Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Manaus

Up to 66% with antibodies
2nd highest deaths / million in the world if it were a country

Very worrying in a city with so few elderly people, only 6% aged 60+
Totally different demographics to Western European countries
e.g. in Germany, > 25% are aged 60+

https://www.bmfsfj.de/blob/113952/83dbe067b083c7e8475309a88da89721/aeltere-menschen-in-deutschland-und-in-der-eu-englisch-data.pdf

The fact is that Manaus is starting to see cases and deaths rising, looking like the early stages of the 2nd wave in Europe

• so doesn't look like having herd immunity yet

Herd immunity is generally thought to be around 70% for Covid, but with "overshoot" caused by not having it by vaccine, may be some way higher

If I get chance this week I'll have a look around a few council sites to see if any others have better detail for their area like Liverpool.

So far the only other one I've found is Bolton.
www.boltonjsna.org.uk/coronavirus

They appear to be doing a weekly report similar to the PHE one.

It does include a %postivity rate (hurrah). The most recent report which is dated 7th and has data for the previous week to 1st October states its currently running at 15.9%. (The previous week was 12.3% and the one prior to that was 11.7%) So again we are seeing a pattern of increasing positivity.

@SheepandCow

Thanks ONS people. It sounds consistent then.

Is Liverpool airport open? Do people tend to travel by public transport to and from the airport?

I flew from Liverpool Airport and back in early Sept. It was far quieter than usual so easier to distance, although still not perfect when boarding, etc.
I think most people travel by car though as public transport is not easy, the nearest rail station is about 3 miles away. We had to quarantine so just went airport to car to home

Blackburn:
In the week ending 1nd of October, 15.2% of tests taken by our residents were positive.

Both Blackburn and Burnley council direct me to a government data site which is giving me a wonderful security warning that

"If you visit this site, attackers could try to steal information like your passwords, emails, or credit card details."

FAB.

@RedToothBrush

If I get chance this week I'll have a look around a few council sites to see if any others have better detail for their area like Liverpool.

So far the only other one I've found is Bolton.
www.boltonjsna.org.uk/coronavirus

They appear to be doing a weekly report similar to the PHE one.

It does include a %postivity rate (hurrah). The most recent report which is dated 7th and has data for the previous week to 1st October states its currently running at 15.9%. (The previous week was 12.3% and the one prior to that was 11.7%) So again we are seeing a pattern of increasing positivity.

Here's Richmond: www.datarich.info/covid-19/#COVID19local

Blackpool:
In the week ending 2 October, 11% of tests were positive

Knowsley Outbreak Management Board Update
8 October, 2020:
Within the preceding seven days, there had been 831 positive COVID-19 tests in Knowsley (up from 551 in the previous seven-day period). Around 15.1% of tests in Knowsley are currently coming back as positive (compared to 11.3% a week ago).

The rate of infection in Knowsley (as at 5 October 2020) was 601.1 per 100,000 people (compared to 273.7 per 100,000 a week ago).

It was noted that the data clearly shows that there are now uncontrolled levels of community transmission within Knowsley.

There are no specific geographical hot spots in Knowsley, as cases of the virus are spread across the borough (slightly higher numbers are clustered around main population centres – towns – as would be expected).

There is a broad age range of people presenting with the virus with large numbers of working age people testing positive.

The data shows that an increasing number of residents within the over 65/vulnerable category are now testing positive. This will continue to be monitored closely.

Hospital data shows that the number of admissions due to COVID-19 is rising. In the St Helens and Knowsley Hospital Trust, the number of beds occupied by COVID-19 patients had doubled in the last seven days to 57 patients (up from 27 a week ago).

Catching up on today's thread I noticed earlier it's finally been officially acknowledged that it's more a vascular (and inflammatory) disease? That's good news. It's been evident for months but (certainly at least in the UK) kept being ignored. Accurate understanding is important.

I wonder with underlying conditions data. Is it possible mental health conditions actually are relevant. Research has shown patients with mental health diagnoses often have their physical symptoms dismissed. Perhaps these patients weren't taken seriously at an early stage? We know that early treatment gives better chance of survival.

I'm confused about the Richmond theory. Why would students from Richmond give their home address but students from elsewhere not? I suspect it's more likely that Richmond genuinely is seeing increased numbers (and more testing). Perhaps because Heathrow airport is nearby.

COVID-19 DATA FOR HALTON

There have been 475 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Halton residents in the last 7 days (to 6th October)
The 7-day infection rate per 100,000 population (based on the 7 days to 6th October) is 370 per 100,000 population
Our weekly rate of positive cases has increased in the last week, as we have seen across all local authorities in Cheshire & Merseyside.

www.lancashire.gov.uk/covidweekly/
Report dated 7th October (last week in brackets)

Blackburn with darwen 14.8% (14%)
Blackpool 14.2% (13%)
Burnley 19.3% (17.9%)
Chorley 10.6% (9.1%)
Fylde 12.8% (11.6%)
Hyndburn 16.1% (16.3%)
Lancaster 12.8% (11.4%)
Pendle 16.3% (16.1%)
Preston 16.5% (15.5%)
Ribble Valley 14.5% (13.6%)
Rossendale 15.8% (14.5%)
South Ribble 13.2% (11.4%)
West Lancashire 15.2% (14.2%)
Wyre 10.9% (10.7%)

Enough for tonight, as each one of these is search:

Council Name Coronavirus - hunt the horrors of council website to see if they have data which not all of them do.

