Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Someone (sorry lost track) said it looked like things were calming down in Manchester but not in Merseyside. The Liverpool City Region has only been on local lockdown for 2 1/2 weeks vs Manchester which has had it since July. The Manchester spike I think has had a big student driver, which has been different to the LCR one.

Interestingly Liverpool initially managed to get on top of local outbreaks at a very localised street by street level (round Princes Park) but then once numbers got out of control that approach was under-resourced and we’re now where we are (and we got here very quickly).

They might be issuing joint letters right now but I suspect Steve Rotherham and Andy Burnham are further apart in viewpoint than people realise for what their respective regions need to happen.

@sirfredfredgeorge

If there were only 325 school situations identified that is so tiny compared to the number of schools it either means schools are ludicrously un-corona, or more likely they only had significant cases reported to them, in which case 77.5% seems low. Either way I don't think it really says very much either way.

.... Probably only counted if there is a cluster or outbreak:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-infection-prevention-and-control/epidemiological-definitions-of-outbreaks-and-clusters-in-particular-settings

1. Non-residential settings (for example a workplace, a school, a restaurant1)

Cluster criteria
Two or more test-confirmed cases of COVID-19 among individuals associated with a specific non-residential setting with illness onset dates within a 14-day period.
(In the absence of detailed information about the type of contact between the cases).

End of cluster
No test-confirmed cases with illness onset dates in the last 14 days.

Outbreak criteria
Two or more test-confirmed cases of COVID-19 among individuals associated with a specific non-residential setting with illness onset dates within 14 days, and one of:
• identified direct exposure between at least 2 of the test-confirmed cases in that setting (for example under one metre face to face, or spending more than 15 minutes within 2 metres) during the infectious period of one of the cases
• when there is no sustained local community transmission - absence of an alternative source of infection outside the setting for the initially identified cases

I've updated the breakout by council for councils in England here
www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/

Up to Oct 5th - latest date with reliable data given lag etc.

26,896 for France.
www.santepubliquefrance.fr/dossiers/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-chiffres-cles-et-evolution-de-la-covid-19-en-france-et-dans-le-monde

Thanks @littleowl1 that’s very helpful!

So from a quick scan, only one borough falling (Cornwall) and one staying flat (Isle of Wight) - all others rising week on week.

France had 5,000 new hospitalisations over the last 7 days

Tests have 11% positivity

Belgium

has 9% test positivity
and 14-day incidence of 310 / 100,000
Both increasing

https://epistat.wiv-isp.be/covid/covid-19.html

Indeed.

I’m going to put 5p on them canning the watchlist altogether on Monday - i assume to be replaced with the traffic light system mentioned in the media. But let’s see.

@ceeveebee what was your inside tip? Do tell!

@littleowl1 I think the daily stats are going to be either stood down, or restructured. (Merged with flu data and relaunched weekly, is my suspicion.)

Oh it was a failed joke!! My next post was pretending to be a photo of their computer blowing up!

@Cattermole how could they be merged with flu data? Do you mean presented together?

@ceeveebee
It's no good, you'll just have to make one up, or you're going to get people keep asking.

Re 325 schools-
Well at least 400 schools in greater Manchester alone have reported cases. Mostly individual, some with a few but not necessarily connected, other than teacher outbreaks which appears to be a bit of a thing and can easily close a school (poor teachers)
No official data but the MEN is collating the info daily- is relying on people to let them know so there’s probably many more.

Ok ok
I have heard that they are going to discontinue to dashboard, and instead engrave the figures on a paving stone outside Westminster, every 4th Sunday at 11pm

Ah I saw that pic! And nearly spat wine across the table I laughed so hard!

This thread has been so busy this eve. Great chats, great laughs and great data and analysis. We should make it Saturday eve slot with a glass of wine, waiting for the Commodore 64 to spit out the data.

Night folks. Sleep tight. Still laughing at some of those posts. Just priceless. Nice to have a hearty laugh amidst all the troubling news. Night all x

*"France had 5,000 new hospitalisations over the last 7 days

Tests have 11% positivity"*

Do we know UK positivity and trends therein Big Choc? I never seem to be able to find those figures, (though I have read about debates about denominators, so must have seen them somewhere!). And is there a breakdown by region - again, I seem to remember having seen some reference but can't remember where!

@PineappleUpsideDownCake

Wow thats shocking about schools. Why do they keep claiming schools are safe...

Not only that, they are forcing parents to send their children in with threats of fines.

@Cattermole that’s very interesting. What makes you think so?

Interesting thread on track and trace by Michael Savage from the Observer:

Upshot: some v senior public health officials think Serco call centres aren’t needed at all. New issues cropping up:

- Clusters of students recorded at home address, actually 100s of miles away in halls
- Families contacted a mad no. of times (I heard a case of c.100 calls!)

- 68.6% close contacts reached by national Test and Trace.
- 97.1% for local health protection teams - & they tend to deal with more complex cases.
Full thread:
mobile.twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1315023489238212610

@BigChocFrenzy

The account from Manaus is very sobering.... More information on re-infection will be critical, in particular whether the second infection is generally milder.

- 97.1% for local health protection teams - & they tend to deal with more complex cases.

To be fair, "complex" cases passed to local health protection teams are hardly complex. They include outbreaks in care homes, prisons, homeless hostels or schools:

publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/06/25/contact-tracing-complex-cases-through-nhs-test-and-trace/

If we cannot reach 100% of contacts in a prison or care home setting, then we have got a real problem.

On Manaus -

I have also seen both articles and I have tried to find the latest numbers for Manaus but I could not get hold of the info.

According to google consolidator, whole of State of Amazonas (including Manaus) is reporting around 800-900 cases and 5-8 deaths a day. It doesn't yet look like the second wave (i.e. the numbers are lower than what we are seeing in some of the UK regions).

I have also read an interesting view on herd immunity in the socially distant word. Herd immunity helps to eventually get R under 1 (potentially - just under 1), however the herd may still be infected from outside and people may die. People moving across the country (students, tourists, holiday returners) may bring the disease back to the partially immune herd and while the chain of transmissions might eventually die down through a mixture of social distancing measures and pre-existing immunity (at key interlocks within the herd - e.g. healthcare workers / supermarket and hospitality employees, etc), there may still be sizeable outbreaks along the way (e.g. within families or extended communities).

I thin I will be following the numbers for Brazil and State of Amazonas.

@Wemayhavemetbefore

*"France had 5,000 new hospitalisations over the last 7 days

Tests have 11% positivity"*

Do we know UK positivity and trends therein Big Choc? I never seem to be able to find those figures, (though I have read about debates about denominators, so must have seen them somewhere!). And is there a breakdown by region - again, I seem to remember having seen some reference but can't remember where!

.... Our World in data graph of UK tests positivity is linked in the OP, colour-coded graph

Looks to be 3-5% atm

ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR

However, massive regional variations, with Liverpool about 25% iirc