Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

3:30 BJ speech in the HoC
(then when will the announcement be to explain what the PM actually meant to say ?)

7pm news briefing
BJ
Sunak (to pay for it)
Whitty

Agreed. Equally there is no data to suggest that they are not. we don't know either way

I cannot agree with it. On balance, there is more data supporting the hypothesis that schools (at least, primary schools) are not driving transmissions up:

1. SAGE analysis of school outbreaks up until the end of the school year suggests schools are not a driver;
2. ONS study indicates positivity in primary school age children is flat while other age groups are increasing;
3. Increased testing of children associated with the start of the school year has not revealed widely spread asymptomatic cases. In fact, children under 10 had the lowest positivity rate across all age categories.

All these 3 considerations might not be entirely conclusive on their own but, when taken together, they in fact seem pretty convincing.

If people still want to believe there are numerous asymptomatic young children falling under the radar, it is their choice but unless they come up with new data to support their hypothesis, we will simply be having the same non-productive conversation again and again.

Latest Liverpool data in.

Coronavirus cases by area
Report published 12th October 2020
Cases data from week 3rd - 9th October 2020

Data extracted covering testing up to 9th October 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 3031, an increase of 377 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 608.6 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 17.3%.

So a drop from over 24% which is was before the weekend.

Between 3rd - 9th October there were 124 registered deaths in Liverpool, of which 22.5% (n=29) were Covid-19 deaths.

This was 20% on Friday.

I think this is now also worth keeping a close eye on...

Richmond

If what they say is correct, does that mean young people from Cornwall, where rates are falling, don’t go to University? Obviously they do. I can’t find data for percentage going into tertiary education by county or similar. But I am sure we’d be seeing cases increasing rapidly everywhere in the county and not in the university towns if this really was a problem. Or are we really claiming that South West London/ North East Surrey is the only place where students come from?

This is making me really cross as it doesn’t make sense, there is no evidence or data (in the public domain) to back it up and it keeps being trotted out as the only reason why cause numbers could possibly be increasing in the South. Because Southerners are so clever they are the only ones who go to Uni and they couldn’t possibly be breaking rules and catching Covid down South like those dirty Northerners.

Slides - Van Tam NHS data briefing

www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-data-briefing-12-october

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/925811/NHSSdatabriefinggslides--12Octoberr2020.pdf

Guardian reporting that NE leaders have been told they will remain Tier 2. For now.

Arj Singh @singharj 3m
I'm told Greater Manchester will be placed in tier 2 of the new local lockdown measures - avoiding pub closures

@BigChocFrenzy

Slides - Van Tam NHS data briefing

www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-data-briefing-12-october

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/925811/NHSSdatabriefinggslides--12Octoberr2020.pdf

.... < curses MN App > Hopefully this link works:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/925811/NHSSdatabriefinggslides--12Octoberr2020.pdf

@sirfredfredgeorge

It is quite saddening that 941 ppl are watching out of 67m population

Where are you getting that number from?

It's the watching now below the title the 38m is the subscribers

Van-Tam slides

MN special symbols in filename itself mean you need to download from here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-data-briefing-12-october

Your pdf links worked this time BCF! I don't get why they sometimes do and sometimes don't, but I'm now used to that feeling!

@pinkpip100

This was the slide I was talking about where is splits under 16s and over 16s

@BigChocFrenzy - as someone else I think posted an interesting question is why numbers didn’t get as low. Particularly if the general consensus is the earlier in the epidemic you lock down the better - and I think some of these areas were at lower levels than day London? Certainly the north east was ( which I know isn’t the north west!)

And if the lockdown hadn’t reduced numbers to as low would more weeks have lockdown have worked? With the linked economic damage?

I think this question is important as it plays into what happens now.

Hmmph, I agree. Plus, if students' tests are being allocated to their home postcodes, how can we explain the very high rates in predominantly student areas in northern cities? Unless the vast majority of students register with a local GP within a couple of weeks of moving to their university (which seems unlikely, but I don't have any data either way).

