Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@Keepdistance

Does sweden prove it is vit d? They havent dont anything. Their epidemic should have continued through the summer. So either vit d causing fewer symptoms or weather temperature etc. Though i guess their schools were probably off too.

.... Sweden have only about 8% of the population density of the UK, 5% of England That is a very effective form of SD

They have banned groups > 50 since March
and school for 16+ is online
Other measures are voluntary

BUT
their total deaths / million are 5-12 x that of their Scandinavian neighbours withe similar low population density & culture who did lock down

If we look at Scandinavia ? Nordic countries as a whole, imo population density plays by far the greatest role in the very low deaths of Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Finland

Scandinavian / Nordic

@Bluebelltulip - it doesn't sound much less weird having little lines of hamster ovaries growing stuff. There are still surely scaling issues. 400,000 pet hamsters in the UK; say 200,000 female. Say you get 10k of them to breed. 2-3 weeks pregnancy (6-12/litter avg) and 4-6 weeks for a hamster pup to grow to maturity but better to wait until 10 weeks. So 3 months to get 60k-120k hamsters, 30k-60k with ovaries, minus 10k for the next breeding cycle, then a few weeks to grow antibodies. Even if one pair of hamster ovaries can make enough for a person to heal (how much can actually be grown in little hamster ovaries?) we've only got 20k-60k people healed in 14 weeks.

The cells aren't in hamsters at all, they are cells grown in culture flasks, no requirement for hamsters to mate and reproduce at all! Imagine them more like single cell organisms grown in liquid with all the nutrients they need that divide to reproduce.

We are self isolating again and reading the figures from today I'm glad of it. Two members of my estranged family have covid but are ok so far. My mum is worried about them both though.
Have figures really doubled in a week? I know they have in Stockport but nationally? Wtf is going on? Why are numbers going up so much? How long before it's decided that actually schools being open isn't helping. Dds' and ds's schools were both happy yesterday to have them in with dd having a fever I soon arranged for them to come home.

@Bluebelltulip

The cells aren't in hamsters at all, they are cells grown in culture flasks, no requirement for hamsters to mate and reproduce at all! Imagine them more like single cell organisms grown in liquid with all the nutrients they need that divide to reproduce.

Thank god for that, otherwise if hamster ovaries were to be used for this, future generations would have no hamsters left....

Anyone interested in the social/psychological aspect, here is a handy tool that lets you see trends in google searches. It's not much, but gives ideas on where to go look further maybe

trends.google.com/

Getting from your cupboard is Ok.

Vitamin D has been suggested as part of the reason for geographical differences but age structure of population, crowding and underlying conditions are proven, vitamin D still is not (although it seems increasingly likely it will be part of the problem, keep taking the tablets or liquid).

Any measures you take short of total lockdown have a barely noticeable effect immediately, it builds up after a week and needs 2 weeks to really see the benefit.

and (sighs) do we really need to list all the places where religious services have been an issue? Start with Torbay for one of the first outbreaks in Britain then www.axios.com/church-coronavirus-easter-passover-ramadan-2e47a5a4-b9f9-4990-911f-07a68ee5f7e8.html

Perhaps god is calling the faithful home before life gets even worse.

@daytripper28 - have pistachios with your : www.tododisca.com/red-wine-and-its-antioxidant-keys-against-coronavirus-according-scientists/.

I'm so glad the ovaries are grown that way, envisioning the logistics of tens of thousands of tiny hamster ovary operations was almost overwhelming.

That was instead of the predicted 7 day doubling by Whitty / Vallance on 21 Sept Did they predict a doubling? I thought they showed scenario of what would happen if it doubled every 7 days.

Does anyone have any idea what is happening in Northern Ireland? The rates especially around Derry are alarming

I think people might find this interesting, from the ever-reliable Richard @rp131 on Twitter. It's an analysis of bed occupancy by area; showing that in the NW, for example, Covid patients are occupying 4.1% of beds (688 patients) compared to just 0.3% in the SW.

Top is South Tees, with 10.8%.

