Meet the Other Phone. Protection built in.

Meet the Other Phone.
Protection built in.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23

996 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2020 23:27

Welcome to thread 23 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
67
ceeveebee · 09/10/2020 20:30

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

In England schools reopened on 1st June. In Merseyside and Sefton, we didn’t send children back until 22nd June, because until that point the R was still above 1 locally.

By 22nd June, many more people were being encouraged back into work and interactions; implying that while the R and infections had dropped in the rest of the country, they hadn’t yet around here and as such lockdown could be viewed as having lifted too early

Agreed. Andy Burnham has been cautioning since late May / early June that it was too soon for the NW as the rates were higher and that without a proper test and trace system in place (which lets remember, the world beating app was promised by 1 June?) it would lead to a second wave. I’m sure he is not happy to be proved right in this way.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/greater-manchester-mayor-andy-burnham-18335264

And apparently a leaked Public Health report outlined that the virus never really went away from the most deprived areas, many of which are in the north.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/05/covid-19-could-be-endemic-in-deprived-parts-of-england

Crockof · 09/10/2020 20:32

@Madcats

We are in the ONS study, except we didn't get a visit this week. There is another MN thread on the erratic testing.

DD rarely gets tested because few testers are willing to arrive before 8 or after 4pm.

This changes everything if school children aren't being tested because they are..... At school.
BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2020 20:32

I hope that at least the lesson has been learned about protecting care homes,
e.g. not discharging lots of possibly infected people back into care homes, professional infection control, (sadly) restrict / stop visitors

I read that many care homes now have full sick pay for staff, but I doubt if all do

OP posts:
UntamedShrew · 09/10/2020 20:35

I wonder if too much emphasis is being placed on the timing of starting/lifting of lockdown in the NW, as this is not the only variable.
Another one is the number of people able to work from home, which is far higher in London than in the NW.

But this is just another reason why localised lockdowns are needed. We have a worrying lack of clear information and a plan forward for each area, and I totally agree with Red that the problem now is an acute absence of leadership.

RedToothBrush · 09/10/2020 20:38

@UntamedShrew

I wonder if too much emphasis is being placed on the timing of starting/lifting of lockdown in the NW, as this is not the only variable. Another one is the number of people able to work from home, which is far higher in London than in the NW.

But this is just another reason why localised lockdowns are needed. We have a worrying lack of clear information and a plan forward for each area, and I totally agree with Red that the problem now is an acute absence of leadership.

NW had/has a problem with accessible testing facilities - particularly for deprieved communities.

I know I've bleated on about it a lot but it mean any problem was likely to come 'out of the blue' and very sharply when it appeared.

whatsnext2 · 09/10/2020 20:49

@Timeforanotherusername

Ilove I think it is logical to suggest that if there were lots of asymptomatic young children being super spreaders, then the rate of increase in the 25-34 and 35-49 age ranges would be a lot higher compared to Age 2 to School Year 6.

Its not there.

Yes, I am making an assumption, but in my opinion the data is there to suggest its a reasonable assumption.

You seem determined that children are asymptomatic and super spreaders. Please provide the evidence!

@Timeforanotherusername That’s 3 posters you have accused of having an agenda they didn’t suggest now.

Perhaps think about pulling your head in a bit?

FATEdestiny · 09/10/2020 20:57

This changes everything if school children aren't being tested because they are..... At school.

Our ONS study tester comes on a Sunday, for this very reason.

To add to the discussion on the ONS test, you know parents are not stabbing themselves (instead of children) because the HCP comes to the house to do swabs (and also take blood from adults), so they are done in front of the person.

SheepandCow · 09/10/2020 20:58

@UntamedShrew

I wonder if too much emphasis is being placed on the timing of starting/lifting of lockdown in the NW, as this is not the only variable. Another one is the number of people able to work from home, which is far higher in London than in the NW.

But this is just another reason why localised lockdowns are needed. We have a worrying lack of clear information and a plan forward for each area, and I totally agree with Red that the problem now is an acute absence of leadership.

Millions of Londoners can't work from home. A large number of the 'Londoners' who work from home don't live there. They live in the surrounding home counties. That's perhaps why, as Mayor Sadiq Khan knows, London also needs preventative restrictions. He knows it's deja vu. Officially low cases in London. Right up until 'oops oh dear, hospitals overwhelmed...oh well that was always going to happen in such a large city...' Sadiq hoped to avoid a repeat. Unfortunately he's being ignored by the government.

A hospital on the edge of London, At Heliers, already had to temporarily close to some patients earlier this week.

What we need is a coherent national approach instead of a conveniently distracting playing off of regions against each other. Viruses don't care about regional boundaries.

