Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
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The high incidence in food processing plants is thought to be partly due to very cold temperatures, fridges etc

as well as shouting, physical exertion, close proximity, poor adherence to SFD

A lot of that would apply to chefs - especially shouting !

SD

littleowl with chefs, also consider long shifts often in confined space and early in the pandemic, little social distancing or mask wearing and often a bit of shouting.. Also, many chef work under extractor canopies, which could mean they are exposed to everyone's breath as it sucked out of the building.

Kitchens are very very hot, though! I think it is probably lack of ventilation. I'd like to think it isn't lack of handwashing!!

I hate it when the daily cases are late coming in. Makes me nervous.

Re chefs and restaurant kitchens, a lot of them are also in basements etc with what I imagine is poor ventilation. Close working with lots of team members needing to talk loudly / shout to communicate. I'm not surprised.

Looks like PHE are trying to get some consistency in student reporting / records

Public Health England@PHE_uk

Are you a ‪#student‬ with symptoms of ‪#COVID19‬?

Book a test through the ‪#NHSCOVID19App‬ or the NHS website:
‪http://nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus…‬

Put your term time address when filling in your details

Make sure you register with a local GP:
http://nhs.uk/service-search/find-a-GP‬

.

I hate it when the daily cases are late coming in. Makes me nervous

Yes and over 2 hours late now

Good point from Richard about a discrepancy that has been niggling at me too:

Richard@RP131

I'm confused why the numbers of tests in the surveillance reports seem to be around the 500K-600K per week while the dashboard has number of tests at around 200K per day?

I know former is people and latter is tests performed but I thought they'd match closer.

E.g. up till last week the surveillance reports had a cumulative people tested column by region.
Here's their running differences:
< image 1 >

The column has gone as of this week's report,
but I can infer similar numbers from positivity

But then the dashboard shows "reported date" numbers that generally come to about 200K per day.
< image 2 >

So nearly 2.5x bigger than the surveillance report numbers?
I assume I'm missing something obvious!
< I've been missing it too ! >

< drums fingers >
Oh, come ONNNN !

I'd love to see the reasoning why "Learning Disability and or Autism" made it into the list.

Anecdata, but just occurred to me that there was an death of a younger adult with LD fairly early in March; that might have meant this flagged it because I seem to recall deaths had only been older adults until then.

Maybe they're just being extra careful because there's something in some way anomalous and they're triple checking it, after last weekend.

(Or Bert had to go home for his tea and forgot to give Sandra the daily password.)

Over 2 hours late, I'm getting nervous now!

Maybe the Commodore 64 froze while they were trying to upload that .xls document after transcribing it from runes scraped on a cave wall.

Sweepstake? I am going for 20,000 which includes 3,000 from yesterday that was on a piece of paper that was accidentally eaten by their dog...

iirc, there was uproar among orgs for the disabled back in March about suggestions some patients with severe autism or LDs would not be put on ventilators, or receive certain treatments that would be too distressing

There was then a sharp reversal / denial from the NHS that they would be denied any treatment

So would explain monitoring of patients with autism, LDs, past MH - in case they needed to prove treatment was to a high standard

@BigChocFrenzy - the thread moves too fast! I quoted earlier that they're switching the calculation to count people tested, even if they've been tested in previous weeks. The sentence was somewhere in the surveillance report.

I've just seen the Matt Parker video on this special spreadsheet...

Bangor in N Wales just gone into lockdown.

Looks like being our theme tune on many evenings

"Oh, why are we waiting ?"

I do hope they haven't found yet another bunch of lost positives ....

Ok my bet in the sweepstake: 18k.

The daily hospital admission file is running late on the NHS website.

I am wondering if the reason for the delay may be due to the "healthcare" part of the dashboard (hospital admissions/patients in hospitals/etc).

... or, of course, it may be another screw up with the case numbers.

PHE and DHSC twitter accounts are up and running so it doesn't look like a server/IT issue.

[quote MRex]@BigChocFrenzy - the thread moves too fast! I quoted earlier that they're switching the calculation to count people tested, even if they've been tested in previous weeks. The sentence was somewhere in the surveillance report.[/quote]
....
but surely there won't be that many people counted twice or more to have a discrepancy of 2.5 x

I'm going to take the optimistic angle (but only bet 5p) and go for 10k and it's late because they're assuming a lost sofa.