Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

"He ignored medical issues!"

Well he did say this:

People point out that we must not lose sight of the indirect harms of Covid-19. They are absolutely right. We need to keep elective surgeries and non-urgent services open for as long as we can; we need to keep cancer treatment and diagnostic services going; and we need to continue to provide mental health services. And importantly, we need people to come forward for that care when they need it – and we know that, during the first peak, fear of the virus put many off from doing so.

The best way we can do this is to keep the number of Covid-19 cases down. If cases rise dramatically the NHS will need to focus more on dealing with the life threatening situations immediately in front of them; this can mean freeing up staff and space by postponing other non-urgent procedures and treatments. We need to help the NHS by keeping Covid-19 numbers low; and in turn the NHS will be there for us, our families and loved ones.

@Nellodee

At my large secondary, we had a big increase in the amount of staff absence between the beginning and the end of last week. If staff absence doubles at the same rate as cases and the insistence that schools stay open at all costs continues, it's touch and go whether we will make it to half term before we start having to teach merged groups in the halls. If it doesn't happen before half term, it is likely to afterwards, unless the level 3 restrictions are sufficient to bring spread down on their own.

This is very familiar. Sorry if people don't want to hear the reality or object to it on a 'data thread'.

To those posters, when you become MN admin, you can direct the posts of others. I seriously do not know who you think you are.

@Cattermole - you could try contacting the Zoe app people and see if you get an explanation? They replied to my friend when she contacted them (although that was over the summer)

@BigChocFrenzy

No, more testing in Richmond would be unlikely to give positives with postcodes in Uni cities

This disortion with stuents is probably happening in many boroughs, but would be higher in wealthier areas where most kids go away to Uni

When they return home, overall they are likely to be increasing infection there

Do you think the issue with student-sending areas could be conflated with the fact that numbers rose most sharply over the summer in wealthier areas (due perhaps to foreign holidays)?

I'm getting this on the dashboard

Oh yes, me too...

@BigChocFrenzy am not sure conflated was the right word there, let's just go for "is also an overlapping issue"!

@Piggywaspushed they mentioned on LBC late last week the govt were developing a new algorithm (because we know how much they love them) for shielders so maybe they will introduce it but a slimmed Dow version. I hope they do because it seems so unfair those that are very vulnerable are in cases of, for example teachers, forced to work in covid unsafe environments without masks eg.

Article in Telegraph today about "backwards tracing".
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/10/south-korea-style-backward-tracing-system-help-pinpoint-covid/

It's behind a paywall so

Backward tracing' how it works.Contact tracers working for NHS Test and Trace currently ask infectious people who they have been in contact with since becoming infectious. They then request contact details for anyone the person may have come into contact with so they can instruct them to self-isolate.The new "backward" contact tracing system, which will work in addition to current methods, will try to establish how someone became infected with Covid-19 in the first place, not just who they have given it to.Studies show the method increases the number of people who can be traced by a factor of two to three and helps to stem the virus. It is used by authorities in South Korea.

Naive of me to have thought this was already part of T&T

Interesting reastie. Thanks.

@AlecTrevelyan006

thumbsnap.com/Lkv4mC9z

we now have 6 weeks of steady increases in daily cases and daily deaths since the beginning of Sept.

That is easily enough time to compare the trend and rate of growth to what we saw in March.

This graph compares daily deaths by date reported for the last 6 weeks and the 6 weeks starting from the 13th March. The starting point in each case is similar at 10 and 13 deaths respectively. The way this has developed could not be more different.

Interesting graph. What do you think is happening? Slower doubling rate, younger age groups, treatment? I’m not sure but be good to hear more.

For one thing, there is a 4 week lag between infection and death.

The reputable scientists (SAGE and indie SAGE for example) are expecting rises in deaths from the increases in cases in September.

Also, admission rates nationwide have been rising, which tends to go, unfortunately, with rises in deaths.

Looks like we won’t be getting the Sunday numbers anytime soon....

The numbers have been on the dashboard for a few minutes.

65 deaths 15166 cases.

12872 cases

The differences between 1st wave and now are pretty obvious:

.Far younger age of infection now, which makes a massive difference to death rate
. Infections then are now estimated at 100-200k daily, possibly even higher
.R then was probably nearly 3, twice what it is now
.Far more knowledge to how to treat patients
.Far better understanding of which SD measures matter and when
.At least 8% and probably 11% on average now have immunity, which slows infection spread

BUT
infection is spreading to the elderly, so deaths are likely to rise

It is not surprising therefore that the 2nd wave of a novel virus has a much shallower gradient than the 1st
and very likely will have a lower peak of deaths

That is good news, as it is "flattening the curve"

It is still saying 15166 cases when I look at the dashboard.

12,872

UK today
(yesterday, day before are in brackets)

Cases 12,872 ... (15,166, 13,864)
Deaths 65 ......... (81, 87)

Last Sunday was 7,981 and 33

@ancientgran

It is still saying 15166 cases when I look at the dashboard.

They're making us wait the whole 15 mins 🤣

I'm still getting "The request is blocked" like earlier today?

If the R was so high in March, why weren't all those students infected back then?

All sounds a bit funny if some can see it and some can't and even if you can see it not seeing the same thing.
Mine has just changed, I wonder how that happens?

@Grausse - I wasn't so naive, but equally happy to hear it's happening at last!

@Itisasecret - there is only one thread for data facts and analysis; if you don't wish to be considerate, that's up to you, but if you make factually inaccurate comments on this thread you really must expect them to be called out.

Those interested in facts, the latest figures regarding school closures; 0.2% closed, 92% fully open and 90% children attending (94.7% is the usual rate and primary schools exceed that at 95%, secondary down at 86%): explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak.
As with all data so far, secondary schools show issues where primary schools do not.