Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Here you go!

Since no-one is collecting any of this, and I have noticed a pattern, I may as well construct my own. Yes, the sample size is not ideal, but since my school has 1% of the population of my council present, it's not as bad as it might be. Granted, I only have 2 weeks of data on this, but I can continue to collect it in the run up to half term.

If staff absence does indeed track cases in the community, and if it is doing this across the country, then it is quite a straight forwards projection that we are going to run into problems very soon. We are currently at approximately 5% staff absence and just about able to deal with it, but extrapolating forwards, it does not look maintainable in anything more than the shortest term.

@Piggywaspushed

I think there is a difference between COVID surviving on surfaces (even for a very long time) and surviving on surfaces in sufficient quantities to be infectious.

The risk of fomite transmission is not zero but based on what we know about other coronaviruses (e.g. SARS) the highest area of risk is public restrooms. Outside of that environment, the risk appears to be significantly lower.

@ancientgran

Maybe leave out opinions as well, from everyone of course.

.. Anyone is free to create their own anecdata thread and post to their heart's content about how dangerous schools are

Lovely@Nellodee , but what is in Columns I and J??

@Nellodee

Here you go!

Since no-one is collecting any of this, and I have noticed a pattern, I may as well construct my own. Yes, the sample size is not ideal, but since my school has 1% of the population of my council present, it's not as bad as it might be. Granted, I only have 2 weeks of data on this, but I can continue to collect it in the run up to half term.

If staff absence does indeed track cases in the community, and if it is doing this across the country, then it is quite a straight forwards projection that we are going to run into problems very soon. We are currently at approximately 5% staff absence and just about able to deal with it, but extrapolating forwards, it does not look maintainable in anything more than the shortest term.

.. That looks interesting

Could you give a key to Columns I and J, pls

I hope so winter!

Apologies! The graph compares staff absences at my large secondary (lower line) with cases in my council.

Sorry to keep going on about Richmond, but it has opened up a very major question about the data:

WHERE is the postcode coming from that that are linking the positive cases to?

Is it the postcode you enter when booking the test?
The home or GP postcode your NHS number is linked to? And what do they use if you don’t provide an NHS number?
Some other database of England residents that is mysteriously and unbelievably linked to the NHS test booking system?

Anyone is free to create their own anecdata thread and post to their heart's content about how dangerous schools are Anyone is free to post on any thread.

Corrected, with apologies.

@Nellodee are schools using supply teachers or is that discouraged like bank staff in care homes? If you can't use supply it is going to get very difficult looking at that.

@MotherOfDragonite

"Part of that low attendance will be parental choice, or indeeed student choice; part will be due to awaiting tests and a tiny minority actually with positive tests

pt schools would be something imposed on parents
and so far it seems the majority of parents want / need schools to stay ft and accept that the price is a small minority of classes / schools being sent home"

@BigChocFrenzy There is no such thing as parental or student choice in these figures. In England, parents are currently forced to send their children to school whether they like it or not with threats of fines, prosecution or deregistration. Unlike the USA, most provinces in Canada, and undoubtedly other countries. We have a very, very unusually draconian approach to school attendance during this pandemic.

That is not entirely true. Some councils have suspended fines. Richmond, Kingston, Wandsworth are some of them. Schools still have to report unauthorized attendance and LEAs can chose to go beyond school to check it out. They have an X code for covid related absence and technically it shows up as authorized absence in the LMS.

[quote ancientgran]@Nellodee are schools using supply teachers or is that discouraged like bank staff in care homes? If you can't use supply it is going to get very difficult looking at that.[/quote]
It’s discouraged. Schools are covering those absences using existing staff.

@Hmmph

Sorry to keep going on about Richmond, but it has opened up a very major question about the data:

WHERE is the postcode coming from that that are linking the positive cases to?

Is it the postcode you enter when booking the test?
The home or GP postcode your NHS number is linked to? And what do they use if you don’t provide an NHS number?
Some other database of England residents that is mysteriously and unbelievably linked to the NHS test booking system?

... I'm intrigued too Frustratingly that article only quoted what the public health team in Richmond received, not how the data was collated

It is a reasonable hypothesis that Uni students may be adding figures to the "wrong" buroughs, but other than that Richmond article, which states the number of outside postcodes in the total number of cases received,
I have been unable to quantify any amounts

The "how" the postcodes were input / obtained might also help to answer "how many"

At my school, we don't usually use supply other than in the direst circumstances. I am not certain how much flex there is in what the supply agencies are able to provide us with, but I imagine we may find out fairly soon.

Of course, it's possible that staff absences will not track growth in the local area (though I cannot really see any reason why they wouldn't). However, I think it is quite reasonable to extrapolate from the position we are in.

There is no money left in many schools for supply. All extra money has been spent on hand gel and signage.

Many supply teachers are retired/older and the bank of supply teachers has, therefore, shrunk considerably.

So supply may be limited. Will they send classes home if there aren't enough staff to cover or do they have a cunning plan?

If they do, they're certainly not sharing it widely, are they?

@ancientgran

So supply may be limited. Will they send classes home if there aren't enough staff to cover or do they have a cunning plan?

Yes because of staff ratios. If staff absences continue to reflect the community spread. This will happen. It is happening in schools up north. Where their community spread is a lot higher. I think Nell is on to something tracking this. 🙃

Letter from Manchester MPs to the PM

basically asking not to close pubs & restaurants there, because transmission still predominantly in student accommodation

I think there ought to be consternation in SpiB about these levels of measures whilst still maintaining the utilitarian things like travelling to work (for many) and education. That's actually bad for compliance. There may well develop a very fatalistic mindset . The local service economy will be stuffed, too. it's so complex.

A well written letter, I hope they listen.

@BigChocFrenzy

Letter from Manchester MPs to the PM

basically asking not to close pubs & restaurants there, because transmission still predominantly in student accommodation

Very interesting letter. I’m not surprised

I am in Greater Manchester. Have been out and about this weekend to a cafe and also licensed premises. The measures put in place when I was there made catching or passing on Covid honestly next to zero. They were strictly enforced in an effective and intelligent way and have improved greatly on those imposed during reopened SD days in early July.

I agree with those GM MP's that shutting these premises is likely to not be effective in reducing overall transmission and will cause massive further economic despair. Unfortunately, this government have started down the path of ignoring the evidence in front of their eyes (of where most transmission occurs) and seem determined to forge ahead.

Nellodee That graph is great - I think it would be wonderful if teachers would record this sort of thing. No-one else is - my OPINION based on the lack of DATA is that there has been a central decision not to report on schools.

Apart from anything else, it will be helpful for teachers who wish to sue the government for forcing them into unsafe schools if they need to do so (i truly hope no teachers get long covid or worse but, 2+2=4)

I don't understand why the Bristol study wouldn't have interim data by now.