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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

996 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2020 23:27

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
Augustbreeze · 11/10/2020 18:58

@IloveJKRowling presumably because they've had to set it up (parental consents can take ages to come back!) and will have only done one round of swabs, it's monthly.

littlestpogo · 11/10/2020 18:59

I was wondering if there is any data on the numbers of fines imposed by could councils re non attendance atm and how many have suspended fines.

That would at least give an idea whether families are indeed being forced to send vulnerable ( to covid) children into school and help ascertain I’d this is actually an issue in fact.

Reastie · 11/10/2020 19:00

@boys3 thank you for the positivity rates, can I ask where did you find them?

EducatingArti · 11/10/2020 19:01

My friends were in Heaton Park ( Greater Manchester) this morning and said it was heaving in places ( especially near the children's playground) with no one bothering to social distance. It was crowded in playground of local park this afternoon and again not much social distancing ( children or adults).
There were lots of 10-12 year olds out unsupervised and not aware of others or of giving them space/distance
I do think that most kids a d parents think that if they don't have to social distance in school, then they don't need to bother anywhere else.
I think it might be this sort of site that needs clearer rules/supervision rather than a cafe!

TheSunIsStillShining · 11/10/2020 19:02

@Nellodee
To see if this is a true reflection of national proportions potentially, could you check the demographics of your council? Does it correspond with anything relatable?

Nellodee · 11/10/2020 19:06

I'm sorry, Sun, I don't quite understand what you mean.

Nellodee · 11/10/2020 19:07

I don't want to give away too much about my specific council, as I am not certain my school would appreciate me sharing staff absence figures.

DazzlingDaisies · 11/10/2020 19:10

I do think that most kids a d parents think that if they don't have to social distance in school, then they don't need to bother anywhere else.

I totally think this is what is going on.

Hmmph · 11/10/2020 19:11

I think I might be getting there:

“What personal data we collect
...

Each test option will require slightly different details. The details we may need from you’re:

first and last name
date of birth
gender
ethnicity
email address
address including postcode
vehicle registration number, if booking a test at a regional test site
National Insurance number, if you’re a key worker
NHS number (for English residents and if you know it. Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland residents may need to provide a different local identifier, which will be specified upon registering for a test)
employer details, if you’re employed or work for the NHS or in social care”

“What purposes your data will be used for
DHSC is the data controller for the following purposes:

confirming the appointment to the regional test site
performing a security and ID verification at the regional test site
receiving and processing your test
returning your results to you
contacting you (if you test positive) as part of the government contact tracing programme
linking your test result to your GP record (if you are resident in England)
sharing your results with Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish health bodies (if you live in that country) to inform local planning and responses to COVID-19
sharing results with Public Health England (if you live in England) to help plan and respond to COVID-19
for residents in England, sharing your results with NHS Digital to analyse data in relation to COVID-19
undertaking quality assurance of the testing process (for example, clinical process assurance)
analysis to support operational decisions to improve the full end-to-end testing process such as:
day-to-day use (for example, whether someone attended their appointment)
to inform regional test sites of improvements to the testing process (for example, to manage capacity or throughput)
support end-to-end logistics planning”

“For English residents, we will link your test result to your GP record, so you do not need to inform your GP of your result.”

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-privacy-information/testing-for-coronavirus-privacy-information-quick-read

So they apparently are linking test results to GP records- I’m shocked! And still don’t see how this can be done for those (the probably large proportion of the population) who don’t know or enter their NHS number.

Although it still leaves the question about which postcode they use when “allocating” positives to an area. It can’t be GP postcode for all results as otherwise there would be no cases in areas without a GP (as is the case in my village). So I would still think that student from Richmond and registered only at Richmond GP who enters Leeds Uni accommodation postcode when booking a test would have their test positive linked to Leeds and not Richmond. If they enter this NHS number (unlikely!) it might link to their Richmond GP who is then informing the council of the data on their patients. Wouldn’t GP sharing medical records with the council be a massive breach of GDPR though. Or Test and Trace is using the GP address dataset to inform the councils. Scarily, that does seem possible... Although you’d think that someone would have noticed the case numbers were significantly less than on the dashboard!

Oaktree55 · 11/10/2020 19:13

You may all want to keep tabs on a research project between Southampton Council/Southampton Uni/NHS

They’re saliva testing pupils daily in a selection of schools across Southampton. Currently 50:100k.

Should be some much needed data. Debbie Chase Public Health Southampton is a good Twitter follow.

I believe Italy is also carrying this type of research out as well.

RedToothBrush · 11/10/2020 19:13

Its a real mixed bag of compliance around here.

The school introduced a mask on the school grounds and this was great because it reduced the chinwagging around the gates and in the playground.

Ive seen lots of kids and parents in huge gangs outside school though.

And enforcement of covid rules in bars and restaurants is very mixed too. Some are very good but others are terrible and have earned a reputation locally to avoid.

