Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@MarshaBradyo
That is the main reason I think plus the fact that there's little evidence of transmission in hospitality. I'm on the fence a bit here - as some pubs/bars in GM have definitely been absolutely rammed at times and IMO unsafe. Others seem to be keeping strict limits on numbers. I find it hard to believe that pubs and bars haven't been a contributing factor, albeit not a necessarily big one. But obviously wrong to close if they're not going to help these businesses.
Just wondering what they're going to do though because although the numbers might be flattening up a bit, there's been no sign of going down and we've had restrictions since July.

Latest on Lancashire that I could find

My town in the SE has had its cases per 100k more than double in a week and it is now at >50. It's really speeding up. Is there any easy place to look up how long ago other towns went over the same boundary? (For my area I'm looking back at littleowl's Covid Messenger emails.)

PS A poster's opinion I disagree with about schools by itself is just an opinion. It's not a debate until I jump in and try to 'put the issue to bed' in a way that I think will make the poster see the light and never post that opinion again. I get why people want to do that in this thread, because they're afraid of the type of school-related heated debate from other threads coming here, but I think that attempt to clamp down particularly on schools discussion is part of the problem, not the solution. If people (from every side) could generally let opinions included in data-related posts about transmission in schools that they disagree with just go past (the way they let opinions about care homes, or particular cities, or pubs, or anything else go past), rather than trying to respond in ways that they think will stop debate but that actually stoke it, then those posts might not stand out as much.

@Frazzled2207

Gm confirmed to be in tier 2 apparently. I suspect the government wanted us to be tier 3 but couldn't come to an agreement with andy burnham. I really hope this all becomes clear later.

The evidence for closures just isn't there tbh.

It was reported earlier that GM asked the government for data that they could demostrate that pubs and restuarants were contributing to the problem and they couldn't produce it.

I don't know if there is a difference on this for Liverpool - Liverpool have been asking for more powers / restrictions although they don't like the lack of financial support for whats proposed.

The problem does seem to be more acute in Liverpool and I think the last of nearby alternative hospitals to share the burden means Liverpool has less wiggle room.

But I still don't think the restrictions are going to solve the problem, especially if enforcement continues to be none existent. You have to win the public's support and I really don't think saying 'You scousers are in lockdown whilst your manc neighbours can still go on the piss' is really going to encourage voluntary compliance. Which is how it will be interpreted in a lot of quarters.

I know both Liverpool and Manchester well and the cultural nuances in attitude. Tier 3 for Liverpool only is going to go down like a cup of cold sick.

The main headline on the Echo website is already:
www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/news-opinion/liverpool-lockdown-back-the-1980s-19089556
Sending Liverpool back to the 1980s is no way to manage this crisis

Sweeping changes which could last months have seemingly been drawn up without meaningful input from those they will affect most

(I should point out how influential The Echo is in Liverpool - to a degree thats not the same elsewhere - in part because of the ongoing local boycotting of The Sun. Views are much less right wing influenced compared with even a few miles down the road.)

If people (from every side) could generally let opinions included in data-related posts about transmission in schools that they disagree with just go past (the way they let opinions about care homes, or particular cities, or pubs, or anything else go past), rather than trying to respond in ways that they think will stop debate but that actually stoke it, then those posts might not stand out as much. Couldn't agree more.

@Quarantino
MRex
@Quarantino- they are in the weekly surveillance data file published each Friday:www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports.
Test totals are only updated on weekdays, presumably that's why aligning cases and tests takes juggling and is only reported weekly. And it might be a delayed percentage to allow for test result lags. I'm not sure.

Agh thread is moving too fast. In the last thread,*@boys3posted a screenshot of a chart of all local authorities and their test positivity rate. From a quick browse on my phone i can't see that in the first two reports linked. Sorry if I'm being blind!

That's because it's the 4th one down haha, the report has multiple files each week! Try this, otherwise look for the Excel file "National flu and COVID-19 surveillance data report: 8 October 2020 (week 41)": assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925095/Weekly_Influenza_and_COVID19_report_data_w41.xlsx

Yay thanks MRex ! I looked at the first two! That's great, although a terribly depressing read as it shows a massive increase over the last couple of weeks near me

Oh no, I posted too soon - I was looking at LA case rates not +ve rates... I think regional will have to suffice for now.

