Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Immunity for colds doesn't really last at all, since there are so many different cold rhinoviruses & coronaviruses;
hence why people with poorer immune systems can catch several colds per year

Flu immunity is also only for a given strain of flu and better obtained via vaccination

Research indicates that things like outside play - sunshine ! - muddy play, contact with animals, builds up general immunity too

@NeurotrashWarrior

I was wondering where the surveillance report was and then read the first line of last week's one.

From the 8th October they're handily merged a flu report with the Covid report and is now on a different place.

Handy as the 'missing' data isn't as easy to spot/ compare

Many thank! I had been confused too. This clears things up (in terms of how unclear they are on the government sites...)

Regarding postcodes having had to get tests myself the only info they have is your postcode.
Nothing stopping you putting in any postcode you like but surely in the first instance you will put the one that you’re in to get the closest test?

And if you want a postal test then again surely you’d use the address you’re actually at?

Never had to put in gp address. Which is in a different postcode to me anyway.

A lot of confusion in wales as a significant chunk of tests are from people “not normally resident in Wales” rather than assigned to a county. But nobody seems to know if this is students in Cardiff or English folk driving over the border for their closest test.

Ds is 6. Last year there was an outbreak of chicken pox around here whilst he was still at nursery. Almost all the kids got it.

He didn't get it.

Then a few kids went down with it when he was in reception.

He didn't get it.

He hasn't been in contact with other children for half this year. So i have actually started to wonder if this is a bad thing. And whether its storing up a bigger problem for the future. I'm really not sure how he's managed to avoid it tbh.

He may have had it with no symptoms which can occasionally happen.

You could get him vaccinated?

@RedToothBrush
We agreed with my husband that if our son doesn't catch the chickenpox naturally until he is 10 he'll get the vaccine for it. He got it in kindergarten when he was 6.

@RedToothBrush

Ds is 6. Last year there was an outbreak of chicken pox around here whilst he was still at nursery. Almost all the kids got it.

He didn't get it.

Then a few kids went down with it when he was in reception.

He didn't get it.

He hasn't been in contact with other children for half this year. So i have actually started to wonder if this is a bad thing. And whether its storing up a bigger problem for the future. I'm really not sure how he's managed to avoid it tbh.

I've had this with my kids and wondered if it was because I had wild chickenpox as a child and breastfed them for a couple of years each -- it was so weird that they didn't catch it on several occasions of close contact, that I did wonder if I had unintentionally conferred some (probably temporary) antibodies on them...

Reminder

Please keep discussion civil
Bunfights are in other threads thataway ======> 🤼‍♀️

Its something we will have to consider. But yeah its not good for us not to be exposed. When dh and i leave the world of sitting at home and never seeing anyone which working from home creates we are at risk.

We are going to have one hell of a wave of 'freshers flu' at some point.

Sorry, back to numbers, graphs and statistics... does anyone have a break down of hospitalisations by age? Does this exist?

Chickenpox vaccine before puberty is probably a good idea if they haven't caught it by then
Earlier vaccine of course if advised by your doctor

I feel one thing that drives the complacency and the 'just flu' brigade is that the stories of those who have died ( a growing number) have vanished and so they become statistics with 'underlying conditions'. Is that simply because hospitals aren't struggling -yet- so no healthworkers have recently died? Ghoulish as it may sound, it helps to put faces, names, occupation and so on to victims : most behavioural people would argue that ahs an impact on empathy and then behaviour.

On a separate but related note, are there any recent death stats beyond numbers, ages and ethnicity? Are those dying with underlying conditions people previously shielded? Do they ahve the conditions identified as necessitating shielding? Have they done an occupation survey recently, or were numbers too low?

Lots of questions !

@MotherOfDragonite

Sorry, back to numbers, graphs and statistics... does anyone have a break down of hospitalisations by age? Does this exist?

.... I've looked before for links to this for the OP, but I can't find any regular / recent reports for admissions by age, just by region or for deaths

Anyone ?

Could just be my area, but received a note from our school referencing "Local Outbreak Engagement Board", who, following renewed risk assessment from growing infections, have advised all local schools to now wear masks in all communal areas. Anyone else have anything similar? I know I could put this on school boards, but try to keep away from them!

@RedToothBrush

My dsis had chickenpox, my beat friends had chickenpox, outbreaks went round school several times...
I got chicken pox aged 20yo at uni when no one else around had it.
It's an odd one.

@Piggywaspushed

I feel one thing that drives the complacency and the 'just flu' brigade is that the stories of those who have died ( a growing number) have vanished and so they become statistics with 'underlying conditions'. Is that simply because hospitals aren't struggling -yet- so no healthworkers have recently died? Ghoulish as it may sound, it helps to put faces, names, occupation and so on to victims : most behavioural people would argue that ahs an impact on empathy and then behaviour.

