Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

re Van-Tamm:

imo his article covered the public health emergency of Covid and the accompanying high risks to delays in cancer treatments etc

He did not stray into the longterm consequences of closing gyms - in areas where this has been done - or MH,
because he was concentrating on explaining the immediate emergency situation

To get the attention of those people who are not currently bothered, it is better to focus on immediate problems, rather than future predictions - which many people distrust anyway

I think where there is a lack of official data (e.g. conditions in schools) then anecdata can be useful. Particularly from people who really know, like teachers.

How else would we ever know when something bad was happening?

It was people speaking out that lead to the covid in care homes scandal coming to light and data being collected.

People won't go and look for robust data if no-one speaks up.

Too many people think that the conditions described in Baaaahhhhh's link is what we have here. Active misinformation from the pictures on the BBC of SD classes.

@Perihelion

Similar to yesterday in Scotland. Less infections in 15-24 age group, now accounting for just over 20% . 25-44 is at about 25% and the over 45's account for just over 40% of new infections. This is no longer being driven by students. Total numbers of tests and infections are less than yesterday. I wonder the effect of the October holiday?

Could this be the parents of the young people infected previously? So the 14-25 year olds living at home, plus the ones living away from home and visiting/ being visited by their parents.

Average age of mothers and fathers at birth of child in 2000 was 28.5 and 31.7. So the parents of 20 year olds will be an average of 48.5 and 51.7 now.

Parents are the main non-peer group contacts of the young people driving the current wave.

@Baaaahhhhh

Part of that low attendance will be parental choice, or indeeed student choice; part will be due to awaiting tests and a tiny minority actually with positive tests

More students will also stay home with "just a cold". No-one wants anyone sneezing on them at the moment. Pariah status. I think there has been a slight shift towards staying home for a couple of days, when under normal circumstances the societal norm would have been to battle through and go in regardless.

... Very good point about staying home with a cold

secondary school kids would normally go in for the multiple colds & sniffles expected in autumn & winter,
but many would fear being pariahs now for sneezing, even if they aren't personally anxious about health

@Baaaahhhhh

Part of that low attendance will be parental choice, or indeeed student choice; part will be due to awaiting tests and a tiny minority actually with positive tests

More students will also stay home with "just a cold". No-one wants anyone sneezing on them at the moment. Pariah status. I think there has been a slight shift towards staying home for a couple of days, when under normal circumstances the societal norm would have been to battle through and go in regardless.

Yep and also fear of being asked to get a test before you return

Part of that low attendance will be parental choice, or indeeed student choice; part will be due to awaiting tests and a tiny minority actually with positive tests

Where's the evidence for this?

Highly unlikely to be more significant than the opposite in my view. The culture in the UK is 'dose 'em up and send 'em in' due to strictly enforced attendance targets, and sadly that has continued this term, in my real life experience. Several times I've been told to send a sick kid in after giving calpol. If you look at other MN threads you have schools telling parents who are isolating to come along to the school to drop their non-isolating kids off, telling people to send kids in sick. Threatening action for non- attendance.

I ignore anecdata unless it comes with a link, article or some evidence to back it up

Plenty of other MN threads to post about school fears, or claims this is all a hoax

However, these threads specifically deal with data, statistics and analysis & comments thereon

So I ask pp to please be considerate and keep within the spirit of these threads

I think it is more the issue that many are staying off for a week at a time : tbh if they are ill enough to do that, I'd question whether they should have had a test! The 'pariah' effect to me seems to extend more to me to the idea that they want so desperately not to be the 'one with covid'. Still, if they stay off for a week or more, that is not good for data collections but is at least wise for health! I say this as someone who sent my own DS in with a cold and has now discovered his deskmate in Spanish tested positive...

The stat that concerns me most though is that (of the 78% of schools that actually report in) 18% of secondaries are not considered fully open. It's the yoyo effect that disrupts and also has knock on effects on staff wellbeing and physical and mental health, which shouldn't really be underestimated. In the end, it is the level of staff absence that could create crises.

The REACT-2 survey:

109k person study found 6.0% SARS-COV-2 antibody seroprevalence (adjusted for test characteristics) in England.

But the age breakdown as a percentage was:
15-44 age group 7.2%
compared with 3.2%/ 3.3% in the 65 and over age group.
mobile.twitter.com/DevanSinha/status/1293830021199679488

Doesn't tell us anything regarding students (would also be interesting/useful if they had broken down the age bands a bit more) but it does tell us there was a huge proportion of all age groups who had not yet been infected and therefore still vulnerable to infection.

