very least you could do is recognise that fact
Face with symbols over mouth

@RedToothBrush like rearranging deckchairs on the titanic if they do that

The problem with only keeping things at county council level means that eg rates in a city like Gloucester could mean that severe restrictions are imposed on a tiny hamlet in the Cotswolds with zero cases. I guess it is a difficult circle to square.

@RedToothBrush

The MEN is reporting Tier 2 means you are allowed to meet in gardens within the rule of 6 - so in effect an easing of current restrictions!!!!

14:37
Everything you can and can't do when Greater Manchester goes into tier 2 lockdown

The official explanation of the new restrictions hasn’t been released yet, but it’s expected that by and large the measures currently in place for our region will remain.

That means pubs, restaurants and takeaways will stay open, but have to close at 10pm.

Gyms, sports centres, hairdressers and cinemas can also carry on operating.

The ban on having guests in homes is likely to remain in place, but it is expected people will be allowed to meet up in private gardens once again, as long as the rule of six - no more than six people permitted to gather together - is followed.

And Oldham, which has long been under slightly stricter measures than the rest of Greater Manchester, will finally be brought back in line with the rest of the region, according to the town’s MP Jim McMahon.

Read the full story here.
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/what-could-coronavirus-tier-1-19088687

If that turns out to be the case, I will be lost for words!

That may just be MEN’s usual sloppiness and May not be the case in the final guidance - IIRC when indoor mixing was first restricted for GM at end of July, they only referred to “indoors” in the tweet and TV interviews, but then when the guidance and legislation came it defined it included gardens too

EducatingArti I was thinking the same about Devon, places with very low rates getting the same restrictions as Exeter seems crazy. I wonder if it could be done at district level rather than county although thinking about it lots of people in those little places commute into the city.

Have I missed Boris and his speech to parliament, people seem to know what exactly is happening so I wonder is that from his speech or has everything already been announced before his speech?

I hope its sloppy journalism at this stage!

I know newspapers are reporting it but where are they getting it from?

@ancientgran

I know newspapers are reporting it but where are they getting it from?

The MPs who are briefing them from what they have been told in the Zoom meetings with Hancock.

@ancientgran

I know newspapers are reporting it but where are they getting it from?

Andy Burnham has just been interviewed on the BBC. Very proudly stating that they had persuaded government that Manchester would only be in tier 2 as THEY weren't convinced it was driven by pubs.

Rubbish journalism didn't then go on to ask him, where then does HE think the cases are coming from

#missingthepointentirely 🙄