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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

996 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2020 23:27

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
RedToothBrush · 11/10/2020 19:38

Incidentally, Southampton University doesn’t seem to be causing a spike in cases.

Question: we know that the most affluent 18 - 24 year olds were driving infections.

Is there any correlation between red brick universities having a bigger problem than less fashionable / prestigious university which perhaps might reflect that?

Oaktree55 · 11/10/2020 19:39

@Hmmph yes that’s true. I know of someone at the Uni and I think they’ve handled it really well. I’ll ask if they’re saliva testing there too. I know there’s no face to face and students all on line and it’s policed very well by local police (they’re constantly there checking for rule breaking). Not that I agree with students being caged it’s all a total mess but probably explains the low incidence.

Oaktree55 · 11/10/2020 19:41

@RedToothBrush Southampton is Russell Group

MarshaBradyo · 11/10/2020 19:42

Where are we with saliva tests? Are they not used more widely just due to availability?

Piggywaspushed · 11/10/2020 19:43

Ooffff. Southampton very much a top 20 uni!

Piggywaspushed · 11/10/2020 19:44

Not quite sure what noise that was meant to be!!

Oaktree55 · 11/10/2020 19:44

@MarshaBradyo they’ve just been licenced I believe in States. There is an issue with accuracy they apparently miss some positives. Follow Michael Mina on Twitter to read the detail.

PrayingandHoping · 11/10/2020 19:45

Southampton uni is out of town... I wonder if that may be a factor. It's uni bus or extremely long walk to get into town (I went to uni there)

It has plenty of affluent students.

Solent uni however is in town.

So overall they must be doing something right!

Piggywaspushed · 11/10/2020 19:45

Oak, do you know what the timescale is on the Southampton study?

Littlebelina · 11/10/2020 19:47

[quote Oaktree55]@Hmmph yes that’s true. I know of someone at the Uni and I think they’ve handled it really well. I’ll ask if they’re saliva testing there too. I know there’s no face to face and students all on line and it’s policed very well by local police (they’re constantly there checking for rule breaking). Not that I agree with students being caged it’s all a total mess but probably explains the low incidence.[/quote]
It appears to be taking place at the university as well

www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/09/saliva-phase-two.page

cathyandclare · 11/10/2020 19:49

Different unis have different start dates ( both official and social) - is that a contributing factor? Bristol for example has some clusters but fewer than Leeds, Newcastle, Exeter, Nottingham and Manchester - but the first teaching block started on October 5th. So they may be a week or two behind.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2020 19:50

@Hmmph

I think I might be getting there:

“What personal data we collect
...

Each test option will require slightly different details. The details we may need from you’re:

first and last name
date of birth
gender
ethnicity
email address
address including postcode
vehicle registration number, if booking a test at a regional test site
National Insurance number, if you’re a key worker
NHS number (for English residents and if you know it. Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland residents may need to provide a different local identifier, which will be specified upon registering for a test)
employer details, if you’re employed or work for the NHS or in social care”

“What purposes your data will be used for
DHSC is the data controller for the following purposes:

confirming the appointment to the regional test site
performing a security and ID verification at the regional test site
receiving and processing your test
returning your results to you
contacting you (if you test positive) as part of the government contact tracing programme
linking your test result to your GP record (if you are resident in England)
sharing your results with Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish health bodies (if you live in that country) to inform local planning and responses to COVID-19
sharing results with Public Health England (if you live in England) to help plan and respond to COVID-19
for residents in England, sharing your results with NHS Digital to analyse data in relation to COVID-19
undertaking quality assurance of the testing process (for example, clinical process assurance)
analysis to support operational decisions to improve the full end-to-end testing process such as:
day-to-day use (for example, whether someone attended their appointment)
to inform regional test sites of improvements to the testing process (for example, to manage capacity or throughput)
support end-to-end logistics planning”

“For English residents, we will link your test result to your GP record, so you do not need to inform your GP of your result.”

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-privacy-information/testing-for-coronavirus-privacy-information-quick-read

So they apparently are linking test results to GP records- I’m shocked! And still don’t see how this can be done for those (the probably large proportion of the population) who don’t know or enter their NHS number.

Although it still leaves the question about which postcode they use when “allocating” positives to an area. It can’t be GP postcode for all results as otherwise there would be no cases in areas without a GP (as is the case in my village). So I would still think that student from Richmond and registered only at Richmond GP who enters Leeds Uni accommodation postcode when booking a test would have their test positive linked to Leeds and not Richmond. If they enter this NHS number (unlikely!) it might link to their Richmond GP who is then informing the council of the data on their patients. Wouldn’t GP sharing medical records with the council be a massive breach of GDPR though. Or Test and Trace is using the GP address dataset to inform the councils. Scarily, that does seem possible... Although you’d think that someone would have noticed the case numbers were significantly less than on the dashboard!

