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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 05/10/2020 12:00

Welcome to thread 22 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date
NHS England Hospital activity
NHs England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
55
NeurotrashWarrior · 08/10/2020 18:00

ShockShockShockShockShock

Coronavirus: Another 1,600 Newcastle students test positive www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-54468127

PracticingPerson · 08/10/2020 18:02

[quote NeurotrashWarrior]ShockShockShockShockShock

Coronavirus: Another 1,600 Newcastle students test positive www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-54468127[/quote]
Oh my goodness the numbers are just Shock

GetAMoveOnTroodon · 08/10/2020 18:05

Did the Manchester nightingale ever fully close? I know they’ve started using the South Wales one again this week

MsWarrensProfession · 08/10/2020 18:06

As I understand it the Nightingales were designed for unconscious and ventilated patients only and aren’t really suitable for conscious patients. They’re being much more discriminating about who they ventilate now they understand more about the disease so things would have to go very wrong indeed to need that sort of mass ventilation.

RedToothBrush · 08/10/2020 18:12

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Did the Manchester nightingale ever fully close? I know they’ve started using the South Wales one again this week
Yes end of june or middle of july i forget which.

But AFTER things started to be reopened.

ceeveebee · 08/10/2020 18:14

At the time that they closed the Manchester nightingale, it was reported as being put on standby in case it was ever needed in a second wave...
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/nightingale-north-west-manchester-close-18371687

PennyRoyal · 08/10/2020 18:30

Interesting article on reinfection:

www.today.com/today/amp/tdna190764

Out of 36 million cases worldwide, just four documented cases of reinfection.

I know we're only 9-12 months into the disease and don't know long term outlooks.

RaggieDolls · 08/10/2020 18:33

Thanks @PennyRoyal. DH and I were talking about this today. Absence of evidence isn't the same as evidence of absence. Surely that's where we are with immunity?

QueenStromba · 08/10/2020 18:40

@PennyRoyal

Interesting article on reinfection:

www.today.com/today/amp/tdna190764

Out of 36 million cases worldwide, just four documented cases of reinfection.

I know we're only 9-12 months into the disease and don't know long term outlooks.

That's really out of date. The European CDC issued a report last month detailing six reinfection cases and I read something earlier saying there are now 36 cases which have been proven through sequencing. That number will be the tip of the iceberg since most people who've had covid haven't had so much as a PCR test let alone a saved sample or sequence data from their infection.
clareykb · 08/10/2020 18:52

Has their been much evidence of the student population spreading much outside their community. Just thinking that students tend to live with other students and not use lots of facilities that locals do, granted not true for shops etc. Just thinking that hopefully student out reals might not lead to massive wider community transmission

PatriciaHolm · 08/10/2020 18:55

@TabbyStar

Richard’s bed occupancy data is really interesting, but it also needs another column which is number of beds on the allocated Covid wards

Could you get some sort of idea from how many beds were occupied during the peak in the spring, presume those figures are around somewhere?

The peak number of "total beds occupied by COVID patients" was on April 12, and was 18,970.

As at Oct 1, that number was 2,069, and according to the dashboard is now 3,044 (England only). Clearly nowhere near the peak, and we are in a very different place to March, but still, it's growing faster than I think any of us would like.

What's also interesting about the data is that it enables some digging on the numbers of people who are admitted because of Covid, and the numbers who are diagnosed in hospital later (presumably due to Covid acquired in hospital).

You have to make some assumptions, but - for example; for Sept 23-30, there were 1,980 "admissions and diagnoses in Hospital" , of who 260 had a positive swab more than 3 days after admissions, so you can possibly assume they are hospital acquired infections. So around 13% of infections may have been hospital acquired.

FeelingBlueAgain · 08/10/2020 19:01

I've seen that statistically the 17-20 and 20-24 age groups account for the majority of positive test results at the moment, but does anyone know whether there's any data that specifically separates out the student/ non-student positives?