Will try and get the whole of the NW done tomorrow.

Thanks everyone for all your work with the data and for sharing it

@SheepandCow

Catching up on today's thread I noticed earlier it's finally been officially acknowledged that it's more a vascular (and inflammatory) disease? That's good news. It's been evident for months but (certainly at least in the UK) kept being ignored. Accurate understanding is important.

I wonder with underlying conditions data. Is it possible mental health conditions actually are relevant. Research has shown patients with mental health diagnoses often have their physical symptoms dismissed. Perhaps these patients weren't taken seriously at an early stage? We know that early treatment gives better chance of survival.

I'm confused about the Richmond theory. Why would students from Richmond give their home address but students from elsewhere not? I suspect it's more likely that Richmond genuinely is seeing increased numbers (and more testing). Perhaps because Heathrow airport is nearby.

.... The Richmond article upthread referred to their local health authorities receiving the data for "their" infections, but finding a lot of postcodes were of Uni towns and cities, not Richmond

Presumably students, who of course may have since moved back home, or stayed at Uni

Article suggested some other London booroughs might have this too

I'm confused about the Richmond theory. Why would students from Richmond give their home address but students from elsewhere not? I suspect it's more likely that Richmond genuinely is seeing increased numbers (and more testing). Perhaps because Heathrow airport is nearby

Not just in Richmond.
Some uni students are giving their “home” address and not the address where they are living so is skewing the figures in different towns.

Many teen students consider that "home" is where their parents live
and that their termtime digs are just temporary

@Oliversmumsarmy

I'm confused about the Richmond theory. Why would students from Richmond give their home address but students from elsewhere not? I suspect it's more likely that Richmond genuinely is seeing increased numbers (and more testing). Perhaps because Heathrow airport is nearby

Not just in Richmond.
Some uni students are giving their “home” address and not the address where they are living so is skewing the figures in different towns.

That's what I mean. The issue wouldn't presumably be any more of a particular thing in Richmond (or anywhere else in London) than elsewhere.

Students don't just come from London. They come from all parts of the UK.

So if Richmond's figures are skewed because of that, so must we assume is everywhere.

I'd say Richmond's increase is quite simply more testing. Perhaps also the proximity to Heathrow.

Sadiq Khan has been warning about London's risks for weeks. He's been largely ignored by the government (and media) but he knows his city.

No, more testing in Richmond would be unlikely to give positives with postcodes in Uni cities

This disortion with stuents is probably happening in many boroughs, but would be higher in wealthier areas where most kids go away to Uni

When they return home, overall they are likely to be increasing infection there

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-54494241
2 care homes with significant outbreaks and deaths in West Lothian and Edinburgh.
Over 50 residents and carers, testing positive in one since 25th September. Delays in getting test results of up to 9 days.

It's so awful what's happened - and is still happening in care homes. I'd hoped lessons had been learned from the first wave. I suspect without proper containment of Covid there's only so much that can be done?

Would it be too impractical to set-up some form of temporary live-in accommodation for selected staff (those without young children to care for at home)?

Care homes really need to be in a sort of self isolation bubble as much as possible.

@RedToothBrush, Bristol city council do a biweekly summary with positivity rates:

www.bristol.gov.uk/crime-emergencies/covid-19-data-including-cases-in-bristol-and-r-number-for-the-south-west

Positivity jumped from 3.2% on Tuesday to 6% on Friday.

Also of concern in the Bristol reports is the national track and trace figures. 69% of positive cases were followed by the National Test and Trace system. Of these 69%, the National Track and Trace system had only managed to get in touch with 58% of the contacts given. I think I'm right in saying that's just 40% (0.69 x 0.58) of positive cases successfully tracked.

Bedford and Central Beds do a very detailed weekly report with positivity rates and positive test per ward red. It goes on Facebook, for example.

Cheshire East figures:
www.cheshireeast.gov.uk/council_and_democracy/council_information/coronavirus/latest-covid-19-figures-for-cheshire-east.aspx

These are the most recent data from the Cheshire and Merseyside Directors of Public Health 7 and 14 day daily dashboard. Using data from 5 October 2020, there have been:

549 positive cases in the previous 7 days
285 positive cases in the 7 days up to 25 September
Rate of positive cases per 100,000 population in the previous 7 days = 142.9
For several weeks over the summer the number of positive cases in Cheshire East remained very low whilst other neighbouring areas saw increases. Now, we too have seen our positive cases rise steadily over the last few weeks and we are an Area of Concern on the national Local Authority Watchlist.

We ask all of our residents to continue to protect themselves and others by maintaining social distancing. Think Hands, Face, Space. Remember the Rule of Six when gathering indoors or outdoors.

Bugger, sorry wrong thread I'll ask @MNHQ to bin it

Ignore that, it is the right thread, but I seam to have left my brain in bed!

Cheshire West and Chester cases by ward (inc map)
app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmFlZjVhN2UtM2Y5Ni00MWE5LTg3NGMtNjQyZmFlZDNlODYyIiwidCI6ImNkYjkyZDEwLTIzY2ItNGFjMS1hOWIzLTM0ZjRmYWFhMjg1MSJ9

and the question I want answering is why don't Cheshire East do that??