... Excellent detective work ! That sheds considerable light

It's quite likely that some people don't have their NHS number to hand
Hence recording postcode for students at uni would be inconsistent, sometimes that of parents, sometimes of uni digs

OP posts:
ceeveebee · 11/10/2020 19:51

There have been outbreaks at both Manchester universities- University of Manchester (Russell group), and Manchester Metropolitan (or as I still call it, Manchester polytechnic) so don’t think that’s a pattern!
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-manchester-54442380

IloveJKRowling · 11/10/2020 19:52

@Augustbreeze ah yes parental consent. The research webpages do talk about how important this data is to keeping schools safe - it's not going to be a whole lot of use if we have to go the whole winter before we get any results. (and I'd suggest we'll know by then in any case what the results are of the UK experiment to send schools back against all the advice here www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/facts/questions-answers-school-transmission )
Hopefully Southampton will produce some results sooner.

We do need this data. However, even if schools only track community infection levels, as community levels go up - as they are currently doing fairly fast in many areas - that still means higher viral load in schools, which has been shown to cause more severe disease.

avenueq · 11/10/2020 19:56

Not all teaching at Southampton is online.

PrayingandHoping · 11/10/2020 19:56

@ceeveebee are they both "in town"?

At Southampton because the uni is out of town a lot of your socialising is in hall. No one goes into town every night.....

Applesandpears23 · 11/10/2020 19:57

So we know primary school attendance % are pretty much normal. Do we know whether the number of pupils registered has dropped at all? If parents have removed children from the roll then they will disappear from this stat. Anyone know if there’s any data on this?

avenueq · 11/10/2020 19:57

But yes, saliva testing is happening, with reminders by text when to do the next sample.

PrayingandHoping · 11/10/2020 19:58

@avenueq didn't think it could be.... it's a science course based uni and lab work can't be done online....

My BIL is a uni tutor at a different uni for an engineering course, they are online except where they have to go in for practical

sirfredfredgeorge · 11/10/2020 19:58

How is Warwick Uni fairing then, if Southampton is "doing right" due to location etc. Similar "reputation" and out of city location, but seems to have significantly higher cases?

I do wonder if testing levels are quite different at different universities.

IloveJKRowling · 11/10/2020 20:01

Also, on the fines issue - schools tend to threaten fines first. So actual fines is probably not the most reliable metric as I think there are a whole range of actions taken first and we're not that far into term yet (the teachers may know more about this).

In addition, I think a lot of people are sending kids in because they do not feel they can homeschool, and do not want to be disadvantaged educationally despite the risks - a stressful situation and impossible decision. The official position is - as I understand it - that the school should not send work home if kids taken out if family vulnerable and feel the risks are too high in UK schools.

avenueq · 11/10/2020 20:01

I think the testing definitely helps. How much are other unis running their own programme?
Dd is doing a humanities degree with so far 50 % of classes f2f - small groups in big rooms, with masks.

ancientgran · 11/10/2020 20:02

cathyandclare Different unis have different start dates Even in the same uni some subjects have very different dates e.g. one of mine did HCP degree, in the summer they were all moved (I suppose halls were being maintained or used for something else) so several blocks of people doing nursing/midwifery/paramedics/medicine. All doing placements in hospitals and from memory their year didn't end until late August and started back mid September. In September they all moved to new halls or private rentals mixing with other students.

Witchend · 11/10/2020 20:06

@cathyandclare

Different unis have different start dates ( both official and social) - is that a contributing factor? Bristol for example has some clusters but fewer than Leeds, Newcastle, Exeter, Nottingham and Manchester - but the first teaching block started on October 5th. So they may be a week or two behind.
Durham teaching started on October 5th too, so that's not the entire reason.
ancientgran · 11/10/2020 20:07

How is Warwick Uni fairing then, if Southampton is "doing right" due to location etc. Similar "reputation" and out of city location, but seems to have significantly higher cases? Don't know if it still the same but Warwick students used to be divided between living in Coventry, obviously a city, or Leamington, much smaller, with a few in Kenilworth. I wonder if their is any difference in infection rates in the students in the city and the towns? Not sure if that would be available anywhere. I might have a look at rates in Leamington.