Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@Grausse

Sorry completely off topic but I've just twigged that the Richmond you are all talking about isn't the one near me (Yorkshire). As you were.

When I moved down south a friend asked if he could stay because he was going to Richmond. I was somewhat surprised that he was choosing to do Liverpool to Surrey to Richmond, Yorkshire, but thought it was up to him. I asked him on about the third time he did this.

Richmond, Yorkshire was where we stayed for our year 6 residential, and I'd never heard of the London one.

The problem with saying that we do not want an emotional component to our news is that the effectiveness of the governments response to the virus is intrinsically linked to the faith that the population has in that response.

We live in a time when people are enormously influenced by social media and the vast amounts of lies and propaganda that are found there. I am not certain that you can combat social media without appealing to emotion.

Anyway, to change subject , since my belief that we should have some identities to put to victims is clearly not widely shared (contemplates qualitative vs quantitative data), is anyone watching Andy Burnham getting cross (partly with the women chatting about their dresses not muting their mics..) on BBC News?

Eldest had CP and shingles.

Youngest has had Scarlet Fever twice but no CP.

Even when his sister had shingles he did not get Chicken Pox.

We may vaccinate in the next year of so if he doesn't catch it.

The problem with saying that we do not want an emotional component to our news is that the effectiveness of the governments response to the virus is intrinsically linked to the faith that the population has in that response

I am completely turned off by such things, as they simply remind me that society doesn't care about the things which are a risk to me and my family. That's why facts are the way to go with news, they talk the same to everyone and are much harder to manipulate and be dismissed as manipulation.

Richmond, Yorkshire was where we stayed for our year 6 residential, and I'd never heard of the London one.

Earls orchard?

Richmond Yorkshire is Sunaks constituency.

We don't think facts can be manipulated??

I actually think my original post has been misconstrued.

@Piggywaspushed
not specifically today however he has been raging all week. With good reason IMO. He is sticking up for northern businesses! However it's always been clear that although influential and very good at the media rounds the actual power he has is actually minimal. He (and other northern city mayors) say that they 'won't accept' any restrictions imposed without proper consultation but I don't think they have any power to actually refuse them. Surely it's in the government's best interests to get them all on board though.

(sorry I'll shut up I know this is supposed to be a data and numbers thread)

Regarding Richmond upon Thames, the question about university students affecting rates is speculative at the moment: www.richmondandtwickenhamtimes.co.uk/news/18782488.richmond-council-leader-speaks-covid-19-case-surge/.
I'd expect they'll chase up answers by next week. It could be use of GP address driving infections, that was speculated to be the issue with army cases. It's also possible that people have driven to collect their teenager because of rising cases and brought them home infected. Or that usual mix of bad luck, a few idiots not quarantining, rainy weather etc etc etc.

@coffeeabdteav
Prior House. Was owned by Lancashire CC for residentials I think.

@Piggywaspushed
I know exactly what you mean. I think the media has pushed what they want people to believe. They are using facts, but often the way it's presented gives the narrative they want to share.

For example, I don't for a moment believe all the "children don't spread in school" research that was pushed through August, and rarely had any challenge, even when you could see the research had issues, was a fluke. Why didn't any of the media bring up that the research was often with smaller class sizes, and fewer children arround in total? Why didn't the media point out that the pictures of BJ sitting in a socially distanced class was not going to happen when there were 30 children in there?

@Piggywaspushed

Anyway, to change subject , since my belief that we should have some identities to put to victims is clearly not widely shared (contemplates qualitative vs quantitative data), is anyone watching Andy Burnham getting cross (partly with the women chatting about their dresses not muting their mics..) on BBC News?

Totally to change the subject he really is a bit of alright isn't he?

Ahem! Numbers and data thread here!

I don't think we've copied in Tim Specter/Zoe app new video yet?

Ilove obesity is certainly an 'underlying cause' however the majority of the obese would not expect to die this year. My sister is clinically obese and just completed the SD London Marathon in just under five hours, in her 40s, no obesity related problems (no T2 or high BP) two young children, but she would be 'othered' if she got it. I do wonder if there should be more use of the years lost data.

@PrayingandHoping - the Zoe data is really interesting this week. Even given all the potential issues with Zoe ( self selecting etc) it’s a big drop from an increase of 100% the week before to only 10% increase.

Sorry pressed too soon - and some hope if it’s correct things are levelling off in the north west, although worrying that NE and Yorkshire still rocketing.

I also heard a Gateshead ( I think labour councillor - spoke very well) on radio 4 this morning who stated they have evidence that rates may be slowing there as well - unfortunately he didn’t specify what indicators/ by how much.

@Mrex - heading back to CP briefly. I understood the reason it wasn’t added to childhood vaccinations here was largely to do with the MMR scandal - it was being actively considered adding it in, particularly when shingles vaccine came online. There were some papers on this ( I read up a lot when I was deciding to get my DC vaccinated ). However there were concerns about adding another vaccine when parents were already nervous ( although the argument re older population and shingles also played into it to an extent).

Wales update

627 cases - holding steadish.
17 deaths highest for a long time BUT see below. Is till a lot of deaths for a small area sadly.

Public Health Wales said on Saturday a further 21 deaths had been reported, taking the total number of related deaths since the beginning of the pandemic to 1,667.

But it added that the large increase was the result of a delay in incorporating 17 deaths that occurred in the Cwm Taf Morgannwg health board area between 3 and 7 October.

@littleowl1 I had wondered if they had a way to take the student cases out of the equation?

Hmm I know 4.15 is not that late but the stats have been updated at bang on 4pm all week. Anyone else get suspicious when they are suddenly a bit later..

Ha! I’d just had the same thought ceevee

@Frazzled2207
Yes rates per 100,000 are reducing in Caerphilly, Newport and Llanelli but not enough to remove local restrictions yet, according to Mark Drakeford yesterday. Merthyr numbers still quite high. Numbers in Ceredigion and Gwynedd in recent weeks driven by Aberystwyth and Bangor students. Swansea and Bridgend cases rising. The transmission within the Royal Glam Hospital is still affecting the Cwm Taf HB numbers too but assurances this week from the HB that it is all getting under control.

The Welsh T&T system is staffed by the local authorities and includes shoe leather. Plus the LAs work closely with WG and are involved in the decision making on introducing and easing restrictions. So is markedly different from England.
We shall see what the numbers do over the next few weeks.....

I think it's just the weekend lag, but last weekend was a bit of a shock.
Hope they haven't found another missing 16k, or forgotten how to use excel or something like that.

I get suspicious, always feel like someone’s taken a sharp intake of breath, sat down, picked up the red phone, pressed 1 for Bozza and asked him how he’d like to proceed.

Can’t imagine what the conversation went like when they realised they’d missed loads of positive cases!