Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

"Wearing face masks in all offices and working environments should be mandatory unless you are working alone, the British Medical Association (BMA) has urged. Publishing recommendations to safeguard public health amid the pandemic, the UK doctors’ trade union body said the public was in danger of losing faith in coronavirus measures due to the government’s “inconsistent” messaging."

And yet, even they are not pushing for this in secondary schools/unis. I really wonder why.

I feel like it’s another game to avoid the Sunday headlines. I am going to put my phone in a drawer for the evening!

Maybe this time cases are ridiculously low, so they're triple checking the numbers in surprise. That would be nice. I'm going to spend these few moments of data absence being optimistic, happy and calm.

So finally had time to sit down and look at the PHE reports.

They have stopped doing the report which gives details of the Watchlist areas.

That means there are no longer postivity % graphs for the worst hit areas....

@RedToothBrush
Very annoying.
Always been available on the welsh stats dashboard

Didn't they do some maintenance on the site yesterday? Do you think they've broken it?

TheSunIsStillShining
This regulation came in last Monday here in Berlin + (of course) opening windows.
When people have to discuss sth involving sharing a monitor it's either masks, teams or go to a meeting room and use a big screen.

Its not broken.

They've moved it to a new location with no report for the watch list areas. This had council level detail I've not seen elsewhere.

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports

I'm wondering if they have suddenly remembered there's another sofa!

@Prokupatuscrakedatus

TheSunIsStillShining This regulation came in last Monday here in Berlin + (of course) opening windows. When people have to discuss sth involving sharing a monitor it's either masks, teams or go to a meeting room and use a big screen.

"Sorry if I've missed it but do we know what counts as an 'underlying condition'."

JK I posted this upthread

The NHS detailed statistics for Covid deaths with "existing conditions" includes ALL the conditions they monitor,
not just those that significantly increase risk, or indeed increase risk at all

So it includes e.g. those with autism, LDs, past treatment for MH as well as asthma

The "just flu" brigade keep quoting "only xxx deaths under 40/50/60 without existing conditions"
and hence not just cherrypicking the younger & lifelong healthy section of the community, but excluding some of those at no higher risk for their age

Scroll down here to see the regular reports for NHS deaths by ethnicity, age, condition etc on

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

e.g. most recent is

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/10/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-8-October-2020-weekly-file.xlsx

Oops sorry, Prokup -no idea why I quoted your post instead of JK's

@BigChocFrenzy
Key phrase is "underlying conditions they monitor". This actually looks like quite an arbitrary list.
We know from other studies that gut bacteria has a potentially big impact on MH and how virus infections play out. Yet crohn's and colitis and IBD are not on the list.

And I'd love to see the reasoning why "Learning Disability and or Autism" made it into the list.

1009 new positive cases and 9 deaths in Scotland, with 14.1% positive big newly tested.
What caught my eye is the positive cases are decreasing slightly in the 15 - 24 age group, but increasing in the over 45's, who today account for approx 40% of new positives.

And on chicken pox, I had shingles a week after DD had chicken pox. Speaking to the doctor in hospital, although you can't catch shingles from chicken pox, he'd seen this happen severe times and felt that being close to someone with CP could help trigger shingles.

BCF
I was wondering about this "underlying conditions list", bc. neither DD (ADHS/AS) or DS (AS/ADHS) seem in anyway more prone to infectious deseases than NT persons.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@BigChocFrenzy
Key phrase is "underlying conditions they monitor". This actually looks like quite an arbitrary list.
We know from other studies that gut bacteria has a potentially big impact on MH and how virus infections play out. Yet crohn's and colitis and IBD are not on the list.

And I'd love to see the reasoning why "Learning Disability and or Autism" made it into the list.[/quote]
...
It includes some conditions very relevant to Covid
plus maybe the non-relevant conditions they normally monitor, or decided to monitor, to make sure that e.g. those with autism or LDs or past MH receive good care

However, it is being misused by people who want to minimise deaths and hence choose to omit anyone with one of those conditions, to other them

It is not ok even for relevant health conditions, especially as v few are terminal, so most people have years or decades of life ahead in normal times

I might occasionally reassure myself that only XXX people under 70 have died in Germany,
but I'd never think only YYY people without any conditions under 70
In fact the RKI doesn't give out those figures anyway, only totals wrt age & sex, which is what I find best.

If it's any help I think the map is updated already

@BigChocFrenzy
I would say that RKI is okay as long as the data is there for research purposes. I tend to think that they might have gotten this nailed :)

@WhyNotMe40
I'm trying not to draw any conclusions from that or I'd be very unhappy. Our area is getting bluer by the day.

Mine too. My area cases have almost doubled since yesterday

The map only goes up to 6th Oct.

It’s to 6 October by test date (because the last 3 days are not yet finalised and will change) so it’s as up to date as it can be without understating the figures

Been offline all day and jsut catching up now. Some amazing links and resources @BigChocFrenzy

I don't want to drag up convos that have kinda already closed and thread has moved on from - but great detail on the address situ - I will watch the Richmond case with interest this week for developments.

Also @rosesblooming - you make a very valid point. Currently over two thirds of councils in ENgland have 7 day new case rates of over 50 per 100k. Is this rate they will have to abandon the watchlist as the whole country will be on it soon enough.

@Piggywaspushed on occupational risk, there was a fascinating study done in Spring about the breakout of deaths by occupation. I appreciate its quite old but it was really astonishing reading. Outside healthworkers, taxis and chefs were highest. Taxi drivers make sense - small confined area with high turnover of people. Chefs stumped me initially though - I came to conclusion it must be the fridges - longer virus life in a fridge? Having waitressed at uni I remember the chefs were in and out of these huge industrial, walk in fridges getting produce. I could be wrong but I am pretty careful about car travel and fridges now! I tried to find the link to it - it was reported on BBC news at the time but I cant source. If i come across it again I will put it on this thread and tag you.

In other news - it seriously puts me on edge when the govt data release is late. Phhh.

Yes I am now very suspicious and expecting yet another large increase with another bodged reason for having underreported earlier in the week....

Sorry I feel I need to qualify that.

I have no evidence on my theory about fridges. I have heard it anecdotally being mentioned but I have never looked into it. So that is just my opinion and it is not proven fact!

I know that one littleowl. Thank you though. It is trotted out quite a lot as evidence to teachers. But it does seem that they might want to update it : even if only to show measures have made some jobs safer.
Chefs work in teams without ventilation in very close proximity, I'd guess.