Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Link to source: mobile.twitter.com/singharj/status/1314179590412271617

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Am I right in thinking that if I divide the number of cases on the Arcgis map by 7200, and multiply by 100,000 then I get the rate for that MSOA?

If so, my work MSOA in Knowsley has just tipped over 1000 per 100,000 for the first time...

@GetAMoveOnTroodon pretty much so, the average MSOA in Knowsley is marginally higher at 7,543. Knowsley MSOAs and populations attached.

Article on the Edinburgh University study:

Why Edinburgh University's lockdown study is not all it seems

Commentators have used study as evidence government was too quick to impose full lockdown but conclusions not so clear

Ackland [one of the authors of the study] "acknowledges that the predictions only hold if an effective vaccine is not available to the UK population within a few years."
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/08/lockdown-could-have-increased-covid-death-toll-scottish-study-finds

ceevee the blue banner at the top suggest workplaces and school/ education are left out because they are unconscionable.

What I find most interesting about the slide posted by @ceeveebee is that it seems to acknowledge that schools and work places are very significant sources of transmission - as it says that by choosing to keep them open there are limited options for reducing transmission. Seems to contradict a lot of what we have heard about low transmission in schools.

6.7% positivity rate in my borough last week with most cases in the 10-19 age range.

The comments under this on Facebook are honestly bonkers. I'd love to set you lot on to them!

Not necessarily schools - universities account for well over 50% of Manchester’s cases, and think the same is true in Liverpool, Leeds, Newcastle, Nottingham too. I think whilst the number of outbreaks in schools is fairly high (think I read about 600 last week?) the average number of cases per school will be low given that they close the bubbles after one case.

[quote LadyLoungeALot]There is one purely for Scotland too, link: www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/[/quote]
...
it's in the OP

They are increasingly not doing that ceevee as it goes.

the average number of cases per school will be low given that they close the bubbles after one case

Not round here, they aren’t!

What I'm finding incredibly strange is that the Government are seemingly going to allow businesses in the North to collapse all on the back of mainly allowing students to go to university to learn online which is what has caused all these significant spikes. Students could have stayed
at home for 12 weeks until after Xmas.. Government could have funded university accommodation costs or deferred student loans for that quarter.

@ceeveebee

Apparently this slide was presented by Chris Witty to northern MPs today - shows where people have been in the few days before infection (so not necessarily where they caught it). For under 30s, around 33% have been to pubs/bars/restaurants

Funny that other households are so far down the list given that we have previously been told this is the main route of transmission? And where are educational settings on here?

That writing in the blue bar at the top is interesting.

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]Article on the Edinburgh University study:

Why Edinburgh University's lockdown study is not all it seems

Commentators have used study as evidence government was too quick to impose full lockdown but conclusions not so clear

Ackland [one of the authors of the study] "acknowledges that the predictions only hold if an effective vaccine is not available to the UK population within a few years."
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/08/lockdown-could-have-increased-covid-death-toll-scottish-study-finds[/quote]
......
"the predictions only hold if an effective vaccine is not available to the UK population within a few years."

which means those predictions were only valid if almost all the experts in the field are wrong

Predictions from public health leaders and scientists working in the vaccine field are that several vaccines will be available next year sometime

Not quite a silver bullet, but should enable the removal of SD measures once vaccination has been rolled out
and as Covid strains are clinically the same, scientists can refine and improve the vaccines each year,

• unlike flu, which has to be modified each year in a guess at the most common strains

@ceeveebee

Apparently this slide was presented by Chris Witty to northern MPs today - shows where people have been in the few days before infection (so not necessarily where they caught it). For under 30s, around 33% have been to pubs/bars/restaurants

Funny that other households are so far down the list given that we have previously been told this is the main route of transmission? And where are educational settings on here?

That is sooo interesting.

I can't see either schools or workplaces on there.

They must both then be magic spaces wherein people don't get infected.

Either that or the government doesn't bother collecting those figures in case they're inconvenient.

So if a teacher has spent 40 hours at school that week, say, but they spent half an hour one day in a supermarket on the way home, then is a positive test for covid going to be blamed on the supermarket visit?

@Appuskidu

the average number of cases per school will be low given that they close the bubbles after one case

Not round here, they aren’t!

Not round here either. They send home desk partners and close contacts.

If for some reason it became known next year that vaccines would not be available for years,
then I suspect the strategy would indeed become herd immunity, not years of SD & local lockdowns

So, for those people who feel it should just rip through the student population , here is a sobering tale:

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-students-in-intensive-care-19068537

I don't think it's that they haven't bothered collecting the data: they know it is there but they won't countenance another shutdown of schools or, perhaps more foolishly, workplaces, and so are looking elsewhere.

I am not convinced myself that hospitality should become the new scapegoat but that one has been brewing (scuse pun!) for a while.

The Edinburgh paper also seems to model a bigger 2nd wave after lifting restrictions but then not reimposing them
However, that is not what is being done, not atm anyway

Most estimates of likely scenarios - not worst case ones - are that the 2nd wave will be milder than the first, because of:

. the knowledge gained about which measures work best and how
. new systems built up for mass testing, track & trace
. treatments / meds developed

Have we put the weekly surveillance on here yet today?

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925324/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_W41_FINAL.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1KTWLRE8245JLZTstdXYJuKouto7_-vDsaaSJ1PzI1cqjfFecQ5BZQo18

Apols if I missed it!

The percentages add up to approx 64 percent on that Norhern MPs slide.

So the remaining percentage would be work places and education?

@herecomesthsun - no, they are specifically not in the list - the tag headline at the top of the slides explicitly mentions them as a priority to keep open, and that this is a list of other options for reducing spread.

The weekly PHE report has data on number of outbreaks in different environments (though not number of cases, which is more interesting).

It also has a graph similar to that above which is "events and activities reported by people testing positive" in which the third highest is "attending childcare educational setting" - I would love to know what they actually mean by that!

I think for primary schools (which are about half of outbreaks in educational settings) they will be sending whole class bubbles home, but not secondary

Thanks @boys3 - those numbers bring it back under 1000/100,000 for now - still horrific, but that felt like a milestone

Or is it 70 percent like they are sayion Twitter?