This last minute bartering is really frustrating. Why couldn’t they come up with a set of guidelines a few weeks ago which said “when rates are x these are the measures, when y these are the measures” like New Zealand and Ireland. It makes it so much more comprehensible and less personal. And less open to lobbying by Wetherspoons!

[quote Frazzled2207]@MarshaBradyo
That is the main reason I think plus the fact that there's little evidence of transmission in hospitality. I'm on the fence a bit here - as some pubs/bars in GM have definitely been absolutely rammed at times and IMO unsafe. Others seem to be keeping strict limits on numbers. I find it hard to believe that pubs and bars haven't been a contributing factor, albeit not a necessarily big one. But obviously wrong to close if they're not going to help these businesses.
Just wondering what they're going to do though because although the numbers might be flattening up a bit, there's been no sign of going down and we've had restrictions since July.[/quote]
Ancedotely (a crime on this thread I know) the pubs and bars I know by reputation which have had confirmed outbreaks and been forced to close - have all been criticised or were known for slack adherence to covid rules.

The problem is that councils haven't really had the resources to crackdown on this (no money for covid marshalls) and the local police have done fuck all.

One of the requests Burnham made previous was for local authorities to have the power to close premises which we not compiling without having to apply to the Secretary of State to do so - which is a time consuming pain in the backside.

I don't believe this has (yet) been granted to anyone to do.

So local authorities almost have one hand tied behind their back when it comes to bars which are problematic.

Meanwhile there are lots of bars which have been unaffected and have been following the rules yet are being blamed. Even though there are moved to keep restuarants open still.

I know there are problematic restuarants where I live, but they seem like they would escape restrictions if we were tier 3 because they don't rely primarily on alcohol.

The whole thing is nuts and very poorly thought out in terms of how local lockdowns have been impliments and sold to the public since they were first introduced. Thats mainly due to how they have been applied in a way which makes absoluetely no sense to anyone regardless of political persuasion. (As both Graham Brady and Andy Burnham will both agree on I'm sure).

And the heart of this lies around how its been done on the basis of politics rather than science and data.

I waited for whole threads for the non-data school speculation to die down, but it just kept increasing

I finally decided to ask pp to moderate the amount of speculation about schools both because of the continuing PMs I've been getting, complaining about schools taking over
and also because it's becoming a bunfight - that always seems to happen on school threads

Posts that disagree with e.g. the CMO and don't have data to back it up will always invite a response here, whatever the topic

Please make your own school threads, or join the thousands of existing ones
Why on earth spoil these ones ?

@RedToothBrush
very well put. I think I saw something on twitter earlier about GM getting more authority now to shut down non compliant establishments - I really hope that's true.

The whole idea of Wetherspoons being able to stay open just because they serve food is nuts. They're been packed to the rafters.

In better news wales figures are low again 487 (467 yesterday and over 1000 a few days last week)

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

This last minute bartering is really frustrating. Why couldn’t they come up with a set of guidelines a few weeks ago which said “when rates are x these are the measures, when y these are the measures” like New Zealand and Ireland. It makes it so much more comprehensible and less personal. And less open to lobbying by Wetherspoons!

... Politics, party politics, Tory MPs whose constituencies would be hit Pubs and chains that are major political donors

Also the fact that Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 committee - the backbench MPs who can call a vote of confidence in the leader - led objections last month to stricter measures and more govt powers
BJ has to keep him and the 1922 on side:
www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54232375

@RedToothBrush - I’d imagine there is some caution around giving local authorities power to close establishments - partly because despite what they say this is still a centralising government but also partly I guess because there would be some genuine concern with devolving that power without appropriate safeguards ( because it could be misused). Which isn’t to say it shouldn’t be done or couldn’t it’s that I can see why it might take a little time to think through ( which of course the gov could have done during all these months so I’m in no way defending them!).

also regarding the manchester vs liverpool debate it's no coincidence that Liverpool will never have tory MPs and the tory party know that. Manchester has a smattering right now and even my local weasel of a tory mp is actually doing quite a good job of sticking up for local businesses. Graham Brady in Altrincham is another very vocal one. I suspect the mixed political make up in Manchester makes it harder to come to a broad consensus. But good for us in this scenario that tory mps can fight our corner in the way that labour mps cannot.