Just wondering to what extent university students are currently driving the numbers up.

ceeveebee · 08/10/2020 19:03

The hospital occupancy / capacity rates are very variable by region though - NW is at about 40% of the peak; London is only about 5%.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2020 19:06

The issue is how much spare capacity the NHS has, particularly over winter and in ICU
Worst case - which must be avoided - would be they have to ration treatment of Covid and other urgent cases

Some other European countries normally have much larger spare capacity, so can wait longer before taking additional SD measures

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2020 19:07

Patients can be transferred around the country if need be
During the 1st wave, France used specially adapted high-speed trains to do this

OP posts:
CalmYoBadSelf · 08/10/2020 19:10

@EducatingArti

Has anyone got any response information on the leaked new measures, especially tier 3. The things I've seen don't mention support bubbles still being allowed in tier 3 and I feel desperate about it as I don't know what I would do without mine.
I might be wrong but I didn't read it like that. I thought it said measures in Tier 2 and 3 add on to the Tier 1 measures unless it says it replaces something. I took it as support or childcare bubbles would continue. Either way, try not to worry as nothing is definite till announced

I look after my grandchild so DD and SIL can work. If the bubble arrangement stops there will be lots like them, keyworkers, who cannot work so I think the government will have to think carefully

EducatingArti · 08/10/2020 19:13

@MsWarrensProfession

As I understand it the Nightingales were designed for unconscious and ventilated patients only and aren’t really suitable for conscious patients. They’re being much more discriminating about who they ventilate now they understand more about the disease so things would have to go very wrong indeed to need that sort of mass ventilation.
The Manchester Nightingale was different to the London one and designed to take non intensive care cases.
BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2020 19:17

"So around 13% of infections may have been hospital acquired."

The limited available studies are of the first wave:

Kings College:
1,564 patients from 10 sites in Uk and 1 in Italy, admitted up to 28 April

"12.5% of COVID-19 infections were acquired in hospital"

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30344-3/fulltext

NHS England:
"Up to 20% of hospital patients with Covid-19 caught it at hospital"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19

OP posts:
EducatingArti · 08/10/2020 19:18

@clareykb

Has their been much evidence of the student population spreading much outside their community. Just thinking that students tend to live with other students and not use lots of facilities that locals do, granted not true for shops etc. Just thinking that hopefully student out reals might not lead to massive wider community transmission
Students use public transport a lot.
BigChocFrenzy · 08/10/2020 19:19

@MsWarrensProfession

As I understand it the Nightingales were designed for unconscious and ventilated patients only and aren’t really suitable for conscious patients. They’re being much more discriminating about who they ventilate now they understand more about the disease so things would have to go very wrong indeed to need that sort of mass ventilation.
... The problem with Nightingales is that they were just bulidings provided without additonal nursing staff

Hospitals with patient outflow would have had to send staff with them

  • but of course in such circumstances, staff would be even more of a shortage than equipment / beds
OP posts:
Frazzled2207 · 08/10/2020 19:20

@CalmYoBadSelf
You’re right but they didn’t allow that in March. Presumably people coped and might have to do so again somehow Confused

EducatingArti · 08/10/2020 19:21

They coped by shutting down all elective and non-urgent treatment though and are trying not to do that again!

PatriciaHolm · 08/10/2020 19:21

@BigChocFrenzy

The issue is how much spare capacity the NHS has, particularly over winter and in ICU Worst case - which must be avoided - would be they have to ration treatment of Covid and other urgent cases

Some other European countries normally have much larger spare capacity, so can wait longer before taking additional SD measures

This graph - which has no source other than "NHS internal- only" but numbers wise looks about right - suggests 13% of "oxygen" beds are free (of 79,482 = 10,332) and around 23% of "other" (of 14,055 = 3,232).

Which suggests as a total, there are around 13.5k free beds. Of course, as ceeveebee comments, these are going to be very variable by region. And that's right now, before we really get into winter; which is the key point - Covid itself isn't overwhelming the NHS on its own; the problem comes if we need 10k+ more beds than we do normally during winter. Especially if they are focused geographically.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 22
TwentyViginti · 08/10/2020 19:34

Nottingham now has the highest covid infection rate? Last I looked it was 5th!

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-54460852

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