IloveJKRowling · 09/10/2020 20:58

@MotherOfDragonite thanks for linking to the Princeton study which I hadn't seen

The Princeton study is interesting and suggests that we need to focus on removing environments that could turn into super spreading events.

The transmission from children to household contacts also interesting, not surprising. I'd be really interested in an age profile in terms of number of people infected per age group but also how badly affected they were.

Intuitively I'd expect the secondary age group to spread it to more people (which the S Korea study also supports) wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-1315_article

But for little children, where extremely close contact is required for caregivers, I'd expect there to be a lower number of people infected (also shown in S Korea study) but for them to receive a very high viral load and potentially be more likely to require medical help (www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30354-4/fulltext - shows independent relationship between high viral load and mortality) .

For the littlest children caregivers need to wipe bums, noses, get sneezed and coughed on and have quite a lot of face to face close contact. It seems that it is probably even more important in primary for vulnerable teachers to be protected (allowed to work from home) as keeping 2m is pretty much impossible for a Reception teacher.

IceCreamSummer20 · 09/10/2020 20:58

What do people think about the numbers in Madrid and emergency measures? World in data shows on scary graph.

I know their positive rate was high a couple of weeks ago (20%?) and their testing poor, leadership in factions and poor management of social distancing / indoor bars etc. I don’t know what the positivity rate is now? It is an example of what can happen if not managed well and possibly lessons for us?

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23
MRex · 09/10/2020 21:00

As a Londoner, I don't agree that hospitals were just left. Northwick Park was the first to suffer and had patients sent out to multiple hospitals, so the situation stabilised in under 24 hours. We had ~40 ambulances go by when one hospital got overwhelmed and they were moving a raft of patients to the one near us. Playing in the garden in the sun to the constant sound of sirens was sobering. London also had the private hospitals and all their staff, taken over by mandate and caring for a lot of patients. Nightingales ready for overflow, skeleton staffed but with rumours of all manner of backup plans with ex nurse air crew, vets etc. CCGs must have backup plans for any normal winter and I can't believe CCGs in the NW and NE haven't developed any contingency plans, that just doesn't seem credible.

I also think we're far from herd immunity, and the continuing rises in boroughs that were hit hard in the first wave seem to indicate it's not the case.

Regarding NE and NW and the "too soon to leave lockdown" argument, I'm afraid I don't subscribe either. Cases were low, in many cases lower than some other areas, and changed erratically back up in the North. There are several airports that specialise in package holidays to the type of resorts that had clubs open and spread cases right across Europe and I think holidays contributed. On top of that we have idiotic behaviour, conspiracy theories, distrust in government (traditional labour supporting areas often hit hardest) conspiring to affect poor quarantine/ isolation compliance and compliance with tracing, excessive household mixing, deprivation, dense housing, idiotic parties, slow tracing of positive tests, more rainy weather sending people indoors often, a few local bars that didn't follow guidelines and a big dollop of very bad luck. If it hadn't started happening now, it would have happened in a month, two months... sometime before spring. Viruses just await opportunities; if you count each case that didn't transmit since March then we have hundreds of thousands of opportunities the virus missed to replicate at scale just in the UK, then it didn't miss. There is one thing I didn't include; if anyone has figures on number of people working outside the home during lockdown then that would be interesting, I recall checking the Google footfall maps and not seeing any particular differences. Other parts of the country also have deprivation and lots of people had to work outside.the home, I'm unconvinced NE and NW were special in that regard and instead wonder whether guidelines were followed in workplaces that were open.

SheepandCow · 09/10/2020 21:00

@BigChocFrenzy

I hope that at least the lesson has been learned about protecting care homes, e.g. not discharging lots of possibly infected people back into care homes, professional infection control, (sadly) restrict / stop visitors

I read that many care homes now have full sick pay for staff, but I doubt if all do

I really hope so. Unfortunately I'm not overly confident. Wasn't there a report a few weeks ago about care homes still being pressured to take Covid patients? Its sickening if true.
SheepandCow · 09/10/2020 21:00

@BigChocFrenzy

I hope that at least the lesson has been learned about protecting care homes, e.g. not discharging lots of possibly infected people back into care homes, professional infection control, (sadly) restrict / stop visitors

I read that many care homes now have full sick pay for staff, but I doubt if all do

I really hope so. Unfortunately I'm not overly confident. Wasn't there a report a few weeks ago about care homes still being pressured to take Covid patients? Its sickening if true.
IceCreamSummer20 · 09/10/2020 21:01

Graph whole of Spain btw

ceeveebee · 09/10/2020 21:09

There is an ONS report on wfh by region, but it only covered April and whilst London was higher than others, there wasn’t really much of a difference compared to NW or NE. West Midlands was the lowest.
The definition includes any working from home though - could be one day a week, could be full time
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/coronavirusandhomeworkingintheuk/april2020#homeworking-by-region

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 23
SheepandCow · 09/10/2020 21:09

No idea why I posted twice!

