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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

996 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2020 23:27

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2020 16:20

Back in March, there was doubling ~ every 3 days

Richard@RP131 UK plotting by specimen date with latest number added
and doubling period of 9 days continues to fit the numbers well

Again ignore the lag period at the end

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23
OP posts:
ancientgran · 11/10/2020 16:21

I don't imagine the immunity rate is the same in the south west as we have had such low numbers although Exeter uni seems to be doing it's best to change that.

herecomesthsun · 11/10/2020 16:21

oooh sorry, re the comparison with the March overlay.

So, back in March there were thought to be 100k + new cases a day. (?) Hence 1000 + deaths in April

Treatment improved a bit over this time, and also at risk people have generally been careful, so infections have happened in low risk/ younger people .

Back in early September, cases were 1-2+ per day (?) probably. So, in early October, you'd expect deaths to be in the current ball park.

There isn't a dramatic rise in deaths in the past few weeks, because cases didn't rise quickly in September the way they did in early to mid March. (social distancing, masks etc)

We are likely to get significant rises in the next few weeks unfortunately, because cases are now higher and older people have started getting infected again, also spread in hospitals & care homes and the unkown quantity of what is going on with clinically vulnerable people in and around schools. Sadly.

Witchend · 11/10/2020 16:22

@Piggywaspushed

If the R was so high in March, why weren't all those students infected back then?
Don't know about all the universities, but Durham went to online teaching for the last week before lockdown, many students went home. Dd was home by 14th March, so although there was a spread potential there, it will have been reduced. On the 2nd year uni thread someone commented that among their dc's friends those who went home on 15th March seemed to be the ones getting it now, and wondered if it had been fairly rife that last week as they'd all been ill then.

It also wasn't tested then, so they might have been infected in similar numbers but they wouldn't have known.

IloveJKRowling · 11/10/2020 16:23

I'm a little wary of directly comparing March to now as there are so many differences. I'm not sure how useful it is as an exercise.

I think it makes more sense to look at the data we have now, the data we know we're lacking and the problems that causes, and the knowledge we have about how the virus transmits in different situations (e.g. it's known to spread most effectively indoors where no distancing or masks for example, superspreading is known to be important, viral load affects severity of disease etc). And to compare what we're seeing in terms of official data plus the various symptom trackers and studies to the various predictions from scientists.

In terms of data lacking, I really appreciate the input from the teachers on this thread. There is so little official data available about number of cases in schools and impact on teacher / student ratios etc, and seemingly a trend to loosen the criteria for closing bubbles (which I personally find very alarming). The reality just isn't being reported on - I'm getting increasingly frustrated that pretty much every news article discusses social distancing in schools or shows pictures of that when I know just from pick up and talking to my DDs that there is none. At all. Things are exactly as they were in March in my daughter's schools.

So thank you to the teachers (in general and those on this thread in particular).

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2020 16:23

@Piggywaspushed

If the R was so high in March, why weren't all those students infected back then?
.... students may well have been infected back then too However, we weren't testing enough to know Young eople with mild or even no symptoms were under the radar; testing was mostly at hospital

What is definitely different is that back then a large number of elderly were infected, as they had not been shielded in the preceding 2-3 weeks
and of course the thousands discharged from hospitals into care homes

OP posts:
TheSunIsStillShining · 11/10/2020 16:25

[quote MRex]@Grausse - I wasn't so naive, but equally happy to hear it's happening at last!

@Itisasecret - there is only one thread for data facts and analysis; if you don't wish to be considerate, that's up to you, but if you make factually inaccurate comments on this thread you really must expect them to be called out.

Those interested in facts, the latest figures regarding school closures; 0.2% closed, 92% fully open and 90% children attending (94.7% is the usual rate and primary schools exceed that at 95%, secondary down at 86%): explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak.
As with all data so far, secondary schools show issues where primary schools do not.[/quote]
I think a definitive calming stat would be to primary kid's parents and teachers if we knew the amount of secondary infections. Eg. School A, no infections but School A parents infections=2, teachers=3.
And just as I was typing it popped in how bad this would be. These secondary cases could have picked it up anywhere, so unless someone is purely staying home this would be useless.

Just as a mental exercise: what data would we need to prove that primaries are not really drivers of spread? I think the main concern is that many primary age kids are asymptomatic, so ppl use this info to underpin that they are spreaders. (hope that made sense)

wintertravel1980 · 11/10/2020 16:27

It is a pity that "tests processed" numbers do not get updated over the weekend.

The numbers are moving in the right direction but it is not clear whether it is because the situation is improving or because we are processing fewer tests and/or running a backlog.

If testing numbers are roughly the same, England might have seen the peak on Oct 5th and might be flattening up.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2020 16:30

That school statistics link is the 5th link in the OP

https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak

For next OP, I've divided the links into sections with headers, so hopefully people can find things more easily

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2020 16:31

@wintertravel1980

It is a pity that "tests processed" numbers do not get updated over the weekend.

The numbers are moving in the right direction but it is not clear whether it is because the situation is improving or because we are processing fewer tests and/or running a backlog.

If testing numbers are roughly the same, England might have seen the peak on Oct 5th and might be flattening up.

... Far too early to say We need to see a full week at least, preferably 10 days - and hope no more positive tests are suddenly found
OP posts:
Perihelion · 11/10/2020 16:31

Similar to yesterday in Scotland. Less infections in 15-24 age group, now accounting for just over 20% . 25-44 is at about 25% and the over 45's account for just over 40% of new infections.
This is no longer being driven by students.
Total numbers of tests and infections are less than yesterday. I wonder the effect of the October holiday?