Sorry the north east did have low numbers so not a good analogy to the north west. But some areas of the north west were at lower numbers at lockdown.

And then we have to ask why has the north east soared.

how do the council know

Local contact tracing? "Hi fred, we hear you've just tested positive, can you say what pubs in Richmond you've visited this week?" "eh? I'm in Leeds?"

@RedToothBrush
it looks like you could definitely say that north came out of lockdown far too early but it's easy to say that - the truth is that it's very difficult to keep people stuck at home for longer than is necessary to do most of the suppression and get numbers in hospitals down. Keeping people in lockdown for months on end isn't easy to do at all, and there would have been a massive political stink if for example i couldn't go anywhere but my neighbours in Cheshire less than a mile away could. They managed it in Leicester to a degree but to have done that in GM, which is such a large and diverse area, would have been extremely difficult.

@wintertravel1980
"3. Increased testing of children associated with the start of the school year has not revealed widely spread asymptomatic cases. In fact, children under 10 had the lowest positivity rate across all age categories."

1. I think this statement would be true if they tested all pupils in X schools to establish a baseline. Just general testing of random primary kids I don't think proves the point.

I agree that it does look like there is a divide and primaries have to fall into another category from transmission perspective.

@littlestpogo

Sorry the north east did have low numbers so not a good analogy to the north west. But some areas of the north west were at lower numbers at lockdown.

And then we have to ask why has the north east soared.

I’m interested in this. We’re the numbers higher during the lockdown? Or did they soar after it ended?

Did lockdown reduce numbers at all as it did in London etc

I say London as I feel I know the path. I’d be interested to know path and timing in NW particularly

@ChloeCrocodile

Hmmph, I agree. Plus, if students' tests are being allocated to their home postcodes, how can we explain the very high rates in predominantly student areas in northern cities? Unless the vast majority of students register with a local GP within a couple of weeks of moving to their university (which seems unlikely, but I don't have any data either way).

First year students using home GP address whereas second and third years have already switched to a practise at their university?

Gm confirmed to be in tier 2 apparently. I suspect the government wanted us to be tier 3 but couldn't come to an agreement with andy burnham. I really hope this all becomes clear later.

[quote Frazzled2207]@RedToothBrush
it looks like you could definitely say that north came out of lockdown far too early but it's easy to say that - the truth is that it's very difficult to keep people stuck at home for longer than is necessary to do most of the suppression and get numbers in hospitals down. Keeping people in lockdown for months on end isn't easy to do at all, and there would have been a massive political stink if for example i couldn't go anywhere but my neighbours in Cheshire less than a mile away could. They managed it in Leicester to a degree but to have done that in GM, which is such a large and diverse area, would have been extremely difficult.[/quote]
They did it in Leicester though as you say.

As they've had restrictions in Manchester when those a mile in Cheshire have not for half the summer.

I don't see why it couldn't have been done tbh.

Many of the local councils in the NW decided not to reopen the schools for several weeks after 1st June which the government dictated. That was annoying but it wasn't met with outright hostility either - many parents were very much on the fence and worried about reopening at that point.

I've been directly affected by border differences and I'm currently awaiting news on whether this afternoon will create even more.

[quote PrayingandHoping]@pinkpip100

This was the slide I was talking about where is splits under 16s and over 16s

[/quote]
Thanks @prayingandhoping and @BigChocFrenzy for links.

@Frazzled2207

Gm confirmed to be in tier 2 apparently. I suspect the government wanted us to be tier 3 but couldn't come to an agreement with andy burnham. I really hope this all becomes clear later.

Due to lack of funding do you think?

If Richmond upon Thames and other places have lower numbers, that is bad news for somewhere else. (Maybe students from Cornwall are clever enough to register for a GP.)

On the "how", local public health teams have access to more detailed data to be able to do their jobs; there is a "PHE Local Health Tool" that I've seen information about in the LA list of links, but can't access. Standard data protection (GDPR) means there has to be a cut-off somewhere about what's appropriate to share.