And then we have to ask why has the north east soared.

Honestly?

We had a few clusters the last couple of weeks of August.

They were mostly linked to younger people and hospitality venues according to the local authority.

Then schools went back, there were definitely more cases coming from them among the whole community staff and pupils, but actually we had some lovely weather at the start of September, especially the bank holiday.

Bars and other places were packed. We all commented on it. I saw huge groups of younger people on the streets late at night. Older Students started returning around then too. People had barbecues.

There was a big last hurrah; I remember meeting others in the park and beach thinking it would be the last time for a while. We went to a bbq at a friend's. Loads of queues outside restaurants in town making the most of the last of the eat out deals.

We get excited by the sun we don't see for so long so we all went out.

I remember feeling so much more relaxed when numbers were so low and enjoying the feeling - I'm sure many others did too.

(Sorry not very data driven but I followed updates by the council and they stated track and trace said it was mostly bars and restaurants at the time.)

If what they say is correct, does that mean young people from Cornwall, where rates are falling, don’t go to University? Obviously they do. I can’t find data for percentage going into tertiary education by county or similar

Data is in this dataset
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/destinations-of-ks4-and-ks5-pupils-2017
not available for 2020 yet, and importantly only for state school, despite knowing that private school is more common in London and has a higher proportion of students going to university. But despite that.

London as a whole, 57,355 and 59% going to university, the South West, 35,720 and 41% going to university. Drilling down to more than that is more complicated - Richmond itself has hardly any state secondary schools (the popular destinations are over the borough boundary such as Tiffin Girls)

But London has more than double the number of students at university than the South West in state schools alone. From private schools, Cornwall has 0-3% of students at private school, Richmond over 12% (from ISC report)

So yes, I think there is a reason to believe it disproportionately impacts Richmond (and other places) compared to cornwall.

Access to higher education by region is also something that should be looked at, and these differences do show I think how the country has many other problems beyond covid, why would a Cornish 18 year old not suit university at the same likelihood has a Richmond one?

Don't local authorities already have powers to close down establishments
e.g. under-age drinking or gambling

Safeguards could include requiring the council to apply to a magistrates court or Crown Court ?

@NeurotrashWarrior - I’m from there so know what you mean about the sun. Also I must admit I went up to see my elderly parent ( stayed in a B and B and met outside as she is so anxious) and I felt so much more relaxed when I was there as opposed to where I live. It definitely felt more ‘normal’

@BigChocFrenzy - yes - the courts are so overwhelmed atm though that that may be a challenge althogh I guess it would be an emergency hearing ( they’ve been toying with Covid courts to try and get through backlogs)

Do we have any information about whether those in the North went to particular holiday destinations that have higher infection rates ?

The RKI for several weeks stated that infections were being driven by returning holidaymakers
Thereafter, they have said that many are cases resulting from spread of some of those earlier infections

Additionally, many German outbreaks stemming from food processing plants
Are there a higher amount of these in North England than elsewhere ?

Actually as an aside the long term impact this will have on the courts isn’t something That is discussed a lot but it will be another huge area impacted with detrimental effects on many people.

@BigChocFrenzy

Don't local authorities already have powers to close down establishments e.g. under-age drinking or gambling

Safeguards could include requiring the council to apply to a magistrates court or Crown Court ?

Not promptly for persistant covid breeches I don't think. I think this route is lengthy and protracted. I think there was a case in Bolton with a problematic persistant offender which highlighted how much of a difficult thing to do it was.

Thats why Burnham asked for specific powers so that immediate intervention could take place. It was in a declaration made jointly by northern leaders that they asked the question directly.

I don't know exactly why there is an issue. Possibly because it has to go via H&S route rather than licensing route.

RedToothBrush That’s a very interesting point about Secretary of State powers being needed to close individual establishments, and possibly one that could be remedied but not quickly. It would require (best guess, IANAL) Parliamentary time which is very tight at the moment. I suspect it can’t just be delegated due to the legal block on double delegation. In the meantime, a data-driven approach to reporting establishments (x number of unannounced inspections showing breaches in y time period?) could perhaps be used - and then batches given daily to the Secretary of State for approval.

Van-Tam Briefing in full

In case anyone missed it, or wants to refresh their memory

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-three-tier-lockdown-boris-johnson-announcement/