Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

I guess the different between North and South is partly the exponential nature of the numbers. Once the virus is off, it’s off. Manchester Uni is pretty shocking though. 42%! I could not have foreseen that. It’s almost like cruise ships. Is it the ventilation or lack of.

It's very close proximity,
lots of shouting & singing
few following SD, because they are immortal

Apologies for the daily mail link, but this does go some way to explaining the lack of a daily sewage report:

www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8807693/What-loo-reveals-Scientists-believe-warning-Covid-outbreaks.html

Testing only started in the summer, it's currently only 44 sewage works (~30% of the population). This is a hugely experimental technique and it's very early days, I'd be very surprised if there's data in a publishable format anytime soon.

Hello everyone, long time lurker here, thankyou for these threads!

I'm in Birmingham, and though our numbers are high, I have been kind of expecting us to end up more like the North West, as I think our demographic is not so different.

Could it be that our council's testing strategy is having an impact?

www.birmingham.gov.uk/info/50233/support_for_residents_during_the_coronavirus_covid-19/2253/drop_and_collect_service

There was a positive case on our street, and council workers went door to door offering on the spot testing. We were out, so I only found out from a neighbour.

@DamnYouAutocucumber

Apologies for the daily mail link, but this does go some way to explaining the lack of a daily sewage report:

www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8807693/What-loo-reveals-Scientists-believe-warning-Covid-outbreaks.html

Testing only started in the summer, it's currently only 44 sewage works (~30% of the population). This is a hugely experimental technique and it's very early days, I'd be very surprised if there's data in a publishable format anytime soon.

.... I'm disappointed if it started so late

One of the things Sweden did right was to start early on their sewage !
They've had results recently - which predicted their rise in cases before it happened, so it's a very useful early warning system

@HoldingTight people are bonkers "so we can but you're advising we don't?"
Well yes. I mean looking both ways before you cross the road is advised but nobody forces you to...
I keep seeing FB posts and people's replies and thinking it's no bloody wonder the numbers are going up, basically unless something is banned and people are likely to be caught and fined, they're ignoring it

@WhatIsGinLiqueurAnyway
That would make sense. It sounds like Birmingham council are doing a very good job.

The view of the president of the Academy of Medical Sciences (Professor Sir Robert Lechler) on the 'Great Barrington Declaration':
acmedsci.ac.uk/more/news/navigating-covid-19-through-the-volume-of-competing-voices

Folks does anyone have insight into how positive tests of university students are recorded in the stats ie to what address (home/parensts address or uni address)? I was talking to someone yesterday who said the word on the street in their council was that high case numbers there were due to university students living away from home testing positive and the result being attributed to their home address. Anyone any insight on this?

I’m going to pour over the govt data disclaimers again today but I have never seen any mention of “address” methodology. (But they may have been updated since I last read them as this university issue is quite a recent phenomenon).

Anyone any insight?

Is there yet an accepted explanation for why the restrictions in NW appear not to have worked at all? The number in hospital is doubling consistently every 11 or 12 days and has been since August 26.

Sorry if I've missed this; as they've switched to a different format I notice there's no graphs on type of education setting?

Or have I missed it?

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/925324/WeeklyyFluanddCOVID-19reporttW41FINAL.pdf

Hey @NeurotrashWarrior - what website did you find that on? It doesn’t seem to be published on the usual surveillance reports website. Have you a link to the website it’s on?

@littleowl1

Folks does anyone have insight into how positive tests of university students are recorded in the stats ie to what address (home/parensts address or uni address)? I was talking to someone yesterday who said the word on the street in their council was that high case numbers there were due to university students living away from home testing positive and the result being attributed to their home address. Anyone any insight on this?

I’m going to pour over the govt data disclaimers again today but I have never seen any mention of “address” methodology. (But they may have been updated since I last read them as this university issue is quite a recent phenomenon).

Anyone any insight?

It wouldn't make sense; the high student numbers in Newcastle correlate to where the really dark areas are on the map which is where student accommodation is.

As a city you need to know where those cases are living in order to track and trace and also know the level of infection locally.

The U.K. map would look very different if it was home address.

I usually pull the surveillance reports from here: www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

But that latest one you have linked isn’t three so just wondering where they are publishing it.

I was wondering where the surveillance report was and then read the first line of last week's one.

From the 8th October they're handily merged a flu report with the Covid report and is now on a different place.

Handy as the 'missing' data isn't as easy to spot/ compare

@littleowl1 I googled it, sorry it's here:

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports

And @NeurotrashWarrior are you looking for the harts on page 19? Or different ones.

Yes I do agree that most must be allocating to a university address but I do wonder if there is a small but significant portion ending up allocated to home addresses. I would love to know their methodology. Who controls the address input - the student? Or PHE/track and trace?

I'm a little annoyed they've stopped publishing the breakdown in educational setting? Eg primary/ SN and secondary.

Is university classed as education setting?

@littleowl1

And *@NeurotrashWarrior* are you looking for the harts on page 19? Or different ones.

Yes I do agree that most must be allocating to a university address but I do wonder if there is a small but significant portion ending up allocated to home addresses. I would love to know their methodology. Who controls the address input - the student? Or PHE/track and trace?

Good point.

Unless it's going to be in slides??

Slides are there but shows the week 40 graphs.

Sorry, it's now in the slides. They've had a whole rejig.

littleowl, my mayor said some of the rise in my town was accounted for by uni students' home addresses being used. Vast numbers of our young people go to Nottingham for uni.

Thanks for the sewage link, from early August they were increasing beyond the 44, so it should have advanced.

DATA BIG NEWS - page 6 of the surveillance report: "Since week 40, positivity is calculated as the number of individuals testing positive during the week divided by the
number of individuals tested during the week. This approach accounts for the increasing number of individuals who will have been tested multiple times as the pandemic
progresses."
So no more deleting old tests, age the positivity rate should be more accurate.

littleowl I posted a tweet about thatba couple of weeks ago. Peston was suggesting this may be the case.

I guess it depends on which address is given. I don't know if any extra checks have been put in place.

I suppose tests carried out by a mobile testing unit that's been called to a hall or uni may be different to people booking one online?