On a separate but related note, are there any recent death stats beyond numbers, ages and ethnicity? Are those dying with underlying conditions people previously shielded? Do they ahve the conditions identified as necessitating shielding? Have they done an occupation survey recently, or were numbers too low?

Lots of questions !

.... The NHS detailed statistics for Covid deaths with "existing conditions" includes ALL the conditions they monitor, not just those that significantly increase risk, or indeed increase risk at all

So it includes e.g. those with autism, LDs, past treatment for MH as well as asthma

The "just flu" brigade keep quoting "only xxx deaths under 40/50/60 without existing conditions"
and hence not just cherrypicking the younger & lifelong healthy section of the community, but excluding some of those at no higher risk for their age

Scroll down here to see the regular reports for NHS deaths by ethnicity, age, condition etc on

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

e.g. most recent is

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/10/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-8-October-2020-weekly-file.xlsx

I'm not sure the GP surveillance data on common colds is hugely indicative of actual lower spread, the worried have the "get a covid test" alternative to focus on rather than visiting the GP, others will avoid the GP due to not wanting to take resources and it's still much harder to get an appointment for many.

@BigChocFrenzy The Admissions by age is going to be difficult to understand even if we do have the data, community levels high so lots of the admissions will be with covid rather than admitted with suspected covid. So we'd see a high percentage of the 18-24 admitted with covid (due to the community prevalences in this age group being high) which will simply be a reflection on the community levels. We'd need much more detailed info than has been made public before to actually make any conclusions.

I feel like I am having a mental blank so just wanted clarification.

There are rumours that areas with cases >50 cases per 100,000 people will be in the 'red' stage of the leaked three tier system.

I looked on coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases on the 'Cases by Area' > 'Lower Tier LA' and every area is above that? That can't be true that the whole country will be placed on the 'red' tier, I must be missing something, surely?

@sirfredfredgeorge

I'm not sure the GP surveillance data on common colds is hugely indicative of actual lower spread, the worried have the "get a covid test" alternative to focus on rather than visiting the GP, others will avoid the GP due to not wanting to take resources and it's still much harder to get an appointment for many.

@BigChocFrenzy The Admissions by age is going to be difficult to understand even if we do have the data, community levels high so lots of the admissions will be with covid rather than admitted with suspected covid. So we'd see a high percentage of the 18-24 admitted with covid (due to the community prevalences in this age group being high) which will simply be a reflection on the community levels. We'd need much more detailed info than has been made public before to actually make any conclusions.

.... Very useful would be the breakdown by age of those currently with Covid in hospital - so includes those who catch it there

We have that running total available daily, so it should be easily possible to break it down by age - by far the highest risk factor and hence very relevant

@BigChocFrenzy

Reports from e.g. Richmond had their figures distorted by including Uni students with postcodes outside Richmond

because Uni students are counted where they are registered with GP, often still parents' home address

Sorry if I was posted earlier, but do you have a source? (I’m not disbelieving you!)

This is a fault with the specific uni testing then. I’m not sure why they are asking for GP addresses and attributing cases to them as that would be crazy for anyone. I would imagine most people don’t actually share a postcode with their GP! Why isn’t the Uni testing asking the students where they are currently living and attaching the cases to these postcodes or even just attaching the uni cases to the postcode of the uni itself?!

Thanks BigChoc. It's still not quite the 'humanising face', I am after but interesting nonetheless.

@rosesblooming

I feel like I am having a mental blank so just wanted clarification.

There are rumours that areas with cases >50 cases per 100,000 people will be in the 'red' stage of the leaked three tier system.

I looked on coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases on the 'Cases by Area' > 'Lower Tier LA' and every area is above that? That can't be true that the whole country will be placed on the 'red' tier, I must be missing something, surely?

... Don't believe rumours Wait for facts

I think those rumours are from the daily mail?
The 50 rate was used previously to place LAs on a watch list.
I don’t think every LA is over 50 though, I think the dashboard only shows total cases (ie since the beginning of March) whereas it will be the last 7 days rate that they use for this

Based on my local council (which i don’t think is quite right as i think they are slightly understating the most recent day) the breakdown is roughly
Over 300 - 25 boroughs
200-300 - 25 boroughs
100-200 - 50 boroughs
50-100 - 125 boroughs
Below 50 - 90 boroughs

From here
trafforddatalab.shinyapps.io/covid-19/

"Sorry if I was posted earlier, but do you have a source? (I’m not disbelieving you!)"

Hmmph I posted this link about Richmond - & other London buroughs - upthread yestertday - but these threads move so fast !

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/london-covid-stats-skewed-university-students-a4567441.html