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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

996 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2020 23:27

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
ceeveebee · 09/10/2020 21:44

From the leaked public health report discussed in the article linked to above

“Each region has experienced its own epidemic journey with the north peaking later and the NW [north-west], Y&H [Yorkshire and Humber] and EM [East Midlands] failing to return to a near zero Covid status even during lockdown, unlike the other regions which have been able to return to a near pre-Covid state.”

And: “If we accept the premise that in some areas the infection is now endemic – how does this change our strategy? If these areas were not able to attain near zero-Covid status during full lockdown, how realistic is it that we can expect current restriction escalations to work?”

SheepandCow · 09/10/2020 21:49

I have a relative doing the ONS study. Out of interest (wondering if some areas do it differently), do you get your results? My relative's been told they're only be notified (via their GP) if it's positive.

RedToothBrush · 09/10/2020 21:59

Given there's been a lot of press in the last couple of days - including on the BBC national news - about how 40% ICU beds in Paris are full but Merseyside is apparently the third worst hit area for cases in Europe ahead of Paris, I have wondered how the city is doing for ICU beds.

Hannah Miller @hannahITV Oct 7
I understand intensive care units at Aintree hospital and Royal Liverpool are around half full with COVID patients - the Trust is increasing the number of ICU beds and trying to keep planned surgery going

BBC Radio Manchester @BBCRadioManc 11hrs ago
Leading intensive care consultant, Professor Jane Edelston, from Manchester Royal Infirmary, says Covid patients are currently taking up around 30% of ICU beds in Greater Manchester. That's more than doubled since the start of September.

(thats particular tweet is not terribly clear if its 30% of occupied of 'all beds' or 'all beds occupied' but next tweet clarifies which)

BBC Radio 4 Today @BBCr4today
We are seeing a "concerning" rise in Covid admissions to critical care in Greater Manchester, up to 7 a day, says Prof Jane Eddleston, an intensive care consultant at Manchester Royal Infirmary, adding "about 30 percent of our beds" are taken up #R4Today

Warrington and Halton NHS Trust are reporting they currently have 9 people in ICU. (This is two hospitals - I believe Warrington General has 20 ICU beds - and I have been told they are trying to direct all covid patients to Warrington and keep them out of Halton General. What this means for ICU capacity and planning overall I'm not entirely sure).

I can't find any figures for St Helens and Knowsley.

Looking around elsewhere I found that Bradford Royal has a standard of 16 ICU beds. But in their planning in March, they were working on the assumption of needing 150 ICU beds minimum, but were planning for up to 500 at peak see article below:
www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18341275.huge-numbers-extra-icu-beds-needed-bradford-battle-coronavirus/?ref=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
also see
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52078012
Which also states the 16 standard but up to 500 planning.

Which perhaps does put the current numbers at Liverpool re ICU capacity into a bit more context for planning - but also shows the extent to which hospitals will have to clear everything else.

That also makes the prolongued use of the Manchester Nightingale look bad too though.

It also provides a good deal of background to why Mid Wales (one hospital, 16 ICU beds - long distance to nearest alternative) has shut its borders to non residents.

It shows some of the logistics needed here. But we've also been told (local BBC news) that unlike last time they intend to keep other services running as much as possible so 'clearing the decks' can't be done to the same extent either.

Its both slightly worrying but also concerning at the same time.

To also put into context, someone DH knows died a couple of weeks ago from cancer. He was diagnosed less than a week earlier.

CulturallyAppropriatedName · 09/10/2020 21:59

@SheepandCow
Yes the GP gets all results but you are only told if it's positive. I have rung once or twice to check they have received them, which you can do.

Madcats · 09/10/2020 22:01

SheepandCow no we don't get our results (unless we test positive and then we'll get contacted by Test and Trace).

I think the GP gets the results. I have a bloodtest next week so I'll try to quiz the nurse!

We are doing the antibody blood tests as well as swabs so the phlebotomist always has to be on the way home by 3pm to hand samples to the courier (and the system didn't seem to be set up to send anybody other than a blood tester to us in the first month). It is a shame as I would have thought sporty DD13 is precisely the sort of person they ought to be testing (not her middle aged 'working from home' antisocial parents).

The ONS and the ZOE Covid study do seem to be coming up with useful intelligence, but it must be costing a bomb.

RedToothBrush · 09/10/2020 22:02

numerous false names, as well as those of several homeopaths.

crying Grin

TheSunIsStillShining · 09/10/2020 22:08

numerous false names, as well as those of several homeopaths.

I'm crying as well. Was there no fact checking???? Really on the first page of signatures there are such bonkers names that they are obviously fake.

