Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Has anyone seen the graphs going around about the different percentages of infection caused by different activities? Will closing leisure and hospitality venues be enough to prevent cases in hard hit areas from increasing rapidly?

I know you prefer facts but fb can be interesting. My area of North Devon has gone crazy, pubs, chip shops, restaurants, school bubbles closing in the last five days. Also rumbles of increased hospital admissions.

I've been looking at the Washington Uni IHME (Inst. for Health metrics & Evaluation) modelling projections,
up to 1 Jan 2021

I think they must be reasonable worst case for the UK at least:

covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Uk nearly 116k total, so an extra 70k over winter
Drops to 80k with universal mask-wearing
Goes off the scale if SD is dropped !

Germany 33k, so an extra 24k over winter - plausible if Merkel & the 16 states decides that's acceptable to keep the economy ramped up

France 88k total, Italy 61k,
Spain only 56k - looks out of date !

Hmm, let's revisit this NYE and see how the modellers did

The Exeter Nightingale is being used for diagnostic tests at the moment. It wasn't opened during the height of the outbreak and it wasn't designed to just take people on ventilators, it has 5 wards I think and can segregate according to patients needs e.g. the patients on ventilators in one ward and people recovering in another ward.

They are also running vaccine studies in Exeter. It seems to be working well.

Found a statement on bed occupancy in the NW - peak covid beds in April almost 3000, predicted to be at that level by the end of October and too late to alter that as those people are already infected (just not yet hospitalised)

I thought we usually decided we didn't need the EU! But glad the UK has joined forces with the EU this time.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/08/nhs-to-provide-remdesivir-to-covid-patients-after-joint-eu-deal

Wow Get a move on. Thats frightening.

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Found a statement on bed occupancy in the NW - peak covid beds in April almost 3000, predicted to be at that level by the end of October and too late to alter that as those people are already infected (just not yet hospitalised)

Get where is that from? It’s a bit small

Clareykb what's worrying me is the number of students who do live in the community, especially at Newcastle uni I believe. So using shops and gp's as well as transport. Plus the number who are at medical and dental school, nursing and teacher training etc.,

I do think in Newcastle that closing bars and pubs will actually have an impact. Because it will be a mix of students and emboldened locals mixing in bars driving numbers now and the impact will begin to spread over the next month.

Schools are being badly hit and it's only a matter of time before some will close due to staff absences (a couple I know have.)

I can't imagine the effect it has on nhs hospital workers with children when they have to SI as well as SI from close contacts or infections.

That's scary re NW

twitter.com/lawrencedunhill/status/1314174724264603650?s=21

NW hospital post came from a reporter’s twitter - originally in the NSJ but that’s behind a paywall

This Bristol Maths prof has been warning for ages that the rate of growth for NW England hospital admissions puts them on course to reach previous highs by late October (18 to 21 days time).
mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1314221423368568832

On 1 October, 23% of occupied ventilation beds were Covid patients, 16% of NW & Yorkshire
Note the occupied - there will be spare capacity too

I'd like to know current status, one week on ...

UK COVID-19@ UKCovid19Stats

On October 1st,

10.5% of England's occupied mechanical ventilation beds were COVID-19 patients.

On October 1st,
1.8% of England's occupied hospital beds were COVID-19 patients.

Am I right in thinking that if I divide the number of cases on the Arcgis map by 7200, and multiply by 100,000 then I get the rate for that MSOA?

If so, my work MSOA in Knowsley has just tipped over 1000 per 100,000 for the first time...

The Imperial table (3rd link in OP) extrapolates Knowsely for this week, 4-10 October to be 752:

imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table

Liverpool Echo reported this morning:

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/knowsley-liverpool-now-highest-covid-19067767

"The rate of infection per 100,000 people in Knowsley is 574.4, which is the highest rate of infection yet recorded in England.

Liverpool has the second highest rate of infectionn_ for the week ending October 4 with 551.6"

Any calculation = way too fucking high

Imperial extrapolation for next week has Knowsley ~ 1072 / 100, 000

For your own personal risk assessment, remember:

people being tested have a much higher chance of being infected than the general population

Thats about 1/175 confirmed.

@BigChocFrenzy

For your own personal risk assessment, remember:

people being tested have a much higher chance of being infected than the general population

On the other hand given messaging around testing and criteria a lot of asymptomatic cases will be missed.

Is there a way to resolve this contradiction? (from a logic perspective)

Mixed bag. Although your's is more a glass half full :)

Wait for the ONS and PHE infection surveys

• but accept they are 7-10 days back in history

but we can keep comparing the surveys with the 7-day incidence rates at the time they measured

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/08/planned-new-covid-rules-for-north-of-england-are-not-enough-say-scientists
This is quite worrying. I'm not sure what to think but it feels a bit scary.

I'm not sure if this link has been posted anywhere- I couldn't see it, but apologies if I am repeating what is already knows.

www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/ : pretty good dashboard bring together all the data in easy to read format.

There is one purely for Scotland too, link: www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

Apparently this slide was presented by Chris Witty to northern MPs today - shows where people have been in the few days before infection (so not necessarily where they caught it). For under 30s, around 33% have been to pubs/bars/restaurants

Funny that other households are so far down the list given that we have previously been told this is the main route of transmission? And where are educational settings on here?