There was a reception teacher saying that she had kids telling her they'd been given calpol before coming to school. (she commented that 4 year olds are honest).

If any school is asking parents to break the rules, they should publicly be named and shamed

The REACT study shows the danger of much higher deaths as infection spreads more to the older age groups

I think we’ve seen a big swing away from our old practises of turning up whatever - in school or at work. Not sure where to find stats on it though.

It is interesting that baahh's link mentions symptoms of covid as cough, fever, fatigue etc : what on earth is 'etc* !? It doesn't exactly fit in with our insistence on these three criteria in the UK (and I presume elsewhere)

I'd be interested in that, too Marsha. It still seems to be a prevalent attitude in exam age students, though, for obvious reasons.

The government's 'resit exams' currently happening have been disrupted by reports of covid leading to a necessitation of several students to SI, thereby missing exams, which was almost certainly inevitable.

Very good point about staying home with a cold

secondary school kids would normally go in for the multiple colds & sniffles expected in autumn & winter,
but many would fear being pariahs now for sneezing, even if they aren't personally anxious about health

I ignore anecdata unless it comes with a link, article or some evidence to back it up

So where is your data to back up what you've said? Can you show us the data to show kids fear being pariahs for sneezing. I think it is every bit as likely that they are keen to be the first.

@MarshaBradyo

I think we’ve seen a big swing away from our old practises of turning up whatever - in school or at work. Not sure where to find stats on it though.

... We can link to the rules for schools and offices etc as well as to planning / rules made by individual large organisations

We've no stats on compliance, but at least having rules in placewill likely change behaviour of many

@ancientgran

Very good point about staying home with a cold

secondary school kids would normally go in for the multiple colds & sniffles expected in autumn & winter,
but many would fear being pariahs now for sneezing, even if they aren't personally anxious about health

I ignore anecdata unless it comes with a link, article or some evidence to back it up

So where is your data to back up what you've said? Can you show us the data to show kids fear being pariahs for sneezing. I think it is every bit as likely that they are keen to be the first.

... I made deductions and gave opinions not anecdata

I did not quote my best friend's dusyman's cousin

Richard@RP131 UK

Updated England date-of-death vs. announcement chart.
Note that the numbers drop at the end as data is still being actively reported for those dates.

Full view since March for a bit of context.

Interesting story on news about link between BCG jab and the severity of covid.

The absence of data on the current situation in UK schools is what is worrying staff, and some parents.

The only study taking place as far as we know is the Bristol one, which isn't scheduled to release results until well into next year, here:

www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2020/september/commins-study.html

Extract (underlining is mine):

Ensuring pupils and staff stay safe when they return to school this autumn is a major challenge because there is very little scientific evidence on the incidence and transmission of COVID-19 within schools. A ground-breaking research project will test whether 5,000 staff and pupils have active or past COVID-19 infection, develop systems to help schools prevent and cope with an outbreak and assess strategies to support the mental wellbeing of the school community now and moving forward.

The project, COVID-19 Mapping and Mitigation in Schoolsls_ (CoMMinS), will be led by the University of Bristol and is funded by a £2.7 million NIHR-UKRI COVID-19 rapid response initiative.
Around nine million 4- to 18-year-old children attend school in England, around 16 per cent of the total population, but little is known about the impact and transmission patterns of COVID-19 in schoolchildren, how patterns of infection amongst pupils might impact the wider community, or the long-term consequences of school closure on the health of pupils.^

Limiting transmission of coronavirus in schools is challenging because children with COVID-19 often show no obvious symptoms and schoolchildren normally interact with a large number of other children and adults.

Working with Bristol City Council, Public Health England, local primary and secondary schools and other city stakeholders, CoMMinS will, over a six-month period, test for infection in schools and test whether staff and pupils have current or past COVID-19 infection.

Another complementary part of the project will be a collaboration with Middlesex University in a study of wastewater from school drains to monitor the amount of SARS-Cov2 virus present to see if this can provide an early warning of changes in infection levels.

I did not quote my best friend's dusyman's cousin There are teachers and parents with children in schools who have reported their deductions. I think you are being very rude to people like ILoveJKRowling who made a very good case for looking at people's actual experience, her deduction about the comparison with care homes is very valid. At least as valid as saying kids don't want to be pariahs.

Oh wastewater! That cause excitement on this thread!

Here is a link re the BCG:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54465733

Whoops

(However the underlining has jumped about! But yes I did mean to underline wastewater!!!)