Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

whats I won't even respond to that.

If you want to have an argument with me then fine. Please create a thread and we can do that.

This thread is absolutely not the place.

@Augustbreeze

Blow it won't post. Google "Where"s Dom?" If you need a small break from data and/or you like the "Where's Wally?" books!

Xmas presents sorted, thanks!

Where there is an outbreak and public health are arranging mass testing (such as is happening in Manchester) then they will be allocated to their uni address

When booking independently- hard to say because if I recall correctly the online test booking system doesn’t actually ask for your home address if you are booking at a drive-through or walk-in testing centre. It only asks for a postcode to show you the test centres near you, and it asks for your nhs number but that’s an optional question. And when i booked my DDs I accidentally used my name but her DOB and they didn’t question it, nor did they ask for ID. So I don’t know how they are then allocating them back?

When people were travelling miles to get tests where and how were those allocated?

It must be postcode, surely?

They have to be based on the postcode entered when booking the test surely? On my testing experience, there is no other way to do it.

@NeurotrashWarrior at the postcode they put it when they applied for their test....

So students could easily fill in their home postcode and not their uni postcode. You'd hope they are being told not to

Student addresses may be to do with which doctor you are registered with.
Most students register with a GP in their uni town, but you don't have to.
We chose not to for dd as we have a lovely (full!) local doctor and she hardly ever uses it, and our local one does very good telephone consultations very quickly.

When you register for a test, do you put in GP details?
Because most students change GP it wouldn't make much difference unless there's a lot of students in that area who have gone to universities where there is a covid problem.

And you do get areas where specific unis are more popular.

I suspect that some may have, however mobile units have been brought in for mass testing in halls.

Those in residential areas will most likely use the postcode of the house / flat they're in as they'd have to use it for various other things. Eg bus passes, banking etc.

"Where there is an outbreak and public health are arranging mass testing (such as is happening in Manchester) then they will be allocated to their uni address,"

Are we absolutely sure about this?

Because in the case of Richmond borough in London, to quote the Evening Standard "..an analysis of 412 positive cases in Richmond since September 20 found that out of 212 for which the council has postcodes, 49 of them were for places including Leeds, Exeter, Manchester and Durham." (My bolding.)

So no more deleting old tests, age the positivity rate should be more accurate.

Finally! Common sense has prevailed.

Thanks for spotting it, MRex.

Sorry - I didn’t mean to suggest that every single Manchester student would be allocated to Manchester. What I meant is that, after there had been a number of positives, the university then arranged a mass testing exercise, and the results of this exercise would be allocated to the uni accommodation.

twitter.com/Robspiked/status/1314522760140533765?s=19

First breakdown by useful school age I've seen so far. Looks positive for primary schools, definitely not for secondary schools.

@Witchend

Student addresses may be to do with which doctor you are registered with. Most students register with a GP in their uni town, but you don't have to. We chose not to for dd as we have a lovely (full!) local doctor and she hardly ever uses it, and our local one does very good telephone consultations very quickly.

When you register for a test, do you put in GP details?
Because most students change GP it wouldn't make much difference unless there's a lot of students in that area who have gone to universities where there is a covid problem.

And you do get areas where specific unis are more popular.

You put in the postcode for where you want to be tested, name, DOB, and NHS number if you have it (optional). There are also other questions about gender, ethnicity, occupation. You don’t enter your home address (unless it’s a postal test, for obvious reasons!) or GP details. And as I said above, I mixed up my name with be DDs DOB when I booked for her so they aren’t cross checking to NHS database as fas as I can tell.

@ohthegoats

Good spot, although I would like to see years 12 and 13 separate from students ideally.

@ohthegoats

twitter.com/Robspiked/status/1314522760140533765?s=19

First breakdown by useful school age I've seen so far. Looks positive for primary schools, definitely not for secondary schools.

Those are extracted from the ONS infection survey report -it was linked to above but here’s the full link again

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandwalesandnorthernireland9october2020

Local BBC did a piece on the way University of Nottingham are conducting their in-house COVID-19 testing on students.

Test kits (swab and spit) are sent to every students university address and retured to be PCR lab tested by the uni. Results sent via text and in-house care team at the uni are monitoring isolation based on the address the test was sent to.

They are testing all students once a week, apparently. Cost of £2 million.

Upshot is - results definately assigned to university address for the student

This is very clear from looking at the local map for Nottinghamshire - the positives are all concentrated in student accommodation areas.

[quote NeurotrashWarrior]@littleowl1 I googled it, sorry it's here:

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports[/quote]
....
Useful
I'll add that link to the next OP

@notevenat20

Is there yet an accepted explanation for why the restrictions in NW appear not to have worked at all? The number in hospital is doubling consistently every 11 or 12 days and has been since August 26.

Not sure it means they haven't worked at all. The doubling times would almost certainly be much quicker if there weren't any restrictions.

Reports from e.g. Richmond had their figures distorted by including Uni students with postcodes outside Richmond

because Uni students are counted where they are registered with GP, often still parents' home address

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/09/covid-in-england-latest-figures-suggest

Newly released papers reveal that behavioural science experts warned that only 18%-25% of people who needed to were self-isolating.

Others were still going out to work or to shop, even though they risked infecting others.

In a paper dated 16 September, they called for financial support primarily for low earners, but also in middle-income groups.

Food and help with obtaining medical and other supplies would also be essential, they said.

Non-Covid infectious disease cases down in England, data suggests

At least this helps a little:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/09/non-covid-infectious-disease-cases-down-in-england-data-suggests

From the common cold to chickenpox, there has been a substantial drop in the number of infections being reported to GPs
.....
According to the latest GP surveillance data for England

there were 1.5 cases of common cold for every 100,000 people during the week ending 6 October
– compared to 92.5 cases reported during the same week last year.

The rate of other non-Covid respiratory illnesses was also lower,
at 131 for every 100,000 people,
compared to 303 last year.

Influenza-like illness is also down,
at 131 cases for every 100,000 people, versus 303 cases in 2019.

Although there has been in increase since the start of the school term, for all of these illnesses,

infection rates remain below expected seasonal levels for this time of year,

the report by the Royal College of General Practitioners’ research and surveillance centre said.

I thought I was behind the times with that and you'd all been pouring over it since Thursday; glad to be of some use!

Newly released papers reveal that behavioural science experts warned that only 18%-25% of people who needed to were self-isolating.

That’s shocking!

That's really interesting Big, though longer term kids do need to catch those things to build immunity. Helpful for schools and other work places though as absences for those infections won't be happening.

There will be a bounce back in future years however.