Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

UKweekly overviews from COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats of:

1. Deaths of people who have died within 28 days of a first positive test, by date reported. 475 vs 362

) People who have had at least one lab-confirmed positive test result, by date reported
100,740 vs 68,010

I think it may be one of those irregular verbs:

I make deductions.
You use anecdata.
He/She quotes their best friend's dustman's cousin.

@ancientgran

I did not quote my best friend's dusyman's cousin There are teachers and parents with children in schools who have reported their deductions. I think you are being very rude to people like ILoveJKRowling who made a very good case for looking at people's actual experience, her deduction about the comparison with care homes is very valid. At least as valid as saying kids don't want to be pariahs.

One rule for one and one rule for the other. Couldn’t be more ironic and in line with this government if they tried!

@BigChocFrenzy unfortunately the primary school DD attends have just sent a mail out saying they are seeing too much absence now and will need doctors notes for any absence in excess of 2 days or we'll be reported to the education welfare teams. This means that we have to send the kids in with colds and bugs as they last longer than 2 days and can't get a doctors note.

It's only if they have one of the 3 main CV symptoms and we're still waiting for test results that we can avoid the doctors note, but we are expected to provide proof of a test booking.

@Piggywaspushed

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54465733

Whoops

... BCG is exciting because we have decades of evidence that the vaccine is safe to use on millions

Reducing the severity of the disease in a significant % of cases would be a gamechanger

I feel like this research takes us back to April and the shopping wiping. I had stopped being so worried about surfaces...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54500673

^The virus responsible for Covid-19 can remain infectious on surfaces such as banknotes, phone screens and stainless steel for 28 days, researchers say.
The findings from Australia's national science agency suggest SARS-Cov-2 can survive for far longer on surfaces than previously thought.^

If some pp want to turn this into yet another MN thread of "worried about school" anecdata,
I wish you'd start your own.

Alternatively, I can leave the remainder of this thread for you to fill up with your worries,
while I start thread 24 for those who want to discuss actual data

Re students registering their tests, if one doesn’t input an NHS number, you have to provide either national insurance number or another form of ID so they can validate that you exist, I wonder if this would be the reason why these tests are being linked to ‘Richmond’ or home address?

This is a worry. I wonder what a UK survey would reveal:

A significant number of French nurses responding to a poll say they are tired and fed up, with 37% saying that the pandemic is making them want to change jobs. The poll published Sunday by the National Order of Nurses comes as infection rates soar across the country.
Nearly 59,400 nurses responded to the poll on the impact of the health crisis on their working conditions, out of 350,000 in the Order of Nurses. The numbers painted a grim diagnosis of the profession and suggested that French medical facilities may not be keeping pace with the growing need caused by the pandemic, despite lessons that should have been learned from the height of the virus last spring.
Of nurses in public establishments, 43% felt that “we are not better prepared collectively to respond to a new wave of infections”, according to the poll. The figure rises to 46% for nurses in the private domain. About two-thirds of respondents say their working conditions have deteriorated since the start of the crisis.
Burnout looms, the poll suggests, with 57% of respondents saying they have been professionally exhausted since the start of pandemic, while nearly half saying there’s a strong risk that fatigue will impact the quality of care patients receive.
For 37% of the nurses responding, the crisis “makes them want to change jobs” and 43% “don’t know if they will still be nurses in five years”, according to the poll, which did not provide a margin of error.

Sorry, no idea why my bold won't work. The survey was reported in The Guardian.

But I don't think that's the case. The booking form tells you to arrive with ID, but I've never heard of anyone actually being asked to show it?

The ID issue came up on several threads a while again, because parents were worried that they had no ID for their children (although actually the test invitation specifically says under 18s don't need ID.) But no one had ever been asked for it.

If some pp want to turn this into yet another MN thread of "worried about school" anecdata,
I wish you'd start your own.

Alternatively, I can leave the remainder of this thread for you to fill up with your worries,
while I start thread 24 for those who want to discuss actual data

But you don't just discuss data do you, you discuss your deductions which apparently is the same thing but no one else is allowed an opinion. As I said you are being rude.

I give opinions as anyone can

I avoid anecdata

If you can't see the difference, you have a comprehension problem

"Part of that low attendance will be parental choice, or indeeed student choice;
part will be due to awaiting tests and a tiny minority actually with positive tests

pt schools would be something imposed on parents
and so far it seems the majority of parents want / need schools to stay ft and accept that the price is a small minority of classes / schools being sent home"

@BigChocFrenzy There is no such thing as parental or student choice in these figures. In England, parents are currently forced to send their children to school whether they like it or not with threats of fines, prosecution or deregistration. Unlike the USA, most provinces in Canada, and undoubtedly other countries. We have a very, very unusually draconian approach to school attendance during this pandemic.

I think there are some very important questions to be asked about infectivity rates and transmission in schools, and how this is being presented to the public.

It is a huge unknown and of great interest.

Positivity rates (p2 seven days to 08 Oct)

@ILoveTeeeeeea

Re students registering their tests, if one doesn’t input an NHS number, you have to provide either national insurance number or another form of ID so they can validate that you exist, I wonder if this would be the reason why these tests are being linked to ‘Richmond’ or home address?

Sorry- this was for home tests, not drive throughs (I provided NI number for one as couldn’t find my NHS Number)

@Piggywaspushed

I feel like this research takes us back to April and the shopping wiping. I had stopped being so worried about surfaces...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54500673

^The virus responsible for Covid-19 can remain infectious on surfaces such as banknotes, phone screens and stainless steel for 28 days, researchers say.
The findings from Australia's national science agency suggest SARS-Cov-2 can survive for far longer on surfaces than previously thought.^

... There have been many studies detecting virus on surfaces for days but I would like to see how the study confirmed that this is live virus which can actually infect people

Also, the study carried out its experiments in the dark, which does not represent most real life

The postcode location of each positive case cannot be linked to NHS number->GP surgery postcode as otherwise there would be no cases in my MSOA as there is no GP there.

The next OP will include a request that people do NOT post anecdata

Maybe leave out opinions as well, from everyone of course.