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2020 16:33

Also, hospitalisations and deaths are the key metrics,
independent of test results, which can fluctuate according to testing strategy or cockups

Currently, hospitalisations seem to be doubling every 9 days, similar to cases
and weekly deaths are rising too

OP posts:
Appuskidu · 11/10/2020 16:34

@Perihelion

Similar to yesterday in Scotland. Less infections in 15-24 age group, now accounting for just over 20% . 25-44 is at about 25% and the over 45's account for just over 40% of new infections. This is no longer being driven by students. Total numbers of tests and infections are less than yesterday. I wonder the effect of the October holiday?
Yes, it’s worrying.
Piggywaspushed · 11/10/2020 16:34

86 percent is really troubling though. That will be a lot lower in some school, most probably in the north in areas of disadvantage. That kind of low attendance will have as much impact as the dreaded part time / rota models.

Itisasecret · 11/10/2020 16:36

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

wondersun · 11/10/2020 16:36

@BigChocFrenzy

The differences between 1st wave and now are pretty obvious:

.Far younger age of infection now, which makes a massive difference to death rate
. Infections then are now estimated at 100-200k daily, possibly even higher
.R then was probably nearly 3, twice what it is now
.Far more knowledge to how to treat patients
.Far better understanding of which SD measures matter and when
.At least 8% and probably 11% on average now have immunity, which slows infection spread

BUT
infection is spreading to the elderly, so deaths are likely to rise

It is not surprising therefore that the 2nd wave of a novel virus has a much shallower gradient than the 1st
and very likely will have a lower peak of deaths

That is good news, as it is "flattening the curve"

Plus not a great time of year for it (compared to the first wave), hospitals busy with flu etc most years as it is in the winter.
IloveJKRowling · 11/10/2020 16:39

I think a definitive calming stat would be to primary kid's parents and teachers if we knew the amount of secondary infections. Eg. School A, no infections but School A parents infections=2, teachers=3.
And just as I was typing it popped in how bad this would be. These secondary cases could have picked it up anywhere, so unless someone is purely staying home this would be useless.

There are enough families where both parents WFH and aren't really doing much else (and certainly not in contact with anyone else without SD and masks) that this would be useful. Also, SAHPs, I know at least 2 single mums that have no exposure outside of their children.

My concern about primaries is viral load - it is impossible for reception teachers to distance - they have snot and coughs directly in their face, crying kids, wiping bums, being pissed on. The only way you can get a little child to calm down sometimes is physically touching them, getting close. This is the reality of little children. For parents, they may have to sleep in with their children when ill. High viral load.

Risk assessment should be about likelihood AND severity of harm. It's why we invest large amounts in safety procedures around nuclear power plants. The chance of an accident is extremely low, but the potential harm in the very very unlikely case that it happens is very high.

I suspect that primaries won't drive transmission, but this isn't helpful to vulnerable teachers and parents who could receive a massive viral load. So we need this sort of data to assess risk properly and make decisions .

Similar robust risk assessments needed in secondary - distancing is more likely but some teachers could be potentially exposed to massive viral load just from volume of students and length of exposure.

Masks do reduce viral load of course, so that would be an obvious solution for teachers without shutting schools or investing in them.

Itisasecret · 11/10/2020 16:41

@Piggywaspushed

If the R was so high in March, why weren't all those students infected back then?
I’m wondering when they will start recording secondary infections, accurately. I know of a teacher (secondary) who had COVID back towards the start of the year. They now have it again, with all the same symptoms.
Baaaahhhhh · 11/10/2020 16:42

www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/facts/questions-answers-school-transmission

This is an interesting read.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2020 16:43

@Piggywaspushed

86 percent is really troubling though. That will be a lot lower in some school, most probably in the north in areas of disadvantage. That kind of low attendance will have as much impact as the dreaded part time / rota models.
.... "0.2% closed, 92% fully open and 90% children attending (94.7% is the usual rate and primary schools exceed that at 95%, secondary down at 86%)"

Primary school attendance is ~ normal levels

Secondary school down ~9%
Part of that low attendance will be parental choice, or indeeed student choice;
part will be due to awaiting tests and a tiny minority actually with positive tests

pt schools would be something imposed on parents
and so far it seems the majority of parents want / need schools to stay ft and accept that the price is a small minority of classes / schools being sent home

Additional absence rates in secondary would probably have to be much higher than 9% to cause pt school

OP posts:
IloveJKRowling · 11/10/2020 16:47

I’m wondering when they will start recording secondary infections, accurately. I know of a teacher (secondary) who had COVID back towards the start of the year. They now have it again, with all the same symptoms.

The Manaus article BigChoc linked to is alarming and anecdotally I know a number of people who think they had it in March and now getting same again. Some of whom lived in the same house of known positive cases in March (so very likely it was it) and now getting positive tests. Problem is, people were only tested if they ended up in hospital (pretty much) for a period.

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2020 16:48

This is a data & statistics thread, along with analysis of data

Cherry-picked and completely unconfirmed anecdata add nothing of value, whether intended for denial or doom

OP posts:
CoffeeandCroissant · 11/10/2020 16:50

I don't know the current breakdown of positive tests between student year groups, but if it is predominantly first year students testing positive, then obviously they were not students back in March.

Piggywaspushed · 11/10/2020 16:52

I am sure they would bigchoc but any way you look at it, a lot of secondary school kids are experiencing significant disruption.

Baaaahhhhh · 11/10/2020 16:52

Part of that low attendance will be parental choice, or indeeed student choice; part will be due to awaiting tests and a tiny minority actually with positive tests

More students will also stay home with "just a cold". No-one wants anyone sneezing on them at the moment. Pariah status. I think there has been a slight shift towards staying home for a couple of days, when under normal circumstances the societal norm would have been to battle through and go in regardless.