Hmmph · 11/10/2020 19:15

And it does say “The details we may need from you’re“ Shock

MRex · 11/10/2020 19:16

That's a good letter from the Greater Manchester MPs. It's clear that people need to start cutting down on private socialising, however much people suggest it "doesn't make sense".

This research on fomites looked credible to me (well, I haven't seen anyone credible looking to dispute it yet and it's been fairly widely quoted, that's the extent of my scientific opinion!). Largely it suggests that the virus does not survive in infectious form as long in real life conditions as some of the lab research: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7333993/. So wipe down high transmission areas and hospitals, but don't go bonkers.

Augustbreeze · 11/10/2020 19:16

@Nellodee perhaps you could tell us yr region and whether you're urban or rural?

It's a great idea and I am minded to do it for my school too, well done!

Welsh schools said they wouldn't fine for non attendance until November. I've heard that a very few extremely clinically vulnerable children have been allowed to stay at home but have seen no data.

The only place collating numbers for infections and accounts of how different schools are handling students being kept at home seems to be the Boycott Return To Unsafe Schools Fb group. Three is a lot of anecdata on there, it would make the toes of most posters on here curl!

herecomesthsun · 11/10/2020 19:19

@DazzlingDaisies

I do think that most kids a d parents think that if they don't have to social distance in school, then they don't need to bother anywhere else.

I totally think this is what is going on.

I think it might be a variant of this. The rules say one thing, but they are forced to expose themselves to a lot of risk on a daily basis, in some cases, when they would have chosen to do things quite differently if they had any choice.

So people think, what is the point of destroying our life in other ways, when we are already so exposed.

And the children may well struggle to understand & remember that things are supposed to be different out of school.

Nellodee · 11/10/2020 19:24

I'm on the East coast, no large cities.

FingonTheValiant · 11/10/2020 19:25

France has 16,101 new cases today and 46 deaths, compared to 12,565 and 32 last Sunday.

One of our epidemiologists claims that we’ve reduced transmission by 50%. I must admit, I don’t find that obvious from the numbers...

TheSunIsStillShining · 11/10/2020 19:26

@Nellodee

I'm sorry, Sun, I don't quite understand what you mean.
I'll try to be "show my working"
  1. "my school has 1% of the population of my council present"
  2. "If staff absence does indeed track cases in the community, and if it is doing this across the country,..."

A) what's the demographics of the area, if possible to find out. Eg mainly young parents or mainly older parents...
B) what's the demographic of the teachers? MAny young, many near retirement?
C) does the local demographic and teacher demographic correspond to any nation-level demographics?

Why I'm asking is... I was thinking of our school. 800 kids in secondary. about 200 teaching staff, 100 core.
About 70% of our teachers are 30 or below. 20% 30-50 and 10% above 50. (Best guess)

Now, if this in inline with the general population of teachers, than inference can be drawn. But if the general teaching population is totally different, then whatever happens in our school will have no relevance elsewhere.

Does this make more sense?

Or do we say that at this point- because of lack of granular data- we go with accepting that it is a good representation?

I'm okay either way, just want to make sure we cover our bases :)

FingonTheValiant · 11/10/2020 19:27

Particularly as positivity continues to rise. Up from 11% yesterday to 11.5% today.

Piggywaspushed · 11/10/2020 19:28

There's a behavioural theory that because the government keeps saying 'we will never close schools' and you have to keep going to work(or that's what people hear) they believe it makes no difference what they do outside of those places. So it's 'stuff the rules and carry on regardless' because our behaviour won't actually affect those really big decisions.

TheSunIsStillShining · 11/10/2020 19:29

@FingonTheValiant
Most people don't look at data, but read news headlines. My guess is that this would be a "let's calm people down" type of headline and might have nothing to do with actual data.

Frazzled2207 · 11/10/2020 19:31

@AnyFucker
Also in gm and with a few small exceptions entirely agree.
Resources and energy Much better directed at people flouting the rules -some
businesses perhaps but mostly just individuals. Forcing Covid-safe businesses to close is at huge economic cost and won’t work as those already flouting the rules will sadly continue to do so.
It’s a mess.

Piggywaspushed · 11/10/2020 19:31

Data here about average teacher age, if it helps. British teachers are younger on average than in most countries :

www.oecd.org/education/talis/TALIS2018_CN_ENG.pdf

Hmmph · 11/10/2020 19:32

@Oaktree55

You may all want to keep tabs on a research project between Southampton Council/Southampton Uni/NHS

They’re saliva testing pupils daily in a selection of schools across Southampton. Currently 50:100k.

Should be some much needed data. Debbie Chase Public Health Southampton is a good Twitter follow.

I believe Italy is also carrying this type of research out as well.

Incidentally, Southampton University doesn’t seem to be causing a spike in cases.
Nellodee · 11/10/2020 19:36

Oh, I see. I'd say we have about 200 teaching staff, 1700 students. I'd say the ages of our staff pretty much reflect yours - we like to get 'em young and cheap!