@mrex Perhaps they did do something then but it doesn't sound like it was enough. At one point London Ambulance Service temporarily changed it's threshold for hospital admissions. The nightingales (and the private hospitals) weren't properly utilised because of a lack of staff.

I know Northwick Park had it very bad. Probably not helped by the fact that one of the closest alternatives, Watford General, also seemed to have some difficulties at one stage. It put people living in outer north west London in a very vulnerable position. Northwick Park's A&E had to close - and neighbouring hospitals also under pressure, it was a very bad time to get ill (Covid or anything else)...

Birmingham's hospitals were also overwhelmed at one point. I remember wondering at the time why we weren't doing the same as Germany and moving patients around the country.

BigChocFrenzy · 09/10/2020 21:13

That Great Barrington Declaration of "scientists" for herd immunity, included fake & dummy names Confused

Such sloppiness further decreases their credibility

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/09/herd-immunity-letter-signed-fake-experts-dr-johnny-bananas-covid

An open letter that made headlines calling for a herd immunity approach to Covid-19 lists a number of apparently fake names among its expert signatories,
including “Dr Johnny Bananas” and “Professor Cominic Dummings”

The Great Barrington declaration, which was said to have been signed by more than 15,000 scientists and medical practitioners around the world,
was found by Sky News to contain numerous false names, as well as those of several homeopaths.

Others listed include a resident at the “university of your mum”
and another supposed specialist whose name was the first verse of the Macarena

Sky News discovered 18 self-declared homeopaths in the list of expert names
and more than 100 therapists whose expertise included massage, hypnotherapy and Mongolian khoomii singing.

OP posts:
Piggywaspushed · 09/10/2020 21:16

I have an enormous teddy bear called Barrington. Got about as many brains and the same amount of stuffing.

wintertravel1980 · 09/10/2020 21:16

Andy Burnham has been cautioning since late May / early June that it was too soon for the NW as the rates were higher and that without a proper test and trace system in place (which lets remember, the world beating app was promised by 1 June?) it would lead to a second wave.

But it is not clear that the rates were higher.

Even if you accept the argument that the ONS survey missed the endemic spread, hospital admissions in the North West dropped to very low levels (single digit numbers). The number for 22/8 was 1 (1 patient for the whole region!). As we have seen from the recent events, high prevalence does push hospital admissions up. It cannot remain hidden for a prolonged period of time.

The real question is what happened just before August 24 (the date when cases started ballooning). Is it holiday returners? Lockdown fatigue? Weather changing? Bad luck/a chain of super spreading events? I would be really keen on seeing T&T data to understand the root cause.

Timeforanotherusername · 09/10/2020 21:16

Whatsnext eh?

Not really sure what you're on about and since your mention heads 'away bile yer heid'

SheepandCow · 09/10/2020 21:21

@ceeveebee
London has more people than anywhere else (9 million, including over 1 million over 65s) - many living in deprived high density housing, so was always going be at huge risk. More people = easy fast spread = more potential victims. Over 6,200 Londoners have already died from Covid. Sadiq Khan knows the risks, which is why he wants preventative measures taken before it's too late.

It's a clever distraction tactic focusing on division and local regions. Viruses spread fast particularly when it's one with so many asymptomatic people. They also don't respect borders.

We need a coherent national approach. All these different rules, are unnecessarily divisive and cause resentment - on both sides, with some people resenting the extra protection, and others envying it. It also creates too much confusion. People live and work across regions.

Cherrypi · 09/10/2020 21:21

Another Monday night Boris announcement.

Dinnerfor1 · 09/10/2020 21:25

Apologies if someone has already posted this:

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/four-ten-locked-down-students-19081942

CulturallyAppropriatedName · 09/10/2020 21:35

@Madcats

We are in the ONS study, except we didn't get a visit this week. There is another MN thread on the erratic testing.

DD rarely gets tested because few testers are willing to arrive before 8 or after 4pm.

That's interesting. We are also on the ONS study and have also missed our visit this week, (should have been our last weekly visit last week, but we are now a week overdue). They were very efficient the first 3 weeks then the last 3 it's seemed much more chaotic. I wonder if they opened up a new cohort.

Unlike you we have always got the kids tested with appointments in the early evening, though they do try to offer appointments between, say, 10 and 4 pm as a first option. Which is silly when you are explicitly testing families.

Swipe left for the next trending thread