Witchend · 09/10/2020 22:10

@RedToothBrush

numerous false names, as well as those of several homeopaths.

crying Grin

It's funny, but at the same time rather scary what lengths people are going to to "prove" that lockdown shouldn't happen/covid is no worse than flu type opinions.

Do they genuinely believe it and think making things up will solve it or is it a deliberate attempt to influence opinion against measures?
I'm not sure which is worse.

TheSunIsStillShining · 09/10/2020 22:13

It is a shame as I would have thought sporty DD13 is precisely the sort of person they ought to be testing (not her middle aged 'working from home' antisocial parents).

I'm one of those and I declined for exactly this reason. It would have been a waste of effort and material.

SheepandCow · 09/10/2020 22:13

Thanks ONS people. It sounds consistent then.

Is Liverpool airport open? Do people tend to travel by public transport to and from the airport?

Augustbreeze · 09/10/2020 22:14

I know @Witchend, I'm almost thinking Russian-backed or similar.... And I am most definitely not a conspiracy theorist!

Augustbreeze · 09/10/2020 22:16

Although I did laugh out loud in ASDA yesterday when I saw this "annual" for sale:

Augustbreeze · 09/10/2020 22:17

Blow it won't post. Google "Where"s Dom?" If you need a small break from data and/or you like the "Where's Wally?" books!

pussycatinboots · 09/10/2020 22:18

Mongolian khoomii singing.
Anyone else just off to google this? Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2020 22:18

[quote Dinnerfor1]Apologies if someone has already posted this:

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/four-ten-locked-down-students-19081942[/quote]
....
Mass testing of students in Manchester halls ... 42.5% positive Shock
(of those who returned a test)

OP posts:
SheepandCow · 09/10/2020 22:21

Do you think the students were infected before they arrived in Manchester or did it happen when they got there?

Separately, is Manchester airport open as normal?

SheepandCow · 09/10/2020 22:24

I don't understand why London's half a million students aren't testing positive?
Loads aren't home students. Many live in halls. I know they returned to university later than other areas but it's been a couple of weeks at least now. Is there less testing going on there? Something in London's waters?

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2020 22:27

@pussycatinboots

Mongolian khoomii singing. Anyone else just off to google this? Grin
... Makes a great MN username, but maybe not such a great epidemiologist
OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 09/10/2020 22:33

@SheepandCow

Thanks ONS people. It sounds consistent then.

Is Liverpool airport open? Do people tend to travel by public transport to and from the airport?

Yes its open. Tomorrow its got 21 flights (thats it).

Generally most people tend to go by taxi or drive.

HoldingTight · 09/10/2020 22:34

My council has asked residents not to mix with other households indoors. According to them our case rate is currently around 90 per 100k. Lots of shouty belligerent replies to the Facebook post.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23
wintertravel1980 · 09/10/2020 22:35

There have been several students tested positive at London universities (10-20 per university) but I am afraid there may be more to come.

As far as I have read, all (or nearly all) of London universities are running testing programs but the problem is it may be too early to pick up significant numbers of positive cases.

In my personal opinion, the biggest potential COVID threat for London is indeed university outbreaks.

RedToothBrush · 09/10/2020 22:35

@SheepandCow

Do you think the students were infected before they arrived in Manchester or did it happen when they got there?

Separately, is Manchester airport open as normal?

Yes it is. T2 is currently mothballed though.
TheSunIsStillShining · 09/10/2020 22:36

@pussycatinboots

Mongolian khoomii singing. Anyone else just off to google this? Grin
Look up The HU. Best. band. ever :)
BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2020 22:45

England

Hospital admissions & deaths both doubling time ~ 2 weeks

StuartMcDonald @ActuaryByDay

Latest COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths data for England has been published.

Daily admissions have accelerated again this week, after a week when growth had been slower.
Based on the current trend, the doubling time is around two weeks. 1/3

Based on recent hospital admissions our estimate of R has risen again and is significantly above the crucial value of 1.0 at the last point we can estimate.

Obviously there is significant regional variation.
@john_actuary will add some detail on this shortly. 2/3

Average daily COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals has increased from five on 31 Aug to over forty.

Again, the doubling time is around two weeks based on the recent trend,
and we expect this to continue to follow the trend in admissions. 3/3

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2020 22:45

John Roberts @john_actuary

To complement ‪*@ActuaryByDay*‬'s latest analysis of admissions and deaths, here's the regional analysis.

The story remains a nation of two halves.

There's little sign of any slowdown in the north unfortunately. 1/2

With the exception of the SW (for which no's are very low),
those areas with the highest figures also have the highest increases this week,
thus accelerating the divergence.

For the NW, the MA is now back to the level of mid-May,
although then of course it was on the decline. 2/2

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23
OP posts: