We may have to give up more to keep them open

[notevenat20]

From the BBC quoting Ferguson this morning

"We think that infections are probably increasing, doubling every two weeks or so, in some areas faster than that, maybe every seven days," he said.

The former government adviser said the "most important" measure to drive down infections was reducing contact between households.

He said schools should be kept open, but "we may have to give up more to keep them open"."

Can we give up any more?

They can shut gyms, pubs and restaurants to try and keep schools open. I've managed to go without since Feb.

Thats nice for you. Furlough is ending, I wonder how they will all feel about going without an income.

Think we will have a two week "circuit breaker" around half term.

Inter-house transmission, so anything that reduces that. Which is all the fun stuff basically.

Education is best in schools. For some children it doesn’t happen out of them, and worse.

If people want to homeschool they have that option. If it’s temporary due to ECV that should be looked at.

In the north west been in further restrictions for weeks and weeks yet cases are still rising fast. Hospital admissions are much higher than a month ago as are deaths but gradual.

There is a lag tho between community infections hitting hospitals and then a lag between admission and death in a lot of cases.

We’ve not been able to mix households for ages yet it’s still rising and now in schools/colleges and uni too.

I work in the NHS winter looks bleak ( most winters are tough anyway!) but I really don’t know what the answer is anymore.

I didn’t say we should shut them!!!! I’m saying they could be alternatives.

I think we are in a really difficult situation. I have friends in Manchester. It’s all over the schools there.

I’m with the trend that if parents want to home educate them they can without being penalised. This will reduce numbers of students in schools

But ultimately if it gets worse (can it get worse?!) and schools remain open then something has to give. Or schools will have to close.

Infections may be increasing but deaths are still relatively low are they not? There’s not really any need to shut down further than we are atm.

The problem is that one follows the other with a lag of a few weeks. So you can think of the rise in infections as a warning that we need to act now.

Infections aren't bad! The majority of people are recovering, we shouldn't be as locked down as we are. Its so disproportionate to the death rate of COVID

Schools should be the priority
Then services including food shops, pharmacies et al
Then a sliding scale with the highest contributors except social places to the economy at the top and the lowest at the bottom
Then pubs, restaurants etc at the bottom of the list.

Outdoor places should be able to stay open, e.g grounds at national trust places, country parks and so on but with booking to limit numbers.

We’ve not been able to mix households for ages yet it’s still rising and now in schools/colleges and uni too. I work in the NHS winter looks bleak ( most winters are tough anyway!) but I really don’t know what the answer is anymore.

The difficulty is that we know what works and that's police supported high tech surveillance as in S Korea. We just don't want to live like that.

@notevenat20

Infections may be increasing but deaths are still relatively low are they not? There’s not really any need to shut down further than we are atm.

The problem is that one follows the other with a lag of a few weeks. So you can think of the rise in infections as a warning that we need to act now.

cases have been rising since the beginning of July - three months ago

number of deaths have remained very low

[quote herecomesthsun]@BoggledBudgie

2 words, exponential growth.

The numbers are liable to get a whole lot bigger really quickly.[/quote]
This.

Cases have been rising for the last few months again though, death growth hasn’t followed. I don’t understand the fear anymore, atm you’re more likely to die by suicide than you are to die of Covid. I’m not saying it’s not a good idea to continue some form of social distancing but this is really getting ridiculous now

[quote herecomesthsun]@BoggledBudgie

2 words, exponential growth.

The numbers are liable to get a whole lot bigger really quickly.[/quote]
But it seems to peak. In Spain we have suffered with it a lot, but the numbers are starting to fall and deaths are still very low. There were no extra measures introduced, and schools opened a month ago.

‘You are more likely to die by suicide’

That’s a comfort to those with mental health issues who’ve looked suicide in the face more than once🤨

@MarshaBradyo

Education is best in schools. For some children it doesn’t happen out of them, and worse.

If people want to homeschool they have that option. If it’s temporary due to ECV that should be looked at.

I do think that if people are in a position and able to home school they should be given that option.

Personally I'd rather grate my face off than homeschool. Don't have the patience for it and I doubt I'm the only one. There's a reason I send my kid to school.

Schools should be the priority
Then services including food shops, pharmacies et al

I do wonder if people actually read what they type.

So schools above being able to by food or medication, you do realise people need to eat.

cases have been rising since the beginning of July - three months ago. number of deaths have remained very low

This is not really accurate. Cases have been going up rapidly since the end of August, particularly in the NW. The chart of hospitalisations in the NW looks like this. It's plotted on a log scale so a straight line is really bad (corresponds to numbers doubling). The horizontal line is the previous peak hospitalisations from the first wave.

If you look at the numbers nationally it is misleading as the growth is very different in different parts of the country.

I do think that if people are in a position and able to home school they should be given that option.

How does that work practically in terms of support from the school? Not many families both have a parent who doesn't work and one who is able to provide a full school education without any support.

@notevenat20

I do think that if people are in a position and able to home school they should be given that option.

How does that work practically in terms of support from the school? Not many families both have a parent who doesn't work and one who is able to provide a full school education without any support.

Did you miss the bit where I said 'be given that option'?

That usually means choice in my head.

ok - so national cases have been rising since the beginning of July but national numbers of deaths have remained low during the same period

Gamer yep it’s a choice. I don’t want homeschooling forced on us again, dc are happy to be back. But if people want to do it go for it. Oak Academy still running for resources.

The one thing I’d look at is ECV having temporary option.

There is no evidence that you’re more likely to die of suicide than Covid at the minute. It’s impossible for that evidence to exist because Covid data has a fairly small lag compared to suicide data, which only exists after a coroner’s inquest. For the last month for which comparative data was available (months ago), it was not true that you were more likely to die of suicide than covid.

Try not to converse in Facebook meme.

Did you miss the bit where I said 'be given that option'?

I saw that but I wasn't sure if you meant without any support at all from the school.

And what happens to those who don’t have children (for whatever reason)? I agree it is scandalous that children are not receiving the education that they should, but shut the whole country down for this? I don’t think so...there has to be a balance somehow. For my part, I know a few who would shut the country down tomorrow to keep the schools open and yet freely tell me about all the mixing they have done with the families over the weekend despite it being prohibited in our local lockdown...😡😡😡

In most of Wales we are not allowed to leave our counties or meet indoors with anyone not from our household, including those in bubbles, other than for work or education. I haven't seen anyone policing this and I've been driving across three counties for work for two weeks, but the numbers in Caerphilly (first to introduce measures) seem to be going down.