Has anyone got any response information on the leaked new measures, especially tier 3. The things I've seen don't mention support bubbles still being allowed in tier 3 and I feel desperate about it as I don't know what I would do without mine.

Richard’s bed occupancy data is really interesting, but it also needs another column which is number of beds on the allocated Covid wards. 2 of our local NW hospitals have said their covid beds are all now full. So either the nightingale hospitals need to be used properly or other wards reassigned to be covid red wards

Ah great! The nhs hospital activity spreadsheet has been updated!

@GetAMoveOnTroodon the nhs activity spreadsheet doesn't give that info which is what he must be using for his info

@PatriciaHolm
that is interesting. I keep thinking that we're led to believe that hospitals are overflowing with covid patients but to think that 98% of people are in hospital for non covid reasons is, I think, helpful

@EducatingArti
I'm not sure, i honestly don't think that has been decided, the only thing that I'm sure about is that hospitality will close in the red zones but then again not seen anything about what the threshold for a red zone will be. Im worried about this too. The thing is I think people would manage it for a time limited period (say up to a month) but to suggest we couldn't rely on these bubbles (childcare bubble in my case) indefinitely throughout the winter would be really really awful IMO. I feel sorry for the hospitality businesses but in reality this will not affect me hardly at all.

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Richard’s bed occupancy data is really interesting, but it also needs another column which is number of beds on the allocated Covid wards. 2 of our local NW hospitals have said their covid beds are all now full. So either the nightingale hospitals need to be used properly or other wards reassigned to be covid red wards

And there are c1,100 in hospital in the north west as of today’s dashboard so it’s gone up quite significantly (about 50%) since 1 October

Beth Rigby (Sky news) linked this from a “Whitehall source”. It makes sobering reading. I hope the link works as I’ve not done this before.
rcem.ac.uk/RCEM/News/News_2020/RCEM_issues_urgent_warning_as_hospitals_near_capacity.aspx

@GetAMoveOnTroodon
I was thinking that by now surely it must be worth considering getting some of the nightingales going again as long as they can staff them
presumably this could only be done by closing down some other services. Just being able to keep covid patients separate from other patients sounds to me to be a good idea.

This is, I think,interesting. The figures are crude estimations so not usable data however, it attempts to quantify (again crudely) the effects of behaviour on herd immunity. Really only the outline of a thread of thought but plausible, and perhaps offering a tiny bit of optimism regarding herd immunity.

theconversation.com/coronavirus-thresholds-for-effective-herd-immunity-could-be-lower-than-predicted-heres-why-145069

Richard’s bed occupancy data is really interesting, but it also needs another column which is number of beds on the allocated Covid wards

Could you get some sort of idea from how many beds were occupied during the peak in the spring, presume those figures are around somewhere?

@PatriciaHolm

I think people might find this interesting, from the ever-reliable Richard *@rp131* on Twitter. It's an analysis of bed occupancy by area; showing that in the NW, for example, Covid patients are occupying 4.1% of beds (688 patients) compared to just 0.3% in the SW.

Top is South Tees, with 10.8%.

@PatriciaHolm that’s a useful table. Where do you get this?

@Inniu I think there are a number of factors at play for NI:
The areas hardest hit (currently) Derry and Strabane share a border with Donegal in ROI which is one of the worst hit areas of ROI. The communities living in these areas will typically cross the border multiple times per day/week for groceries, socialising and work.
There seems to be much lower adherence of masks in NI (I’m from there and am shocked at how lax officials are about mask wearing)
There are very high levels of deprivation in the areas currently worst affected, and a long running distrust of government, which may be having an impact on adherence to the rules - either due to financially unable to comply/mainly working out of the home or distrust of Govt.
Large events are still possible - there have been publicised GAA matches that have had large attendances recently. Weddings do not have a Govt. mandated maximum attendance
Similar to the Cummings fiasco, high profile politicians in NI have had their own choices criticised - attendance at a large funeral which did not appear to have social distancing in place
Similar to factors reported in the north of England - many families live nearby and communities are very intertwined - it’s very common to know all your neighbours, live on the same road as family etc. and childcare is often more informal relying on grandparents etc.